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Avalanche at Stars
NHL

Colorado Avalanche at Dallas Stars

NHL scoreboard
Colorado Avalanche
3
Dallas Stars
▸5
FinalTV TNT, truTV·American Airlines Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Dallas Stars beat the Colorado Avalanche 5-3. The Stars scored first and never trailed. The Stars led 4-0 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Roope Hintz's goal at 1:57 of the second period, which took the Stars' chances from 69% to 84%. Expected goals favored the Stars, 3.6 to 2.4; shots on goal were COL 31, DAL 32. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Stars win a replay of these chances 56% of the time. Alexandar Georgiev stopped 27 of 31 (.871), 1.3 goals below expected; Jake Oettinger stopped 28 of 31 (.903), 0.6 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Miro Heiskanen (2 G), 2. Roope Hintz (1 G, 3 A), 3. Tyler Seguin (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    DAL
    M. Heiskanen2 G
  2. ★★
    DAL
    R. Hintz1 G, 3 A
  3. ★★★
    DAL
    T. Seguin1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
COLCOL0909313331
DALDAL1931518532

Scoring

8 goals

1st period

  1. DAL
    M. Heiskanen(2)PPG
    R. Hintz (1), J. Robertson (4)
    snapxG 0.14win prob +10 ptsVideo
    0-1
    14:46

2nd period

  1. DAL
    R. Hintz(2)
    N. Lundkvist (1), M. Marchment (1)
    snapxG 0.07win prob +15 ptsVideo
    0-2
    1:57
  2. DAL
    M. Heiskanen(3)PPG
    J. Benn (4), R. Hintz (2)
    wristxG 0.04win prob +5 ptsVideo
    0-3
    15:54
  3. DAL
    T. Seguin(1)SHG
    T. Harley (2)
    wristxG 0.12win prob +3 ptsVideo
    0-4
    18:06

3rd period

  1. COL
    J. Kiviranta(1)
    J. Manson (4), R. Colton (3)
    backhandxG 0.11win prob +1 ptsVideo
    1-4
    4:06
  2. COL
    B. Duhaime(1)
    A. Cogliano (5)
    wristxG 0.09win prob +4 ptsVideo
    2-4
    8:00
  3. COL
    V. Nichushkin(9)
    A. Lehkonen (4), C. Mittelstadt (6)
    deflectedxG 0.12win prob +8 ptsVideo
    3-4
    16:16
  4. DAL
    E. Lindell(1)EN
    R. Hintz (3), C. Tanev (1)
    wristxG 0.40win prob +5 ptsVideo
    3-5
    19:39

Penalties

COL 12 PIM·DAL 8 PIM

1st

  • 11:18COLserved by Z. Parise · Too many men on the ice2 min
  • 13:53COLNathan MacKinnon · Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  • 18:55DALMason Marchment · Trippingdrawn by Mikko Rantanen2 min

2nd

  • 7:14COLJosh Manson · Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  • 15:32COLSean Walker · Slashingdrawn by Evgenii Dadonov2 min
  • 16:44DALRoope Hintz · Holdingdrawn by Mikko Rantanen2 min

3rd

  • 1:39DALMason Marchment · Embellishment2 min
  • 1:39COLJoel Kiviranta · Interferencedrawn by Mason Marchment2 min
  • 5:09COLserved by R. Colton · Too many men on the ice2 min
  • 17:05DALWyatt Johnston · High stickingdrawn by Devon Toews2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
DAL goalCOL goalFinal: DAL 100%

Biggest swing: Roope Hintz, 2nd 1:57 — DAL 69% → 84%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
R. Hintz · Missed · xG 0.47E. Lindell · Goal · xG 0.40M. Marchment · On goal · xG 0.23E. Dadonov · On goal · xG 0.20R. Hintz · On goal · xG 0.16R. Hintz · On goal · xG 0.15M. Duchene · On goal · xG 0.14M. Heiskanen · Goal · xG 0.14T. Seguin · On goal · xG 0.13J. Pavelski · On goal · xG 0.12T. Harley · On goal · xG 0.12T. Seguin · Goal · xG 0.12J. Pavelski · On goal · xG 0.11L. Stankoven · On goal · xG 0.10T. Harley · On goal · xG 0.09L. Stankoven · On goal · xG 0.08T. Harley · On goal · xG 0.08J. Robertson · Missed · xG 0.08R. Hintz · Goal · xG 0.07L. Stankoven · On goal · xG 0.06C. Smith · On goal · xG 0.06T. Harley · On goal · xG 0.06E. Dadonov · On goal · xG 0.04J. Pavelski · On goal · xG 0.04M. Heiskanen · Goal · xG 0.04M. Duchene · On goal · xG 0.03M. Heiskanen · On goal · xG 0.03T. Seguin · On goal · xG 0.03J. Benn · Missed · xG 0.03J. Pavelski · Missed · xG 0.02C. Tanev · Missed · xG 0.02M. Heiskanen · On goal · xG 0.02L. Stankoven · Missed · xG 0.02T. Harley · Missed · xG 0.02E. Dadonov · On goal · xG 0.01E. Dadonov · Missed · xG 0.01M. Heiskanen · On goal · xG 0.01N. Lundkvist · On goal · xG 0.01R. Suter · Missed · xG 0.01M. Duchene · On goal · xG 0.01E. Lindell · Missed · xG 0.01C. Tanev · On goal · xG 0.00N. Lundkvist · Missed · xG 0.00
DAL5 G · 3.6 xG · 43 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

COLvsDAL
2.43 G
All situations
4 G3.6
1.73 G
Even strength
1 G1.5
0.60 G
Power play
2 G1.0
0.00 G
Shorthanded
1 G0.2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 85 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
COL44%56%DAL

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.35 – 2.70

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

COLvsDAL
31
Shots on goal
32
51%
Faceoffs
49%
0/3
Power play
2/5
12
Penalty minutes
8
24
Hits
16
26
Blocked shots
16
5
Giveaways
8
6
Takeaways
10

Box score

every player line
Colorado Avalanche skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
8C. MakarD000-130.22070—27:20
29N. MacKinnonC000-130.210223623:15
96M. RantanenR000-110.110206922:49
13V. NichushkinR101-130.50100—22:47
62A. LehkonenL011-150.48010—22:16
7D. ToewsD000020.07000—21:03
49S. GirardD000+120.04120—18:20
26S. WalkerD000-120.05222—17:57
37C. MittelstadtC011000.001005716:44
42J. MansonD011+100.00432—16:08
28M. WoodL000+120.10210—13:41
3J. JohnsonD000+110.01010—13:15
9Z. PariseL000020.17300—13:05
94J. KivirantaL101+130.16312—12:00
20R. ColtonC011+100.065205610:47
73Y. TreninC000010.032005809:51
11A. CoglianoC011000.000003306:50
12B. DuhaimeL101010.14020—04:51
Colorado Avalanche goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
40A. Georgiev(L)31274.8712.72-1.2857:52

Series

DAL leads 4-2

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).