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Chicago Blackhawks at St. Louis Blues

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Recap

written from the game data

The St. Louis Blues beat the Chicago Blackhawks 7-5. The Blues came back from three goals down. The Blackhawks led 4-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Justin Faulk's goal at 17:53 of the third period, which took the Blues' chances from 52% to 95%. Expected goals favored the Blues, 4.0 to 2.0; shots on goal were CHI 20, STL 42. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Blues win a replay of these chances 69% of the time. Arvid Soderblom stopped 35 of 41 (.854), 2.9 goals below expected; Jordan Binnington stopped 15 of 20 (.750), 3.0 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Justin Faulk (1 G, 1 A), 2. Robert Thomas (1 G, 1 A), 3. Jordan Kyrou (2 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    STL
    J. Faulk1 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    STL
    R. Thomas1 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    STL
    J. Kyrou2 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
CHICHI2821012520
STLSTL11119522742

Scoring

12 goals

1st period

  1. STL
    wristxG 0.07win prob +12 ptsVideo
    0-1
    3:04
  2. CHI
    cradlexG 0.06win prob +12 ptsVideo
    1-1
    3:49
  3. CHI
    tip-inxG 0.07win prob +12 ptsVideo
    2-1
    4:12

2nd period

  1. CHI
    wristxG 0.35win prob +15 ptsVideo
    3-1
    0:20
  2. STL
    slapxG 0.01win prob +17 ptsVideo
    3-2
    13:29
  3. CHI
    tip-inxG 0.07win prob +18 ptsVideo
    4-2
    15:54

3rd period

  1. CHI
    backhandxG 0.24win prob +8 ptsVideo
    5-2
    5:16
  2. STL
    B. Saad(9)PPG
    tip-inxG 0.06win prob +4 ptsVideo
    5-3
    7:53
  3. STL
    J. Faulk (15), K. Hayes (10)
    deflectedxG 0.15win prob +11 ptsVideo
    5-4
    10:43
  4. STL
    wristxG 0.12win prob +34 ptsVideo
    5-5
    11:06
  5. STL
    T. Krug (15)
    wristxG 0.01win prob +43 ptsVideo
    5-6
    17:53
  6. STL
    Unassisted
    backhandxG 0.94win prob +5 ptsVideo
    5-7
    18:59

Penalties

CHI 8 PIM·STL 4 PIM

1st

  • 15:28CHIJarred Tinordi · Interferencedrawn by Sammy Blais2 min
  • 18:49STLRobert Thomas · Hookingdrawn by Philipp Kurashev2 min

2nd

  • 7:17STLJustin Faulk · Holdingdrawn by MacKenzie Entwistle2 min

3rd

  • 4:36CHILouis Crevier · Holdingdrawn by Alexey Toropchenko2 min
  • 6:04CHIConnor Murphy · Cross checkingdrawn by Jake Neighbours2 min
  • 10:13CHIJarred Tinordi · Trippingdrawn by Kasperi Kapanen2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
STL goalCHI goalFinal: STL 100%

Biggest swing: Justin Faulk, 3rd 17:53 — STL 52% → 95%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
J. Kyrou · Goal · xG 0.94P. Buchnevich · On goal · xG 0.17J. Neighbours · On goal · xG 0.17R. Thomas · Missed · xG 0.16J. Neighbours · Goal · xG 0.15J. Kyrou · Missed · xG 0.15J. Kyrou · Missed · xG 0.15P. Buchnevich · On goal · xG 0.13J. Kyrou · Goal · xG 0.12P. Buchnevich · On goal · xG 0.11R. Thomas · On goal · xG 0.11J. Neighbours · On goal · xG 0.11B. Saad · On goal · xG 0.10J. Kyrou · Missed · xG 0.09J. Kyrou · On goal · xG 0.09J. Neighbours · On goal · xG 0.08J. Kyrou · Missed · xG 0.08A. Toropchenko · On goal · xG 0.07A. Toropchenko · On goal · xG 0.07R. Thomas · Goal · xG 0.07K. Kapanen · On goal · xG 0.07B. Saad · On goal · xG 0.06J. Kyrou · Missed · xG 0.06B. Saad · Goal · xG 0.06B. Schenn · On goal · xG 0.06J. Neighbours · Missed · xG 0.06J. Kyrou · On goal · xG 0.06K. Hayes · On goal · xG 0.05K. Hayes · On goal · xG 0.05P. Buchnevich · Missed · xG 0.05K. Kapanen · Missed · xG 0.04T. Krug · On goal · xG 0.03K. Hayes · On goal · xG 0.03S. Blais · On goal · xG 0.02J. Kyrou · On goal · xG 0.02C. Parayko · On goal · xG 0.02B. Schenn · On goal · xG 0.02K. Hayes · On goal · xG 0.02P. Buchnevich · On goal · xG 0.01N. Leddy · On goal · xG 0.01J. Kyrou · Missed · xG 0.01N. Leddy · Missed · xG 0.01C. Parayko · Goal · xG 0.01M. Scandella · On goal · xG 0.01J. Faulk · Goal · xG 0.01M. Scandella · Missed · xG 0.01J. Kyrou · On goal · xG 0.01K. Hayes · On goal · xG 0.01C. Parayko · On goal · xG 0.00K. Kapanen · On goal · xG 0.00C. Parayko · On goal · xG 0.00J. Kyrou · On goal · xG 0.00P. Buchnevich · On goal · xG 0.00K. Kapanen · On goal · xG 0.00
STL7 G · 4.0 xG · 54 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

CHIvsSTL
2.05 G
All situations
6 G4.0
1.23 G
Even strength
4 G2.2
0.51 G
Power play
2 G0.9
0.31 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 88 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
CHI31%69%STL

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.98 – 3.07

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

CHIvsSTL
20
Shots on goal
42
40%
Faceoffs
60%
1/2
Power play
2/4
8
Penalty minutes
4
36
Hits
21
13
Blocked shots
12
7
Giveaways
9
12
Takeaways
11

Box score

every player line
Chicago Blackhawks skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
41I. PhillipsD011000.01100—21:35
55K. KorchinskiD000-220.05000—21:19
5C. MurphyD000-100.01432—19:55
11T. RaddyshR033+110.01100—19:17
17N. FolignoL202-120.764304419:13
98C. BedardC101-220.191205018:50
22N. ZaitsevD000010.08100—18:36
16J. DickinsonC101+320.152102517:54
23P. KurashevC022-120.11000017:43
25J. TinordiD033+110.031024—17:29
46L. CrevierD000+100.00102—16:59
91A. BeauvillierR101010.21000—16:21
8R. DonatoC000-210.021006716:07
43C. BlackwellC000-100.002105013:44
58M. EntwistleR000020.161001712:20
52R. JohnsonC000-220.094103310:57
70C. GuttmanC000-110.0310010008:02
27L. ReichelL000000.1120010007:58
Chicago Blackhawks goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
40A. Soderblom(L)41356.8543.09-2.9159:22

Season series

STL leads 3-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).