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Lightning at Red Wings
NHL

Tampa Bay Lightning at Detroit Red Wings

NHL scoreboard
Tampa Bay Lightning
▸6
Detroit Red Wings
3
FinalTV The Spot, FDSNDET·Little Caesars Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Tampa Bay Lightning beat the Detroit Red Wings 6-3. The Red Wings scored first; the Lightning answered. The Lightning led 4-3 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Yanni Gourde's goal at 16:09 of the second period, which took the Lightning's chances from 69% to 87%. Expected goals were close — TBL 4.2, DET 4.0; shots on goal were TBL 27, DET 37. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Red Wings win a replay of these chances 60% of the time. Andrei Vasilevskiy stopped 34 of 37 (.919), 1.0 goals saved above expected; John Gibson stopped 21 of 26 (.808), 1.5 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Yanni Gourde (2 G), 2. Darren Raddysh (1 G, 2 A), 3. Michael Rasmussen (1 G, 1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    TBL
    Y. Gourde2 G
  2. ★★
    TBL
    D. Raddysh1 G, 2 A
  3. ★★★
    DET
    M. Rasmussen1 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
TBLTBL1113927627
DETDET111213013337

Scoring

9 goals

1st period

  1. DET
    J. Compher(4)
    M. Rasmussen (4)
    snapxG 0.07win prob +13 ptsVideo
    0-1
    11:29
  2. TBL
    D. Raddysh(3)PPG
    N. Kucherov (17), J. Guentzel (13)
    slapxG 0.07win prob +11 ptsVideo
    1-1
    17:07

2nd period

  1. TBL
    G. Goncalves(2)
    O. Bjorkstrand (7), N. Paul (2)
    snapxG 0.18win prob +16 ptsVideo
    2-1
    0:34
  2. TBL
    Y. Gourde(4)
    Unassisted
    snapxG 0.23win prob +17 ptsVideo
    3-1
    3:01
  3. DET
    M. Rasmussen(3)
    J. Compher (5)
    backhandxG 0.30win prob +17 ptsVideo
    3-2
    3:13
  4. TBL
    Y. Gourde(5)
    Unassisted
    slapxG 0.06win prob +18 ptsVideo
    4-2
    16:09
  5. DET
    D. Larkin(14)
    L. Raymond (19), S. Edvinsson (4)
    snapxG 0.05win prob +17 ptsVideo
    4-3
    18:26

3rd period

  1. TBL
    J. Guentzel(13)
    D. Raddysh (9), N. Kucherov (18)
    tip-inxG 0.15win prob +13 ptsVideo
    5-3
    12:37
  2. TBL
    B. Hagel(13)EN
    D. Raddysh (10)
    wristxG 0.78win prob +1 ptsVideo
    6-3
    17:13

Penalties

TBL 4 PIM·DET 4 PIM

1st

  • 16:31DETAlex DeBrincat · Slashingdrawn by Jake Guentzel2 min

3rd

  • 9:13TBLBrandon Hagel · Trippingdrawn by Albert Johansson2 min
  • 11:32DETJames van Riemsdyk · Roughingdrawn by Pontus Holmberg2 min
  • 11:32TBLYanni Gourde · Roughingdrawn by James van Riemsdyk2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
DET goalTBL goalFinal: DET 0%

Biggest swing: Yanni Gourde, 2nd 16:09 — TBL 69% → 87%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
P. Kane · On goal · xG 0.43M. Kasper · On goal · xG 0.40M. Rasmussen · Goal · xG 0.30M. Rasmussen · On goal · xG 0.28D. Larkin · On goal · xG 0.19P. Kane · Missed · xG 0.18L. Raymond · On goal · xG 0.17A. DeBrincat · On goal · xG 0.17P. Kane · On goal · xG 0.14D. Larkin · Missed · xG 0.13A. DeBrincat · On goal · xG 0.11J. van Riemsdyk · On goal · xG 0.10N. Danielson · Missed · xG 0.09E. Finnie · On goal · xG 0.09P. Kane · On goal · xG 0.09A. Johansson · On goal · xG 0.08P. Kane · On goal · xG 0.08J. Compher · Goal · xG 0.07J. Compher · Missed · xG 0.06M. Rasmussen · On goal · xG 0.06J. Bernard-Docker · On goal · xG 0.06M. Kasper · On goal · xG 0.05B. Chiarot · On goal · xG 0.05P. Kane · Missed · xG 0.05P. Kane · Missed · xG 0.05J. van Riemsdyk · Missed · xG 0.05S. Edvinsson · On goal · xG 0.05D. Larkin · Goal · xG 0.05D. Larkin · On goal · xG 0.04A. DeBrincat · Missed · xG 0.04A. DeBrincat · On goal · xG 0.03J. Bernard-Docker · On goal · xG 0.03A. Copp · On goal · xG 0.03N. Danielson · Missed · xG 0.03A. Sandin-Pellikka · On goal · xG 0.03B. Chiarot · On goal · xG 0.02M. Seider · On goal · xG 0.02M. Seider · On goal · xG 0.02B. Chiarot · On goal · xG 0.02B. Chiarot · On goal · xG 0.02A. Sandin-Pellikka · On goal · xG 0.02D. Larkin · Missed · xG 0.02J. Bernard-Docker · On goal · xG 0.01J. Compher · On goal · xG 0.01L. Raymond · Missed · xG 0.01J. Compher · On goal · xG 0.01B. Chiarot · On goal · xG 0.00M. Seider · On goal · xG 0.00
DET3 G · 4.0 xG · 48 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

TBLvsDET
4.25 G
All situations
3 G4.0
3.44 G
Even strength
3 G3.6
0.11 G
Power play
0 G0.4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 88 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
TBL40%60%DET

Flurry-adjusted xG 3.28 – 3.88

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

TBLvsDET
27
Shots on goal
37
53%
Faceoffs
47%
1/1
Power play
0/1
4
Penalty minutes
4
15
Hits
20
4
Blocked shots
16
12
Giveaways
12
4
Takeaways
7

Box score

every player line
Tampa Bay Lightning skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
43D. RaddyshD123+230.16110—24:04
90J. MoserD000+220.07000—23:59
78E. LillebergD000010.12120—23:30
51C. D'AstousD000+100.01000—22:56
86N. KucherovR022+240.39000—19:40
59J. GuentzelC112-110.300002518:05
37Y. GourdeC202+240.781024316:21
28Z. GirgensonsC000+210.111003315:54
71A. CirelliC000+110.190007315:54
38B. HagelL101+151.45202—15:19
29P. HolmbergR000+210.14100—15:16
22O. BjorkstrandR011000.06210—15:09
20N. PaulL011-110.100004614:00
17D. JamesC000-110.010006313:56
16S. SantiniD000-100.00100—13:04
67D. CarlileD000010.15300—11:59
93G. GoncalvesC101-210.19000011:29
42C. DouglasC000000.00200005:25
Tampa Bay Lightning goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
88A. Vasilevskiy(W)37343.9194.01+1.0160:00

Season series

TBL leads 3-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).