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Red Wings at Maple Leafs
NHL

Detroit Red Wings at Toronto Maple Leafs

NHL scoreboard
Detroit Red Wings
1
Toronto Maple Leafs
▸3
FinalTV FDSNDET, TVAS-D·Scotiabank Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Toronto Maple Leafs beat the Detroit Red Wings 3-1. The Maple Leafs scored first and never trailed. The Maple Leafs led 2-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Dylan Larkin's goal at 9:10 of the second period, which took the Red Wings' chances from 31% to 47%. Expected goals favored the Maple Leafs, 2.4 to 2.1; shots on goal were DET 22, TOR 20. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Red Wings win a replay of these chances 57% of the time. Cam Talbot stopped 17 of 19 (.895); Anthony Stolarz stopped 21 of 22 (.955), 1.1 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. John Tavares (2 G), 2. Anthony Stolarz (21 saves, .955), 3. Mitch Marner (1 G, 1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    TOR
    J. Tavares2 G
  2. ★★
    TOR
    A. Stolarz21 saves, .955
  3. ★★★
    TOR
    M. Marner1 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
DETDET081608122
TORTOR1101614320

Scoring

4 goals

1st period

  1. TOR
    M. Marner(3)PPG
    W. Nylander (6), M. Rielly (6)
    wristxG 0.32win prob +10 ptsVideo
    0-1
    11:12

2nd period

  1. DET
    D. Larkin(9)PPG
    L. Raymond (12), A. DeBrincat (6)
    wristxG 0.07win prob +16 ptsVideo
    1-1
    9:10
  2. TOR
    J. Tavares(6)PPG
    M. Marner (15), M. Rielly (7)
    wristxG 0.09win prob +16 ptsVideo
    1-2
    11:01

3rd period

  1. TOR
    J. Tavares(7)EN
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.63win prob +5 ptsVideo
    1-3
    18:30

Penalties

DET 4 PIM·TOR 6 PIM

1st

  • 10:48DETMichael Rasmussen · Interferencedrawn by Nick Robertson2 min
  • 19:19TORBobby McMann · Interferencedrawn by Albert Johansson2 min

2nd

  • 7:55TORJohn Tavares · Hookingdrawn by Jonatan Berggren2 min
  • 10:11DETserved by Jonatan Berggren · Too many men on the ice2 min
  • 13:03TORSimon Benoit · Slashingdrawn by Marco Kasper2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
TOR goalDET goalFinal: TOR 100%

Biggest swing: Dylan Larkin, 2nd 9:10 — DET 31% → 47%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
J. Tavares · Goal · xG 0.63M. Marner · Goal · xG 0.32M. Marner · On goal · xG 0.21M. Marner · On goal · xG 0.14P. Holmberg · Missed · xG 0.12J. Tavares · On goal · xG 0.11M. Pacioretty · Missed · xG 0.11N. Robertson · On goal · xG 0.09J. Tavares · Goal · xG 0.09J. Tavares · On goal · xG 0.07N. Robertson · Missed · xG 0.07M. Pacioretty · Missed · xG 0.06M. Marner · Missed · xG 0.05P. Holmberg · Missed · xG 0.05B. McMann · Missed · xG 0.04B. McMann · On goal · xG 0.04M. Domi · On goal · xG 0.03P. Holmberg · Missed · xG 0.03C. Tanev · On goal · xG 0.03P. Holmberg · Missed · xG 0.03B. McMann · Missed · xG 0.03B. McMann · On goal · xG 0.03R. Reaves · On goal · xG 0.02O. Ekman-Larsson · Missed · xG 0.01M. Domi · On goal · xG 0.01D. Kampf · On goal · xG 0.01M. Rielly · Missed · xG 0.01W. Nylander · On goal · xG 0.01W. Nylander · On goal · xG 0.01M. Pacioretty · On goal · xG 0.01P. Holmberg · On goal · xG 0.00O. Ekman-Larsson · On goal · xG 0.00
TOR3 G · 2.4 xG · 32 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

DETvsTOR
2.11 G
All situations
2 G2.4
1.60 G
Even strength
0 G1.1
0.51 G
Power play
2 G0.7

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 66 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
DET57%43%TOR

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.05 – 1.75

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

DETvsTOR
22
Shots on goal
20
57%
Faceoffs
43%
1/3
Power play
2/2
4
Penalty minutes
6
14
Hits
23
18
Blocked shots
20
15
Giveaways
18
6
Takeaways
2

Box score

every player line
Detroit Red Wings skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
53M. SeiderD000-110.08320—23:27
88P. KaneR000-140.39000—21:36
71D. LarkinC101-140.180007120:36
56E. GustafssonD000-110.01210—20:27
93A. DeBrincatR011-140.31110—20:20
8B. ChiarotD000010.01150—19:45
3J. HollD000000.06020—19:21
23L. RaymondL011-100.08210—17:02
92M. KasperC000020.12100016:46
77S. EdvinssonD000010.03000—16:37
11V. TarasenkoR000010.03010—16:30
48J. BerggrenR000020.22000—15:57
20A. JohanssonD000000.00010—15:31
37J. CompherL000010.501005014:08
18A. CoppC000000.000205012:01
27M. RasmussenC000000.02022010:26
90J. VelenoC000000.000006709:48
36C. FischerR000000.00300—09:43
Detroit Red Wings goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
39C. Talbot(L)19172.8951.82-0.1858:45

Season series

TOR leads 3-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).