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Maple Leafs at Red Wings
NHL

Toronto Maple Leafs at Detroit Red Wings

NHL scoreboard
Toronto Maple Leafs
2
Detroit Red Wings
▸4
FinalTV NHLN, FDSNDET·Little Caesars Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Detroit Red Wings beat the Toronto Maple Leafs 4-2. The Red Wings scored first and never trailed. The Red Wings led 2-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Jeff Petry's goal at 1:51 of the third period, which took the Red Wings' chances from 52% to 77%. Expected goals favored the Red Wings, 4.3 to 2.6; shots on goal were TOR 25, DET 26. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Red Wings win a replay of these chances 58% of the time. Joseph Woll stopped 22 of 25 (.880); Ville Husso stopped 23 of 25 (.920), 0.6 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Jeff Petry (1 G, 1 A), 2. Moritz Seider (1 G), 3. Mitch Marner (2 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    DET
    J. Petry1 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    DET
    M. Seider1 G
  3. ★★★
    TOR
    M. Marner2 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
TORTOR0611514225
DETDET1101927426

Scoring

6 goals

1st period

  1. DET
    M. Rasmussen(5)
    J. Petry (4), J. Veleno (2)
    deflectedxG 0.12win prob +13 ptsVideo
    0-1
    9:07

2nd period

  1. TOR
    A. Matthews(10)PPG
    M. Marner (29), W. Nylander (12)
    slapxG 0.13win prob +14 ptsVideo
    1-1
    11:40
  2. DET
    M. Seider(4)
    A. Copp (6), P. Kane (8)
    wristxG 0.07win prob +23 ptsVideo
    1-2
    19:42

3rd period

  1. TOR
    M. Knies(11)
    M. Marner (30), J. McCabe (7)
    tip-inxG 0.07win prob +24 ptsVideo
    2-2
    1:07
  2. DET
    J. Petry(1)
    J. Compher (11)
    wristxG 0.27win prob +24 ptsVideo
    2-3
    1:51
  3. DET
    L. Raymond(12)EN
    D. Larkin (12)
    wristxG 0.93win prob +2 ptsVideo
    2-4
    19:58

Penalties

TOR 6 PIM·DET 4 PIM

1st

  • 0:42TORMax Pacioretty · Kneeingdrawn by Alex DeBrincat2 min
  • 4:52DETPatrick Kane · Holdingdrawn by William Nylander2 min

2nd

  • 10:53DETJonatan Berggren · Cross checkingdrawn by Connor Dewar2 min

3rd

  • 5:59TORConor Timmins · Trippingdrawn by Jeff Petry2 min
  • 8:09TORMitch Marner · Trippingdrawn by Alex DeBrincat2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
DET goalTOR goalFinal: DET 100%

Biggest swing: Jeff Petry, 3rd 1:51 — DET 52% → 77%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
L. Raymond · Goal · xG 0.93B. Chiarot · On goal · xG 0.37J. Compher · Missed · xG 0.32J. Petry · Goal · xG 0.27M. Rasmussen · On goal · xG 0.26A. Copp · On goal · xG 0.24M. Seider · Missed · xG 0.20V. Tarasenko · On goal · xG 0.15M. Rasmussen · Goal · xG 0.12T. Motte · Missed · xG 0.12J. Petry · On goal · xG 0.10M. Rasmussen · Missed · xG 0.10P. Kane · On goal · xG 0.08V. Tarasenko · On goal · xG 0.08J. Compher · On goal · xG 0.08B. Chiarot · On goal · xG 0.08P. Kane · On goal · xG 0.07M. Seider · Goal · xG 0.07P. Kane · Missed · xG 0.07L. Raymond · On goal · xG 0.06A. Copp · On goal · xG 0.06V. Tarasenko · Missed · xG 0.06D. Larkin · Missed · xG 0.05D. Larkin · On goal · xG 0.05P. Kane · Missed · xG 0.04D. Larkin · On goal · xG 0.04A. Copp · Missed · xG 0.04C. Fischer · Missed · xG 0.03E. Gustafsson · Missed · xG 0.02M. Seider · On goal · xG 0.02J. Holl · Missed · xG 0.01M. Seider · On goal · xG 0.01J. Holl · Missed · xG 0.01J. Petry · Missed · xG 0.01A. DeBrincat · On goal · xG 0.01P. Kane · On goal · xG 0.01B. Chiarot · On goal · xG 0.01T. Motte · Missed · xG 0.01S. Edvinsson · On goal · xG 0.01J. Holl · Missed · xG 0.01C. Fischer · On goal · xG 0.01J. Petry · On goal · xG 0.00
DET4 G · 4.3 xG · 42 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

TORvsDET
2.62 G
All situations
3 G4.3
2.21 G
Even strength
3 G2.7
0.31 G
Power play
0 G0.3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 86 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
TOR42%58%DET

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.56 – 3.00

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

TORvsDET
25
Shots on goal
26
49%
Faceoffs
51%
1/2
Power play
0/3
6
Penalty minutes
4
19
Hits
13
19
Blocked shots
14
9
Giveaways
12
5
Takeaways
7

Box score

every player line
Toronto Maple Leafs skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
88W. NylanderR011-240.3900010022:00
44M. RiellyD000-100.00010—21:17
34A. MatthewsC101-140.620105321:01
16M. MarnerR022-130.29002—20:01
22J. McCabeD011-110.02240—19:51
8C. TanevD000-110.09040—19:40
95O. Ekman-LarssonD000000.03010—19:34
23M. KniesL101010.07010—19:08
25C. TimminsD000-110.09002—18:14
2S. BenoitD000-100.00220—17:20
91J. TavaresC000-210.190205317:18
67M. PaciorettyL000-220.24202—15:50
74B. McMannC000-150.35300012:42
11M. DomiC000-100.05220012:33
24C. DewarC000010.111003311:04
39F. MintenC000-100.002102510:12
18S. LorentzC000010.02400009:05
29P. HolmbergR000000.00100—08:56
Toronto Maple Leafs goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
60J. Woll(L)25223.8803.03+0.0358:14

Season series

TOR leads 3-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).