Stars at Avalanche 2-1 — Recap, Win Probability & Shot Map

NHL scoreboard

Dallas Stars

▸2

Colorado Avalanche

Final/2OTTV TNT, truTV·Ball Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Dallas Stars beat the Colorado Avalanche 2-1 in double overtime, Matt Duchene scoring at 11:42. The Avalanche scored first; the Stars answered. The Avalanche led 1-0 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Matt Duchene's goal at 11:42 of the second overtime, which took the Stars' chances from 48% to 100%. Expected goals favored the Stars, 3.5 to 2.1; shots on goal were DAL 38, COL 30. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Stars win a replay of these chances 73% of the time. Jake Oettinger stopped 29 of 30 (.967), 1.1 goals saved above expected; Alexandar Georgiev stopped 36 of 38 (.947), 1.5 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Matt Duchene (1 G), 2. Jamie Benn (1 G), 3. Mikko Rantanen (1 G).

Three stars

★
M. Duchene1 G
★★
J. Benn1 G
★★★
M. Rantanen1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath

Goals and shots on goal by period
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	2OT	T
DAL	05	08	110	011	14	238
COL	09	13	09	04	05	130

Scoring

3 goals

2nd period

M. Rantanen(4)PPG
J. Drouin (3), C. Makar (10)
wristxG 0.10win prob +13 ptsVideo
0-1
5:48

3rd period

J. Benn(3)
E. Dadonov (3), T. Seguin (5)
backhandxG 0.19win prob +24 ptsVideo
1-1
1:56

2OT overtime

M. Duchene(2)
J. Pavelski (3)
wristxG 0.14win prob +52 ptsVideo
2-1
11:42

Penalties

2 PIM·

2 PIM

2nd

4:53Matt Duchene · Cross checkingdrawn by Samuel Girard2 min
11:01Josh Manson · Interferencedrawn by Logan Stankoven2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game

Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number

goal

goalFinal: COL

Biggest swing: Matt Duchene, 2OT 11:42 — DAL 48% → 100%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG

1 G · 2.1 xG · 48 att

←

attacks

attacks →

2 G · 3.5 xG · 65 att COL

1 G · 2.1 xG · 48 att

Tap a shot for who, when and how likely

GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

3.52 G
All situations: 1 G2.1; 3.22 G
Even strength: 0 G2.0; 0.30 G
Power play: 1 G0.1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 113 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created

73%27%

Flurry-adjusted xG 3.47 – 2.08

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

38
Shots on goal: 30; 53%
Faceoffs: 47%; 0/1
Power play: 1/1; 2
Penalty minutes: 2; 44
Hits: 59; 34
Blocked shots: 35; 10
Giveaways: 20; 14
Takeaways: 14

Box score

every player line

Dallas Stars skaters
Skater	G	A	P	+/-	SOG	ixG	Hit	Blk	PIM	FO%	TOI
4M. HeiskanenD	0	0	0	+1	4	0.08	0	3	0	—	38:26
55T. HarleyD	0	0	0	+1	1	0.01	3	7	0	—	34:38
23E. LindellD	0	0	0	+1	1	0.09	2	1	0	—	33:45
3C. TanevD	0	0	0	+1	1	0.02	4	9	0	—	32:58
21J. RobertsonL	0	0	0	0	3	0.66	0	1	0	—	27:48
95M. DucheneC	1	0	1	+1	4	0.55	2	1	2	75	27:37
53W. JohnstonC	0	0	0	0	3	0.33	1	1	0	58	27:05
27M. MarchmentL	0	0	0	+1	3	0.23	8	2	0	—	26:33
16J. PavelskiC	0	1	1	+1	2	0.31	5	1	0	53	26:04
11L. StankovenC	0	0	0	0	1	0.16	0	3	0	0	25:42
20R. SuterD	0	0	0	0	1	0.07	3	0	0	—	25:23
91T. SeguinC	0	1	1	+1	2	0.29	1	0	0	60	22:55
63E. DadonovL	0	1	1	+1	2	0.22	0	4	0	—	22:22
14J. BennL	1	0	1	+1	5	0.43	3	0	0	22	21:35
18S. SteelC	0	0	0	0	1	0.02	0	0	0	0	17:28
28A. PetrovicD	0	0	0	0	3	0.04	3	0	0	—	16:25
15C. SmithC	0	0	0	0	1	0.02	5	1	0	0	15:53
12R. FaksaC	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	4	0	0	43	14:58

Dallas Stars goalies
Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	xGA	GSAx	TOI
29J. Oettinger(W)	30	29	1	.967	2.11	+1.11	91:42

Series

DAL leads 4-2

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).

Dallas Stars at Colorado Avalanche

2nd period

3rd period

2OT overtime

2nd

Box score