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Avalanche at Stars
NHL

Colorado Avalanche at Dallas Stars

NHL scoreboard
Colorado Avalanche
▸5
Dallas Stars
3
FinalTV ESPN, SN·American Airlines Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Colorado Avalanche beat the Dallas Stars 5-3. The Stars scored first; the Avalanche answered. It was tied 2-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Casey Mittelstadt's goal at 1:12 of the third period, which took the Avalanche's chances from 47% to 72%. Expected goals were close — COL 3.2, DAL 3.5; shots on goal were COL 27, DAL 26. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Stars win a replay of these chances 65% of the time. Alexandar Georgiev stopped 23 of 26 (.885); Jake Oettinger stopped 22 of 27 (.815), 2.5 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Cale Makar (2 G), 2. Nathan MacKinnon (1 G, 1 A), 3. Joe Pavelski (1 G, 1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    COL
    C. Makar2 G
  2. ★★
    COL
    N. MacKinnon1 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    DAL
    J. Pavelski1 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
COLCOL1911038527
DALDAL1818110326

Scoring

8 goals

1st period

  1. DAL
    J. Pavelski(1)
    M. Duchene (4), J. Robertson (8)
    backhandxG 0.35win prob +13 ptsVideo
    0-1
    9:03
  2. COL
    A. Lehkonen(6)PPG
    N. MacKinnon (10)
    slapxG 0.12win prob +12 ptsVideo
    1-1
    19:59

2nd period

  1. DAL
    M. Heiskanen(5)PPG
    J. Robertson (9), J. Pavelski (2)
    snapxG 0.17win prob +14 ptsVideo
    1-2
    11:39
  2. COL
    C. Makar(4)PPG
    J. Drouin (2), M. Rantanen (10)
    wristxG 0.04win prob +18 ptsVideo
    2-2
    17:24

3rd period

  1. COL
    C. Mittelstadt(3)
    Z. Parise (1), S. Girard (3)
    snapxG 0.09win prob +25 ptsVideo
    3-2
    1:12
  2. COL
    C. Makar(5)
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.03win prob +17 ptsVideo
    4-2
    4:28
  3. DAL
    L. Stankoven(3)
    E. Lindell (1)
    tip-inxG 0.03win prob +16 ptsVideo
    4-3
    5:44
  4. COL
    N. MacKinnon(4)
    A. Lehkonen (5), J. Manson (5)
    wristxG 0.08win prob +9 ptsVideo
    5-3
    16:50

Penalties

COL 8 PIM·DAL 6 PIM

1st

  • 13:34COLJonathan Drouin · Trippingdrawn by Craig Smith2 min
  • 18:32DALRyan Suter · Holding the stickdrawn by Nathan MacKinnon2 min

2nd

  • 11:20COLDevon Toews · Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  • 16:16DALChris Tanev · High stickingdrawn by Mikko Rantanen2 min

3rd

  • 6:59COLArtturi Lehkonen · Cross checkingdrawn by Evgenii Dadonov2 min
  • 16:59COLMikko Rantanen · Trippingdrawn by Miro Heiskanen2 min
  • 18:49DALserved by M. Marchment · Too many men on the ice2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
DAL goalCOL goalFinal: DAL 0%

Biggest swing: Casey Mittelstadt, 3rd 1:12 — COL 47% → 72%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
J. Pavelski · Goal · xG 0.35T. Seguin · On goal · xG 0.22W. Johnston · Missed · xG 0.22R. Suter · On goal · xG 0.21M. Heiskanen · Goal · xG 0.17W. Johnston · Missed · xG 0.17T. Seguin · Missed · xG 0.17W. Johnston · Missed · xG 0.16J. Pavelski · On goal · xG 0.13W. Johnston · On goal · xG 0.13J. Benn · On goal · xG 0.12W. Johnston · On goal · xG 0.12J. Pavelski · On goal · xG 0.11J. Robertson · Missed · xG 0.10J. Pavelski · Missed · xG 0.10L. Stankoven · Missed · xG 0.07C. Tanev · Missed · xG 0.07J. Benn · Missed · xG 0.06E. Dadonov · On goal · xG 0.06J. Benn · On goal · xG 0.06J. Pavelski · Missed · xG 0.05R. Faksa · Missed · xG 0.05M. Duchene · On goal · xG 0.05J. Benn · On goal · xG 0.05E. Dadonov · Missed · xG 0.04M. Heiskanen · Missed · xG 0.04L. Stankoven · Goal · xG 0.03J. Benn · On goal · xG 0.03M. Duchene · Missed · xG 0.03T. Seguin · On goal · xG 0.03M. Heiskanen · Missed · xG 0.02W. Johnston · On goal · xG 0.02M. Marchment · On goal · xG 0.02M. Heiskanen · Missed · xG 0.02W. Johnston · Missed · xG 0.02T. Harley · Missed · xG 0.02T. Harley · On goal · xG 0.02L. Stankoven · On goal · xG 0.02R. Faksa · Missed · xG 0.02J. Benn · Missed · xG 0.01T. Harley · On goal · xG 0.01C. Tanev · On goal · xG 0.01R. Suter · On goal · xG 0.01C. Smith · On goal · xG 0.01R. Faksa · Missed · xG 0.01E. Dadonov · On goal · xG 0.00R. Faksa · On goal · xG 0.00
DAL3 G · 3.5 xG · 47 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

COLvsDAL
3.25 G
All situations
3 G3.5
2.23 G
Even strength
2 G2.2
0.32 G
Power play
1 G1.1
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 92 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
COL35%65%DAL

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.49 – 3.40

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

COLvsDAL
27
Shots on goal
26
45%
Faceoffs
55%
2/3
Power play
1/4
8
Penalty minutes
6
36
Hits
22
10
Blocked shots
15
6
Giveaways
7
8
Takeaways
10

Box score

every player line
Colorado Avalanche skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
8C. MakarD202050.39000—26:46
29N. MacKinnonC112+120.301003624:20
7D. ToewsD000030.08012—24:20
27J. DrouinL011+110.234025724:04
62A. LehkonenL112+120.4932210021:46
42J. MansonD011+150.06810—21:14
96M. RantanenR011030.081022020:20
49S. GirardD011+110.01010—19:50
37C. MittelstadtC101010.091004415:41
28M. WoodL000000.72300—15:39
26S. WalkerD000000.00310—14:24
20R. ColtonC000010.343106713:19
9Z. PariseL011010.27210—12:45
94J. KivirantaL000010.11210—11:57
3J. JohnsonD000000.00000—10:57
11A. CoglianoC000000.00000007:40
12B. DuhaimeL000010.05410—06:23
73Y. TreninC000000.001005002:16
Colorado Avalanche goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
40A. Georgiev(W)26233.8853.45+0.4560:00

Series

DAL leads 4-2

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).