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Maple Leafs at Red Wings
NHL

Toronto Maple Leafs at Detroit Red Wings

NHL scoreboard
Toronto Maple Leafs
▸5
Detroit Red Wings
2
FinalTV FDSNDET, TVAS·Little Caesars Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Toronto Maple Leafs beat the Detroit Red Wings 5-2. The Maple Leafs scored first and never trailed. The Maple Leafs led 5-0 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Mitch Marner's goal at 8:16 of the first period, which took the Maple Leafs' chances from 59% to 74%. Expected goals were close — TOR 2.8, DET 2.7; shots on goal were TOR 23, DET 25. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Maple Leafs win a replay of these chances 53% of the time. Joseph Woll stopped 23 of 25 (.920), 0.7 goals saved above expected; Cam Talbot stopped 16 of 21 (.762), 2.5 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Mitch Marner (3 G), 2. John Tavares (2 A), 3. Nick Robertson (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    TOR
    M. Marner3 G
  2. ★★
    TOR
    J. Tavares2 A
  3. ★★★
    TOR
    N. Robertson1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
TORTOR31121002523
DETDET0130428225

Scoring

7 goals

1st period

  1. TOR
    D. Kampf(1)
    S. Lorentz (3)
    snapxG 0.24win prob +12 ptsVideo
    1-0
    2:29
  2. TOR
    M. Marner(11)
    J. Tavares (18), P. Myers (2)
    slapxG 0.23win prob +15 ptsVideo
    2-0
    8:16
  3. TOR
    M. Marner(12)PPG
    W. Nylander (18), J. Tavares (19)
    slapxG 0.13win prob +9 ptsVideo
    3-0
    19:28

2nd period

  1. TOR
    M. Marner(13)
    O. Ekman-Larsson (12), M. Pacioretty (6)
    tip-inxG 0.09win prob +3 ptsVideo
    4-0
    16:23
  2. TOR
    N. Robertson(6)
    M. Domi (9), B. McMann (5)
    snapxG 0.16win prob +1 ptsVideo
    5-0
    19:58

3rd period

  1. DET
    L. Raymond(14)PPG
    M. Seider (15), D. Larkin (15)
    slapxG 0.17Video
    5-1
    8:17
  2. DET
    S. Edvinsson(4)
    V. Tarasenko (9), J. Compher (13)
    wristxG 0.03Video
    5-2
    12:08

Penalties

TOR 6 PIM·DET 6 PIM

1st

  • 9:31TORSimon Benoit · Interferencedrawn by J.T. Compher2 min
  • 12:01DETJeff Petry · Interferencedrawn by John Tavares2 min
  • 16:41DETLucas Raymond · High sticking double minordrawn by Jake McCabe4 min

3rd

  • 1:39TORDavid Kampf · Trippingdrawn by J.T. Compher2 min
  • 6:40TORBobby McMann · Cross checkingdrawn by Marco Kasper2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
DET goalTOR goalFinal: DET 0%

Biggest swing: Mitch Marner, 1st 8:16 — TOR 59% → 74%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
A. DeBrincat · On goal · xG 0.36A. DeBrincat · Missed · xG 0.27L. Raymond · Goal · xG 0.17A. DeBrincat · Missed · xG 0.15A. DeBrincat · Missed · xG 0.15A. DeBrincat · On goal · xG 0.12D. Larkin · On goal · xG 0.11D. Larkin · On goal · xG 0.11D. Larkin · Missed · xG 0.10J. Petry · Missed · xG 0.08D. Larkin · On goal · xG 0.07D. Larkin · On goal · xG 0.07D. Larkin · On goal · xG 0.07A. DeBrincat · On goal · xG 0.07V. Tarasenko · On goal · xG 0.07V. Tarasenko · Missed · xG 0.07A. Copp · Missed · xG 0.06E. Gustafsson · Missed · xG 0.05J. Compher · On goal · xG 0.04M. Seider · On goal · xG 0.04M. Seider · Missed · xG 0.04J. Holl · Missed · xG 0.04M. Seider · On goal · xG 0.04D. Larkin · On goal · xG 0.03S. Edvinsson · Goal · xG 0.03D. Larkin · Missed · xG 0.03A. Copp · On goal · xG 0.02D. Larkin · Missed · xG 0.02P. Kane · On goal · xG 0.02C. Fischer · Missed · xG 0.02L. Raymond · Missed · xG 0.02M. Kasper · On goal · xG 0.02L. Raymond · Missed · xG 0.02E. Gustafsson · On goal · xG 0.01C. Fischer · Missed · xG 0.01J. Compher · On goal · xG 0.01J. Petry · Missed · xG 0.01J. Holl · Missed · xG 0.01M. Seider · Missed · xG 0.01P. Kane · On goal · xG 0.01M. Kasper · On goal · xG 0.01D. Larkin · On goal · xG 0.01V. Tarasenko · On goal · xG 0.00A. DeBrincat · On goal · xG 0.00
DET2 G · 2.7 xG · 44 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

TORvsDET
2.85 G
All situations
2 G2.7
1.84 G
Even strength
1 G0.9
1.11 G
Power play
1 G1.7
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 75 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
TOR53%47%DET

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.76 – 2.62

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

TORvsDET
23
Shots on goal
25
42%
Faceoffs
58%
1/3
Power play
1/3
6
Penalty minutes
6
37
Hits
34
17
Blocked shots
9
14
Giveaways
15
7
Takeaways
2

Box score

every player line
Toronto Maple Leafs skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
44M. RiellyD000+310.01010—21:43
22J. McCabeD000+120.03220—21:18
23M. KniesL000010.15110—20:05
88W. NylanderR011000.110303319:35
51P. MyersD011+100.03410—19:31
16M. MarnerR303+150.66100—19:25
95O. Ekman-LarssonD011010.03310—18:10
8C. TanevD000+200.00010—18:02
91J. TavaresC022+100.000007317:02
2S. BenoitD000-100.00442—16:54
29P. HolmbergR000000.031203816:35
67M. PaciorettyL011+110.01600—14:37
74B. McMannC011+120.62302013:34
24C. DewarC000+140.36710012:34
64D. KampfC101+120.270025012:31
11M. DomiC011+120.310002011:42
18S. LorentzC011+110.01300011:03
89N. RobertsonL101+110.20200—10:02
Toronto Maple Leafs goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
60J. Woll(W)25232.9202.65+0.6560:00

Season series

TOR leads 3-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).