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Lightning at Red Wings
NHL

Tampa Bay Lightning at Detroit Red Wings

Final/OTTV The Spot, FDSNDET·Little Caesars Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Detroit Red Wings beat the Tampa Bay Lightning 2-1 in overtime, Dylan Larkin scoring at 3:36. The Red Wings scored first and never trailed. The Red Wings led 1-0 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Dylan Larkin's goal at 3:36 of overtime, which took the Red Wings' chances from 51% to 100%. Expected goals favored the Lightning, 3.0 to 2.7; shots on goal were TBL 32, DET 31. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Lightning win a replay of these chances 53% of the time. Andrei Vasilevskiy stopped 29 of 31 (.935), 0.7 goals saved above expected; John Gibson stopped 31 of 32 (.969), 2.0 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Dylan Larkin (1 G, 1 A), 2. John Gibson (31 saves, .969), 3. Andrei Vasilevskiy (29 saves, .935).

Three stars

  1. ★
    DET
    D. Larkin1 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    DET
    J. Gibson31 saves, .969
  3. ★★★
    TBL
    A. Vasilevskiy29 saves, .935

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdOTT
TBLTBL060511902132
DETDET1120100613231

Scoring

3 goals

1st period

  1. DET
    wristxG 0.02win prob +14 ptsVideo
    0-1
    13:02

3rd period

  1. TBL
    slapxG 0.03win prob +40 ptsVideo
    1-1
    16:17

Overtime

  1. DET
    snapxG 0.24win prob +49 ptsVideo
    1-2
    3:36

Penalties

TBL 6 PIM·DET 6 PIM

1st

  • 8:53DETJacob Bernard-Docker · High stickingdrawn by Brandon Hagel2 min

2nd

  • 0:21DETAxel Sandin-Pellikka · Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  • 5:09TBLYanni Gourde · Roughingdrawn by Andrew Copp2 min
  • 15:16DETMichael Brandsegg-Nygård · Holdingdrawn by Brayden Point2 min
  • 17:28TBLAnthony Cirelli · Slashingdrawn by Moritz Seider2 min

3rd

  • 4:04TBLConor Geekie · Delaying game puck over glass2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
DET goalTBL goalFinal: DET 100%

Biggest swing: Dylan Larkin, OT 3:36 — DET 51% → 100%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
D. Larkin · Goal · xG 0.24S. Edvinsson · Missed · xG 0.16J. van Riemsdyk · On goal · xG 0.15E. Soderblom · Missed · xG 0.14M. Rasmussen · On goal · xG 0.13E. Finnie · On goal · xG 0.13E. Soderblom · On goal · xG 0.12J. Compher · Missed · xG 0.12M. Brandsegg-Nygård · On goal · xG 0.11E. Finnie · On goal · xG 0.09J. van Riemsdyk · On goal · xG 0.09M. Kasper · On goal · xG 0.09E. Finnie · On goal · xG 0.08M. Kasper · Missed · xG 0.08D. Larkin · On goal · xG 0.08M. Brandsegg-Nygård · On goal · xG 0.07P. Kane · Missed · xG 0.07E. Soderblom · Missed · xG 0.06M. Appleton · Missed · xG 0.06M. Rasmussen · Missed · xG 0.06D. Larkin · Missed · xG 0.06D. Larkin · On goal · xG 0.05J. Compher · On goal · xG 0.05M. Kasper · Missed · xG 0.03M. Seider · On goal · xG 0.03M. Seider · Missed · xG 0.03B. Chiarot · On goal · xG 0.03D. Larkin · On goal · xG 0.03P. Kane · On goal · xG 0.03M. Seider · Missed · xG 0.02M. Seider · On goal · xG 0.02S. Edvinsson · Missed · xG 0.02A. Sandin-Pellikka · Goal · xG 0.02A. Sandin-Pellikka · On goal · xG 0.02B. Chiarot · On goal · xG 0.02B. Chiarot · Missed · xG 0.01P. Kane · On goal · xG 0.01M. Brandsegg-Nygård · On goal · xG 0.01M. Seider · Missed · xG 0.01M. Rasmussen · On goal · xG 0.01B. Chiarot · On goal · xG 0.01A. Johansson · On goal · xG 0.01M. Brandsegg-Nygård · On goal · xG 0.01J. van Riemsdyk · On goal · xG 0.01A. Copp · On goal · xG 0.01A. Sandin-Pellikka · Missed · xG 0.00M. Seider · On goal · xG 0.00
DET2 G · 2.7 xG · 47 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

TBLvsDET
3.01 G
All situations
2 G2.7
2.61 G
Even strength
2 G2.2
0.40 G
Power play
0 G0.5
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 97 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
TBL53%47%DET

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.81 – 2.65

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

TBLvsDET
32
Shots on goal
31
44%
Faceoffs
56%
0/3
Power play
0/3
6
Penalty minutes
6
20
Hits
27
13
Blocked shots
22
15
Giveaways
17
4
Takeaways
4

Box score

every player line
Tampa Bay Lightning skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
77V. HedmanD011010.27210—26:12
59J. GuentzelC000-250.500002924:56
38B. HagelL000-230.51110—24:11
27R. McDonaghD000010.08020—22:16
21B. PointC000-130.141002921:26
90J. MoserD101+120.05100—21:21
81E. CernakD000010.02120—20:44
71A. CirelliC000+110.090125019:37
43D. RaddyshD000-120.18200—15:56
37Y. GourdeC000000.001024315:49
93G. GoncalvesC000+110.02020015:06
22O. BjorkstrandR000030.13100—14:51
29P. HolmbergR000000.02100—13:19
14C. GeekieC011+110.0132210012:39
78E. LillebergD000-110.19310—11:49
41M. ChaffeeR000030.32210—10:18
62J. FinleyC000030.371005807:51
42C. DouglasC000010.12000006:27
Tampa Bay Lightning goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
88A. Vasilevskiy(O)31292.9352.68+0.6863:36

Season series

TBL leads 3-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).