Tampa Bay Lightning at Detroit Red Wings
Recap
written from the game dataThe Detroit Red Wings beat the Tampa Bay Lightning 2-1 in overtime, Dylan Larkin scoring at 3:36. The Red Wings scored first and never trailed. The Red Wings led 1-0 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Dylan Larkin's goal at 3:36 of overtime, which took the Red Wings' chances from 51% to 100%. Expected goals favored the Lightning, 3.0 to 2.7; shots on goal were TBL 32, DET 31. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Lightning win a replay of these chances 53% of the time. Andrei Vasilevskiy stopped 29 of 31 (.935), 0.7 goals saved above expected; John Gibson stopped 31 of 32 (.969), 2.0 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Dylan Larkin (1 G, 1 A), 2. John Gibson (31 saves, .969), 3. Andrei Vasilevskiy (29 saves, .935).
Three stars
- ★D. Larkin1 G, 1 A

- ★★J. Gibson31 saves, .969

- ★★★A. Vasilevskiy29 saves, .935

Line score
goals · shots on goal beneathScoring
3 goals1st period
0-113:02
3rd period
1-116:17
Overtime
1-23:36
Penalties
1st
- 8:53
Jacob Bernard-Docker · High stickingdrawn by Brandon Hagel2 min
2nd
- 0:21
Axel Sandin-Pellikka · Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- 5:09
Yanni Gourde · Roughingdrawn by Andrew Copp2 min
- 15:16
Michael Brandsegg-Nygård · Holdingdrawn by Brayden Point2 min
- 17:28
Anthony Cirelli · Slashingdrawn by Moritz Seider2 min
3rd
- 4:04
Conor Geekie · Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Win probability
ours · the whole gameBiggest swing: Dylan Larkin, OT 3:36 — 51% → 100%
Shot map
unblocked attempts · size = our xGExpected goals
- 3.01 G
- All situations
- 2 G2.7
- 2.61 G
- Even strength
- 2 G2.2
- 0.40 G
- Power play
- 0 G0.5
- 0.00 G
- Shorthanded
- 0 G0.0
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 97 unblocked attempts.
Deserve to win
on the chances createdFlurry-adjusted xG 2.81 – 2.65
How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.
Team stats
- 32
- Shots on goal
- 31
- 44%
- Faceoffs
- 56%
- 0/3
- Power play
- 0/3
- 6
- Penalty minutes
- 6
- 20
- Hits
- 27
- 13
- Blocked shots
- 22
- 15
- Giveaways
- 17
- 4
- Takeaways
- 4
Box score
every player line
Season series
TBL leads 3-1
1@
2OTthis game
6@
3Final
1@
4Final
3@
4OTFinal
Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).




















