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Red Wings at Maple Leafs
NHL

Detroit Red Wings at Toronto Maple Leafs

NHL scoreboard
Detroit Red Wings
3
Toronto Maple Leafs
▸4
Final/OTTV FDSNDET, TSN4·Scotiabank Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Toronto Maple Leafs beat the Detroit Red Wings 4-3 in overtime, Scott Laughton scoring at 0:56. The Maple Leafs came back from two goals down. The Red Wings led 3-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Chris Tanev's goal at 19:58 of the third period, which took the Maple Leafs' chances from 3% to 51%. Expected goals favored the Maple Leafs, 2.6 to 2.0; shots on goal were DET 34, TOR 20. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Maple Leafs win a replay of these chances 61% of the time. Cam Talbot stopped 16 of 20 (.800), 1.4 goals below expected; Joseph Woll stopped 31 of 34 (.912), 1.0 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Scott Laughton (1 G), 2. Mitch Marner (2 A), 3. Philippe Myers (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    TOR
    S. Laughton1 G
  2. ★★
    TOR
    M. Marner2 A
  3. ★★★
    TOR
    P. Myers1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdOTT
DETDET1132150600334
TORTOR18042711420

Scoring

7 goals

1st period

  1. TOR
    A. Matthews(33)
    M. Knies (28), M. Marner (74)
    wristxG 0.20win prob +15 ptsVideo
    0-1
    17:53
  2. DET
    A. Watson(3)
    J. Holl (6)
    backhandxG 0.21win prob +15 ptsVideo
    1-1
    19:19

2nd period

  1. DET
    J. Holl(2)
    M. Kasper (18), V. Tarasenko (22)
    wristxG 0.01win prob +16 ptsVideo
    2-1
    2:16
  2. DET
    A. DeBrincat(39)PPG
    M. Seider (38), P. Kane (38)
    slapxG 0.08win prob +13 ptsVideo
    3-1
    5:50

3rd period

  1. TOR
    P. Myers(2)
    S. Lorentz (11), C. Jarnkrok (6)
    wristxG 0.08win prob +17 ptsVideo
    3-2
    3:43
  2. TOR
    C. Tanev(3)
    M. Marner (75), P. Holmberg (12)
    wristxG 0.13win prob +49 ptsVideo
    3-3
    19:58

Overtime

  1. TOR
    S. Laughton(13)
    D. Mermis (1), M. Knies (29)
    wristxG 0.53win prob +49 ptsVideo
    3-4
    0:56

Penalties

DET 4 PIM·TOR 4 PIM

2nd

  • 5:06TORJohn Tavares · Holdingdrawn by Moritz Seider2 min
  • 7:53DETMarco Kasper · Trippingdrawn by Chris Tanev2 min
  • 8:03TORJohn Tavares · Trippingdrawn by Tyler Motte2 min
  • 14:25DETWilliam Lagesson · Interferencedrawn by Auston Matthews2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
TOR goalDET goalFinal: TOR 100%

Biggest swing: Chris Tanev, 3rd 19:58 — TOR 3% → 51%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
S. Laughton · Goal · xG 0.53S. Lorentz · On goal · xG 0.36B. McMann · On goal · xG 0.24A. Matthews · Goal · xG 0.20N. Robertson · Missed · xG 0.16C. Tanev · Goal · xG 0.13M. Knies · Missed · xG 0.10C. Jarnkrok · Missed · xG 0.09D. Mermis · Missed · xG 0.08S. Laughton · On goal · xG 0.08P. Holmberg · Missed · xG 0.08S. Lorentz · On goal · xG 0.08P. Myers · Goal · xG 0.08S. Benoit · On goal · xG 0.06P. Holmberg · Missed · xG 0.05S. Lorentz · Missed · xG 0.04S. Laughton · On goal · xG 0.03J. Tavares · On goal · xG 0.03P. Myers · On goal · xG 0.03P. Myers · Missed · xG 0.03B. McMann · On goal · xG 0.03S. Lorentz · On goal · xG 0.02J. Tavares · Missed · xG 0.02S. Benoit · On goal · xG 0.01S. Lorentz · Missed · xG 0.01B. Carlo · On goal · xG 0.01N. Robertson · On goal · xG 0.01D. Mermis · On goal · xG 0.01P. Holmberg · Missed · xG 0.01P. Myers · On goal · xG 0.01S. Lorentz · On goal · xG 0.00
TOR4 G · 2.6 xG · 31 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

DETvsTOR
2.03 G
All situations
4 G2.6
1.92 G
Even strength
4 G2.4
0.11 G
Power play
0 G0.2
0.10 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 72 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
DET39%61%TOR

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.02 – 2.55

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

DETvsTOR
34
Shots on goal
20
36%
Faceoffs
64%
1/2
Power play
0/2
4
Penalty minutes
4
13
Hits
17
16
Blocked shots
11
14
Giveaways
20
4
Takeaways
7

Box score

every player line
Detroit Red Wings skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
77S. EdvinssonD000-310.06020—24:21
53M. SeiderD011-230.10220—23:35
20A. JohanssonD000-100.06010—19:56
8B. ChiarotD000-110.01000—19:20
88P. KaneR011-210.03000—18:26
3J. HollD112+240.07140—17:52
93A. DeBrincatR101+130.29020—17:12
92M. KasperC011+160.233023016:37
71D. LarkinC000-210.030102516:36
37J. CompherL000-110.041004116:27
27M. RasmussenC000-130.28400015:45
84W. LagessonD000+210.02002—15:22
11V. TarasenkoR011+110.00110—15:05
14T. MotteC000030.170104015:03
15C. SmithC000000.00110014:39
24A. WatsonL101040.54010—14:00
48J. BerggrenR000-100.00000—12:47
23L. RaymondL000-110.10000—05:45
Detroit Red Wings goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
39C. Talbot(O)20164.8002.63-1.3760:56

Season series

TOR leads 3-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).