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Senators at Maple Leafs
NHL

Ottawa Senators at Toronto Maple Leafs

NHL scoreboard
Ottawa Senators
2
Toronto Maple Leafs
▸6
FinalTV ESPN2, CBC·Scotiabank Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Toronto Maple Leafs beat the Ottawa Senators 6-2. The Maple Leafs scored first and never trailed. The Maple Leafs led 4-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Drake Batherson's goal at 16:18 of the first period, which took the Senators' chances from 18% to 32%. Expected goals were close — OTT 3.0, TOR 3.2; shots on goal were OTT 33, TOR 24. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Maple Leafs win a replay of these chances 52% of the time. Linus Ullmark stopped 18 of 24 (.750), 2.8 goals below expected; Anthony Stolarz stopped 31 of 33 (.939), 1.0 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Mitch Marner (1 G, 2 A), 2. John Tavares (1 G, 1 A), 3. Anthony Stolarz (31 saves, .939).

Three stars

  1. ★
    TOR
    M. Marner1 G, 2 A
  2. ★★
    TOR
    J. Tavares1 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    TOR
    A. Stolarz31 saves, .939

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
OTTOTT11308112233
TORTOR2521326624

Scoring

8 goals

1st period

  1. TOR
    O. Ekman-Larsson(1)
    S. Laughton (1), C. Jarnkrok (1)
    wristxG 0.10win prob +12 ptsVideo
    0-1
    7:09
  2. TOR
    M. Marner(1)
    A. Matthews (1)
    wristxG 0.21win prob +14 ptsVideo
    0-2
    12:18
  3. OTT
    D. Batherson(1)
    D. Cozens (1), D. Perron (1)
    snapxG 0.39win prob +14 ptsVideo
    1-2
    16:18

2nd period

  1. TOR
    J. Tavares(1)PPG
    W. Nylander (1), M. Marner (1)
    wristxG 0.25win prob +11 ptsVideo
    1-3
    4:07
  2. TOR
    W. Nylander(1)PPG
    J. Tavares (1)
    wristxG 0.12win prob +7 ptsVideo
    1-4
    7:19

3rd period

  1. OTT
    R. Greig(1)
    M. Amadio (1), S. Pinto (1)
    snapxG 0.30win prob +5 ptsVideo
    2-4
    4:00
  2. TOR
    M. Rielly(1)
    N. Robertson (1), B. McMann (1)
    wristxG 0.02win prob +5 ptsVideo
    2-5
    4:45
  3. TOR
    M. Knies(1)PPG
    A. Matthews (2), M. Marner (2)
    wristxG 0.33Video
    2-6
    13:13

Penalties

OTT 38 PIM·TOR 18 PIM

2nd

  • 3:58OTTTim Stützle · Boardingdrawn by Chris Tanev2 min
  • 6:00OTTRidly Greig · Cross checkingdrawn by John Tavares2 min
  • 7:16OTTAdam Gaudette · Cross checkingdrawn by Auston Matthews2 min
  • 12:42TORWilliam Nylander · Hookingdrawn by Dylan Cozens2 min
  • 19:47OTTDrake Batherson · Trippingdrawn by Calle Jarnkrok2 min
  • 19:47OTTBrady Tkachuk · Roughingdrawn by Scott Laughton2 min
  • 19:47TORScott Laughton · Roughingdrawn by Brady Tkachuk2 min

3rd

  • 13:05OTTDrake Batherson · Cross checkingdrawn by Oliver Ekman-Larsson2 min
  • 13:05OTTDylan Cozens · Misconduct10 min
  • 14:27OTTTyler Kleven · High stickingdrawn by Scott Laughton2 min
  • 16:42TOROliver Ekman-Larsson · Trippingdrawn by Tim Stützle2 min
  • 19:16TORNick Robertson · Roughingdrawn by Matthew Highmore2 min
  • 19:16OTTAdam Gaudette · Roughingdrawn by Max Domi2 min
  • 19:16OTTMichael Amadio · Roughingdrawn by Bobby McMann2 min
  • 19:16TORMax Domi · Roughingdrawn by Adam Gaudette2 min
  • 19:16TORSimon Benoit · Roughingdrawn by Matthew Highmore2 min
  • 19:16OTTMatthew Highmore · Roughingdrawn by Simon Benoit2 min
  • 19:16TORBobby McMann · Roughingdrawn by Nikolas Matinpalo2 min
  • 19:16OTTNikolas Matinpalo · Roughingdrawn by Bobby McMann2 min
  • 19:16TORBrandon Carlo · Roughingdrawn by Tyler Kleven2 min
  • 19:16OTTTyler Kleven · Roughingdrawn by Brandon Carlo2 min
  • 19:16OTTMatthew Highmore · Roughingdrawn by Nick Robertson2 min
  • 19:16TORNick Robertson · High stickingdrawn by Nikolas Matinpalo2 min
  • 20:00OTTNick Jensen · Roughingdrawn by Pontus Holmberg2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
TOR goalOTT goalFinal: TOR 100%

Biggest swing: Drake Batherson, 1st 16:18 — OTT 18% → 32%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.52M. Knies · Goal · xG 0.33C. Jarnkrok · Missed · xG 0.29J. Tavares · Goal · xG 0.25M. Marner · Goal · xG 0.21J. Tavares · On goal · xG 0.15A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.14M. Knies · Missed · xG 0.12W. Nylander · Goal · xG 0.12J. Tavares · On goal · xG 0.11O. Ekman-Larsson · Goal · xG 0.10M. Knies · On goal · xG 0.09A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.08J. Tavares · On goal · xG 0.08J. Tavares · On goal · xG 0.08A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.07O. Ekman-Larsson · On goal · xG 0.05A. Matthews · Missed · xG 0.04S. Laughton · Missed · xG 0.04P. Holmberg · Missed · xG 0.04S. Lorentz · Missed · xG 0.04S. Laughton · Missed · xG 0.03W. Nylander · On goal · xG 0.03M. Domi · On goal · xG 0.03O. Ekman-Larsson · On goal · xG 0.03B. McMann · Missed · xG 0.02J. Tavares · On goal · xG 0.02O. Ekman-Larsson · On goal · xG 0.02A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.02M. Rielly · Goal · xG 0.02A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.01O. Ekman-Larsson · Missed · xG 0.01M. Rielly · Missed · xG 0.01M. Rielly · On goal · xG 0.01S. Laughton · Missed · xG 0.01S. Laughton · Missed · xG 0.01O. Ekman-Larsson · Missed · xG 0.01
TOR6 G · 3.2 xG · 37 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

OTTvsTOR
3.02 G
All situations
6 G3.2
2.02 G
Even strength
3 G1.2
1.00 G
Power play
3 G2.1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 91 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
OTT48%52%TOR

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.93 – 3.04

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

OTTvsTOR
33
Shots on goal
24
44%
Faceoffs
56%
0/2
Power play
3/6
38
Penalty minutes
18
56
Hits
30
12
Blocked shots
18
17
Giveaways
16
3
Takeaways
8

Box score

every player line
Ottawa Senators skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
85J. SandersonD000+130.09020—26:39
72T. ChabotD000-220.03210—25:47
2A. ZubD000+130.07010—20:57
3N. JensenD000-200.03302—20:52
12S. PintoC011+130.315104319:23
28C. GirouxR000-110.052003618:15
71R. GreigC101+120.351025017:51
18T. StützleC000-130.199125617:06
7B. TkachukL000050.307125016:58
57D. PerronL011010.45300—15:15
19D. BathersonR101040.61604—15:07
22M. AmadioR011+110.13302—13:26
24D. CozensC011020.1351104412:28
33N. MatinpaloD000010.01002—11:09
43T. KlevenD000000.00104—11:07
20F. ZetterlundL000-110.24400—10:49
81A. GaudetteR000-100.002344010:11
15M. HighmoreC000-110.03314009:10
Ottawa Senators goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
35L. Ullmark(L)24186.7503.24-2.7659:54

Series

TOR leads 4-2

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).