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Senators at Sabres
NHL

Ottawa Senators at Buffalo Sabres

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Ottawa Senators
3
Buffalo Sabres
▸4
Final/OTTV MSG-B, TSN5·KeyBank Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Buffalo Sabres beat the Ottawa Senators 4-3 in overtime, Casey Mittelstadt scoring at 1:18. The lead changed hands 2 times. The Senators led 3-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Casey Mittelstadt's goal at 1:18 of overtime, which took the Sabres' chances from 51% to 100%. Expected goals favored the Sabres, 3.9 to 2.3; shots on goal were OTT 33, BUF 36. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Sabres win a replay of these chances 75% of the time. Mads Sogaard stopped 32 of 36 (.889); Craig Anderson stopped 30 of 33 (.909), 0.7 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Craig Anderson (30 saves, .909), 2. Casey Mittelstadt (1 G, 1 A), 3. Tage Thompson (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    BUF
    C. Anderson30 saves, .909
  2. ★★
    BUF
    C. Mittelstadt1 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    BUF
    T. Thompson1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdOTT
OTTOTT01131201000333
BUFBUF01221311011436

Scoring

7 goals

2nd period

  1. BUF
    H. Jokiharju(3)
    C. Mittelstadt (43), J. Skinner (43)
    snapxG 0.03win prob +15 pts
    0-1
    0:43
  2. BUF
    V. Olofsson(27)
    K. Okposo (17), Z. Girgensons (8)
    wristxG 0.30win prob +15 pts
    0-2
    2:46
  3. OTT
    T. Stützle(39)PPG
    J. Sanderson (28), D. Batherson (40)
    slapxG 0.07win prob +12 pts
    1-2
    4:27
  4. OTT
    D. Gambrell(4)
    E. Sokolov (1)
    slapxG 0.15win prob +17 pts
    2-2
    6:11
  5. OTT
    C. Giroux(35)
    B. Tkachuk (48), T. Stützle (51)
    deflectedxG 0.12win prob +21 pts
    3-2
    12:36

3rd period

  1. BUF
    T. Thompson(47)PPG
    J. Skinner (44), A. Tuch (43)
    snapxG 0.15win prob +24 pts
    3-3
    3:03

Overtime

  1. BUF
    C. Mittelstadt(14)
    R. Dahlin (58), J. Skinner (45)
    wristxG 0.14win prob +49 pts
    3-4
    1:18

Penalties

OTT 8 PIM·BUF 6 PIM

1st

  • 9:04BUFKyle Okposo · Chargingdrawn by Tim Stützle2 min
  • 15:35OTTTyler Kleven · Slashingdrawn by Casey Mittelstadt2 min

2nd

  • 3:59BUFTage Thompson · Hookingdrawn by Erik Brannstrom2 min
  • 10:16OTTErik Brannstrom · Hookingdrawn by Jordan Greenway2 min
  • 14:46OTTDylan Gambrell · Slashingdrawn by Tage Thompson2 min

3rd

  • 1:33OTTArtem Zub · Interferencedrawn by Tage Thompson2 min
  • 14:36BUFJJ Peterka · Trippingdrawn by Julien Gauthier2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
BUF goalOTT goalFinal: BUF 100%

Biggest swing: Casey Mittelstadt, OT 1:18 — BUF 51% → 100%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
V. Olofsson · Goal · xG 0.30T. Thompson · On goal · xG 0.23T. Thompson · On goal · xG 0.21A. Tuch · On goal · xG 0.21J. Skinner · Missed · xG 0.19R. Dahlin · Missed · xG 0.18A. Tuch · On goal · xG 0.16T. Thompson · Goal · xG 0.15C. Mittelstadt · Goal · xG 0.14J. Skinner · Missed · xG 0.13J. Peterka · On goal · xG 0.13J. Skinner · On goal · xG 0.13A. Tuch · On goal · xG 0.12J. Peterka · Missed · xG 0.10Z. Girgensons · Missed · xG 0.10A. Tuch · Missed · xG 0.10T. Thompson · On goal · xG 0.09C. Mittelstadt · On goal · xG 0.08J. Skinner · Missed · xG 0.08J. Quinn · On goal · xG 0.08K. Okposo · Missed · xG 0.08J. Peterka · On goal · xG 0.07J. Skinner · On goal · xG 0.07T. Thompson · On goal · xG 0.07A. Tuch · Missed · xG 0.06P. Krebs · On goal · xG 0.05J. Quinn · On goal · xG 0.05C. Mittelstadt · On goal · xG 0.05J. Greenway · On goal · xG 0.05J. Greenway · On goal · xG 0.04H. Jokiharju · Goal · xG 0.03H. Jokiharju · On goal · xG 0.03O. Power · On goal · xG 0.03D. Cozens · On goal · xG 0.03J. Greenway · On goal · xG 0.03J. Skinner · On goal · xG 0.03K. Okposo · On goal · xG 0.03A. Tuch · On goal · xG 0.03T. Thompson · On goal · xG 0.03I. Lyubushkin · Missed · xG 0.02T. Thompson · Missed · xG 0.01T. Thompson · On goal · xG 0.01R. Dahlin · Missed · xG 0.01R. Dahlin · Missed · xG 0.01T. Thompson · On goal · xG 0.01T. Thompson · Missed · xG 0.01A. Tuch · On goal · xG 0.01J. Quinn · On goal · xG 0.01J. Bryson · Missed · xG 0.01J. Skinner · On goal · xG 0.01R. Stillman · Missed · xG 0.01Z. Girgensons · Missed · xG 0.00H. Jokiharju · On goal · xG 0.00
BUF4 G · 3.9 xG · 53 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

OTTvsBUF
2.33 G
All situations
4 G3.9
1.82 G
Even strength
3 G3.1
0.51 G
Power play
1 G0.8

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 98 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
OTT25%75%BUF

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.27 – 3.90

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

OTTvsBUF
33
Shots on goal
36
63%
Faceoffs
38%
1/3
Power play
1/4
8
Penalty minutes
6
33
Hits
10
15
Blocked shots
11
8
Giveaways
8
6
Takeaways
9

Box score

every player line
Ottawa Senators skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
85J. SandersonD011070.19030—29:52
2A. ZubD000010.01322—23:43
5N. HoldenD000+140.08010—23:13
18T. StützleC112-110.091007522:53
26E. BrannstromD000000.02122—20:50
28C. GirouxR101020.210106220:07
7B. TkachukL011-160.444007019:16
12A. DeBrincatR000020.18010—18:11
38P. BrownC000010.21300016:09
57S. PintoC000010.091006916:09
19D. BathersonR011000.19000—15:46
21M. JosephR000000.00220—15:18
43T. KlevenD000-110.02202—12:11
47M. KastelicC000040.247004611:05
27D. GambrellC101010.1521210009:23
50M. GuenetteD000-120.16110—08:47
77J. GauthierR000000.00310—06:47
75E. SokolovL011000.00300—06:44
Ottawa Senators goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
40M. Sogaard(O)36324.8893.92-0.0861:18

Season series

Tied 2-2

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).