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Senators at Maple Leafs
NHL

Ottawa Senators at Toronto Maple Leafs

NHL scoreboard
Ottawa Senators
2
Toronto Maple Leafs
▸3
Final/OTTV ESPN2, CBC·Scotiabank Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Toronto Maple Leafs beat the Ottawa Senators 3-2 in overtime, Max Domi scoring at 3:09. The Maple Leafs scored first and never trailed. The Maple Leafs led 2-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Max Domi's goal at 3:09 of overtime, which took the Maple Leafs' chances from 52% to 100%. Expected goals were close — OTT 1.8, TOR 1.7; shots on goal were OTT 28, TOR 21. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Senators win a replay of these chances 52% of the time. Linus Ullmark stopped 18 of 21 (.857), 1.3 goals below expected; Anthony Stolarz stopped 26 of 28 (.929). Three stars: 1. Max Domi (1 G), 2. John Tavares (1 G, 1 A), 3. Morgan Rielly (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    TOR
    M. Domi1 G
  2. ★★
    TOR
    J. Tavares1 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    TOR
    M. Rielly1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdOTT
OTTOTT0101131401228
TORTOR27030912321

Scoring

5 goals

1st period

  1. TOR
    M. Rielly(2)
    W. Nylander (2), J. Tavares (2)
    deflectedxG 0.06win prob +12 ptsVideo
    0-1
    3:43
  2. TOR
    J. Tavares(2)PPG
    M. Marner (3), A. Matthews (3)
    wristxG 0.06win prob +11 ptsVideo
    0-2
    8:20

2nd period

  1. OTT
    B. Tkachuk(1)PPG
    C. Giroux (1), T. Chabot (1)
    backhandxG 0.06win prob +12 ptsVideo
    1-2
    15:41

3rd period

  1. OTT
    A. Gaudette(1)
    T. Kleven (1), T. Stützle (1)
    tip-inxG 0.06win prob +36 ptsVideo
    2-2
    14:47

Overtime

  1. TOR
    M. Domi(1)
    S. Benoit (1)
    wristxG 0.14win prob +48 ptsVideo
    2-3
    3:09

Penalties

OTT 4 PIM·TOR 8 PIM

1st

  • 4:45TORChris Tanev · High stickingdrawn by Brady Tkachuk2 min
  • 8:02OTTArtem Zub · Trippingdrawn by Pontus Holmberg2 min

2nd

  • 2:56TORCalle Jarnkrok · Trippingdrawn by Tim Stützle2 min
  • 4:54TORAnthony Stolarz · Interferencedrawn by Ridly Greig2 min
  • 4:54OTTRidly Greig · Roughingdrawn by Anthony Stolarz2 min
  • 14:43TORNick Robertson · High stickingdrawn by Tyler Kleven2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
TOR goalOTT goalFinal: TOR 100%

Biggest swing: Max Domi, OT 3:09 — TOR 52% → 100%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
M. Marner · Missed · xG 0.26P. Holmberg · Missed · xG 0.22M. Knies · On goal · xG 0.16M. Domi · Goal · xG 0.14A. Matthews · Missed · xG 0.12P. Holmberg · On goal · xG 0.09A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.08J. Tavares · Goal · xG 0.06M. Rielly · Goal · xG 0.06O. Ekman-Larsson · Missed · xG 0.05A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.04P. Holmberg · Missed · xG 0.04M. Domi · Missed · xG 0.04W. Nylander · On goal · xG 0.04M. Domi · On goal · xG 0.03W. Nylander · On goal · xG 0.03A. Matthews · Missed · xG 0.03M. Knies · Missed · xG 0.03M. Marner · On goal · xG 0.02J. McCabe · Missed · xG 0.02M. Rielly · On goal · xG 0.02P. Holmberg · On goal · xG 0.02W. Nylander · On goal · xG 0.02M. Knies · Missed · xG 0.01P. Holmberg · On goal · xG 0.01M. Marner · Missed · xG 0.01J. McCabe · Missed · xG 0.01A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.01M. Domi · Missed · xG 0.01B. Carlo · On goal · xG 0.01M. Rielly · On goal · xG 0.01A. Matthews · Missed · xG 0.01M. Rielly · Missed · xG 0.00B. McMann · On goal · xG 0.00N. Robertson · On goal · xG 0.00J. McCabe · Missed · xG 0.00B. Carlo · On goal · xG 0.00
TOR3 G · 1.7 xG · 37 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

OTTvsTOR
1.82 G
All situations
3 G1.7
1.01 G
Even strength
2 G1.7
0.81 G
Power play
1 G0.1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 80 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
OTT52%48%TOR

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.81 – 1.71

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

OTTvsTOR
28
Shots on goal
21
47%
Faceoffs
53%
1/3
Power play
1/1
4
Penalty minutes
8
44
Hits
25
6
Blocked shots
32
11
Giveaways
7
6
Takeaways
7

Box score

every player line
Ottawa Senators skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
85J. SandersonD000020.03010—27:51
72T. ChabotD011-230.07100—26:00
2A. ZubD000000.00122—24:13
18T. StützleC011+130.306006722:17
19D. BathersonR000-210.19410—21:01
7B. TkachukL101050.424002020:18
3N. JensenD000-120.07000—20:11
12S. PintoC000000.081104219:39
22M. AmadioR000000.0270010019:11
24D. CozensC000-250.355006017:52
71R. GreigC000010.09202017:00
28C. GirouxR011010.041005616:43
20F. ZetterlundL000-120.08200—15:17
43T. KlevenD011000.00500—12:00
33N. MatinpaloD000+110.02000—11:11
57D. PerronL000000.00200—10:50
21N. CousinsC000010.01200007:49
81A. GaudetteR101+110.061105006:04
Ottawa Senators goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
35L. Ullmark(L)21183.8571.72-1.2863:09

Series

TOR leads 4-2

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).