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Maple Leafs at Senators
NHL

Toronto Maple Leafs at Ottawa Senators

NHL scoreboard
Toronto Maple Leafs
▸4
Ottawa Senators
2
FinalTV TBS, MAX·Canadian Tire Centre

Recap

written from the game data

The Toronto Maple Leafs beat the Ottawa Senators 4-2. The Maple Leafs scored first and never trailed. The Maple Leafs led 2-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Max Pacioretty's goal at 14:21 of the third period, which took the Maple Leafs' chances from 48% to 87%. Expected goals favored the Maple Leafs, 2.5 to 1.9; shots on goal were TOR 23, OTT 23. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Senators win a replay of these chances 54% of the time. Anthony Stolarz stopped 21 of 23 (.913); Linus Ullmark stopped 19 of 22 (.864), 1.2 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. William Nylander (2 G, 1 A), 2. Max Pacioretty (1 G, 1 A), 3. Thomas Chabot (2 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    TOR
    W. Nylander2 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    TOR
    M. Pacioretty1 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    OTT
    T. Chabot2 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
TORTOR171927423
OTTOTT0318112223

Scoring

6 goals

1st period

  1. TOR
    A. Matthews(2)PPG
    M. Marner (7), W. Nylander (6)
    wristxG 0.04win prob +11 ptsVideo
    1-0
    18:50

2nd period

  1. TOR
    W. Nylander(2)
    M. Pacioretty (1)
    wristxG 0.06win prob +17 ptsVideo
    2-0
    0:43
  2. OTT
    B. Tkachuk(4)
    T. Chabot (2), C. Giroux (4)
    tip-inxG 0.06win prob +17 ptsVideo
    2-1
    7:28

3rd period

  1. OTT
    D. Perron(2)
    T. Chabot (3)
    backhandxG 0.04win prob +33 ptsVideo
    2-2
    12:40
  2. TOR
    M. Pacioretty(1)
    M. Domi (1), P. Holmberg (1)
    wristxG 0.04win prob +39 ptsVideo
    3-2
    14:21
  3. TOR
    W. Nylander(3)EN
    S. Laughton (2)
    backhandxG 0.54win prob +3 ptsVideo
    4-2
    19:41

Penalties

TOR 4 PIM·OTT 2 PIM

1st

  • 7:48TORJohn Tavares · High stickingdrawn by Claude Giroux2 min
  • 18:01OTTBrady Tkachuk · Interferencedrawn by Brandon Carlo2 min

3rd

  • 10:33TORMorgan Rielly · Interferencedrawn by Fabian Zetterlund2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
OTT goalTOR goalFinal: OTT 0%

Biggest swing: Max Pacioretty, 3rd 14:21 — TOR 48% → 87%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
D. Cozens · Missed · xG 0.19C. Giroux · Missed · xG 0.17T. Stützle · Missed · xG 0.14T. Stützle · On goal · xG 0.13R. Greig · On goal · xG 0.12D. Perron · On goal · xG 0.11B. Tkachuk · Missed · xG 0.09D. Perron · On goal · xG 0.08M. Amadio · On goal · xG 0.08F. Zetterlund · Missed · xG 0.08S. Pinto · On goal · xG 0.08M. Amadio · On goal · xG 0.07T. Stützle · On goal · xG 0.06B. Tkachuk · Goal · xG 0.06F. Zetterlund · On goal · xG 0.06D. Cozens · On goal · xG 0.05N. Matinpalo · Missed · xG 0.04D. Perron · Goal · xG 0.04B. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.03T. Stützle · On goal · xG 0.03C. Giroux · Missed · xG 0.02F. Zetterlund · On goal · xG 0.02T. Stützle · Missed · xG 0.02T. Stützle · Missed · xG 0.02T. Chabot · On goal · xG 0.02D. Batherson · Missed · xG 0.02T. Kleven · On goal · xG 0.02F. Zetterlund · On goal · xG 0.02T. Chabot · On goal · xG 0.01N. Matinpalo · On goal · xG 0.01R. Greig · On goal · xG 0.01J. Sanderson · Missed · xG 0.01B. Tkachuk · Missed · xG 0.01T. Chabot · On goal · xG 0.01T. Chabot · On goal · xG 0.00
OTT2 G · 1.9 xG · 35 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

TORvsOTT
2.53 G
All situations
2 G1.9
1.72 G
Even strength
2 G1.8
0.01 G
Power play
0 G0.1
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 75 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
TOR46%54%OTT

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.76 – 1.93

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

TORvsOTT
23
Shots on goal
23
60%
Faceoffs
40%
1/1
Power play
0/2
4
Penalty minutes
2
43
Hits
56
16
Blocked shots
11
23
Giveaways
10
4
Takeaways
3

Box score

every player line
Toronto Maple Leafs skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
25B. CarloD000010.13010—22:51
22J. McCabeD000010.02340—22:44
44M. RiellyD000010.01012—19:51
2S. BenoitD000010.05230—19:48
88W. NylanderR213+140.932006719:07
23M. KniesL000-120.09400—18:57
16M. MarnerR011020.12500—18:53
34A. MatthewsC101030.163107318:29
8C. TanevD000+100.00010—18:15
91J. TavaresC000+110.162126317:45
95O. Ekman-LarssonD000010.01300—15:16
67M. PaciorettyL112+220.25710—13:49
24S. LaughtonC011+110.243205013:30
74B. McMannC000020.27300012:25
18S. LorentzC000-100.0040010012:10
11M. DomiC011+110.051002010:55
19C. JarnkrokC000-100.00100010:55
29P. HolmbergR011+100.01010—10:20
Toronto Maple Leafs goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
41A. Stolarz(W)23212.9131.94-0.0660:00

Series

TOR leads 4-2

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).