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Jets at Avalanche
NHL

Winnipeg Jets at Colorado Avalanche

NHL scoreboard
Winnipeg Jets
2
Colorado Avalanche
▸5
FinalTV ALT, TSN3·Ball Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Colorado Avalanche beat the Winnipeg Jets 5-2. The Avalanche scored first and never trailed. It was tied 2-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Casey Mittelstadt's goal at 7:22 of the third period, which took the Avalanche's chances from 52% to 81%. Expected goals favored the Avalanche, 3.4 to 2.6; shots on goal were WPG 22, COL 38. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Jets win a replay of these chances 54% of the time. Eric Comrie stopped 33 of 36 (.917), 0.7 goals below expected; Mackenzie Blackwood stopped 20 of 22 (.909), 0.6 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Casey Mittelstadt (1 G), 2. Josh Manson (2 A), 3. Devon Toews (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    COL
    C. Mittelstadt1 G
  2. ★★
    COL
    J. Manson2 A
  3. ★★★
    COL
    D. Toews1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
WPGWPG0102705222
COLCOL114111313538

Scoring

7 goals

1st period

  1. COL
    A. Lehkonen(14)
    J. Manson (6), S. Girard (15)
    tip-inxG 0.07win prob +13 ptsVideo
    0-1
    11:51

2nd period

  1. WPG
    R. Kupari(3)
    M. Barron (3), N. Pionk (22)
    snapxG 0.13win prob +18 ptsVideo
    1-1
    10:20
  2. COL
    D. Toews(2)
    C. Makar (35), L. O'Connor (6)
    wristxG 0.17win prob +21 ptsVideo
    1-2
    16:37
  3. WPG
    G. Vilardi(18)
    L. Stanley (6), N. Niederreiter (10)
    wristxG 0.17win prob +22 ptsVideo
    2-2
    18:32

3rd period

  1. COL
    C. Mittelstadt(8)
    J. Manson (7), J. Drouin (3)
    tip-inxG 0.24win prob +29 ptsVideo
    2-3
    7:22
  2. COL
    M. Rantanen(21)EN
    N. MacKinnon (47), J. Kiviranta (3)
    wristxG 0.53win prob +5 ptsVideo
    2-4
    18:31
  3. COL
    R. Colton(11)EN
    J. Drouin (4)
    wristxG 0.48Video
    2-5
    19:53

Penalties

WPG 2 PIM·COL 0 PIM

1st

  • 17:03WPGColin Miller · Hookingdrawn by Mikko Rantanen2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
COL goalWPG goalFinal: COL 100%

Biggest swing: Casey Mittelstadt, 3rd 7:22 — COL 52% → 81%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
M. Rantanen · Goal · xG 0.53R. Colton · Goal · xG 0.48C. Mittelstadt · Goal · xG 0.24D. Toews · Goal · xG 0.17N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.15C. Makar · On goal · xG 0.13M. Rantanen · On goal · xG 0.12M. Rantanen · On goal · xG 0.11N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.11R. Colton · On goal · xG 0.11A. Lehkonen · On goal · xG 0.10R. Colton · On goal · xG 0.09A. Lehkonen · On goal · xG 0.07A. Lehkonen · Goal · xG 0.07P. Kelly · Missed · xG 0.07L. O'Connor · Missed · xG 0.07C. Makar · Missed · xG 0.06M. Rantanen · On goal · xG 0.05R. Colton · On goal · xG 0.05D. Toews · On goal · xG 0.04D. Toews · Missed · xG 0.04M. Rantanen · On goal · xG 0.03D. Toews · On goal · xG 0.03S. Girard · On goal · xG 0.03J. Manson · On goal · xG 0.03V. Nichushkin · On goal · xG 0.03J. Kiviranta · On goal · xG 0.03J. Kiviranta · Missed · xG 0.03N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.03S. Girard · On goal · xG 0.03K. Middleton · On goal · xG 0.02C. Makar · Missed · xG 0.02K. Middleton · On goal · xG 0.02S. Malinski · Missed · xG 0.02N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.02S. Girard · On goal · xG 0.01V. Nichushkin · On goal · xG 0.01N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.01K. Middleton · Missed · xG 0.01J. Manson · On goal · xG 0.01N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.01S. Girard · On goal · xG 0.01D. Toews · On goal · xG 0.01J. Manson · On goal · xG 0.01C. Makar · On goal · xG 0.01V. Nichushkin · On goal · xG 0.01K. Middleton · Missed · xG 0.00
COL5 G · 3.4 xG · 47 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

WPGvsCOL
2.62 G
All situations
3 G3.4
2.12 G
Even strength
3 G2.1
0.20 G
Power play
0 G0.2
0.30 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 83 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
WPG54%46%COL

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.53 – 2.34

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

WPGvsCOL
22
Shots on goal
38
49%
Faceoffs
51%
0/0
Power play
0/1
2
Penalty minutes
0
30
Hits
26
20
Blocked shots
15
21
Giveaways
20
2
Takeaways
2

Box score

every player line
Winnipeg Jets skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
2D. DeMeloD000-100.01230—23:43
44J. MorrisseyD000-250.41010—23:15
55M. ScheifeleC000-300.240202721:35
4N. PionkD011000.04600—21:33
81K. ConnorL000-430.59000—20:57
64L. StanleyD011+100.00320—20:08
13G. VilardiC101-330.38010019:42
9A. IafalloL000-110.092005017:00
17A. LowryC000-200.001105616:29
27N. EhlersL000-220.25410—16:09
52D. CoghlanD000-120.10110—15:52
6C. MillerD000-200.00102—15:49
62N. NiederreiterR011020.02220—15:09
7V. NamestnikovC000000.09020014:37
91C. PerfettiC000000.004208013:52
19D. GustafssonC000+110.121106708:41
36M. BarronC011+120.09110008:28
15R. KupariC101+110.13200006:52
Winnipeg Jets goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
1E. Comrie(L)36333.9172.34-0.6658:09

Season series

WPG leads 3-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).