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Senators at Sabres
NHL

Ottawa Senators at Buffalo Sabres

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Ottawa Senators
1
Buffalo Sabres
▸4
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Recap

written from the game data

The Buffalo Sabres beat the Ottawa Senators 4-1. The Senators scored first; the Sabres answered. The Sabres led 2-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Rasmus Dahlin's goal at 7:25 of the second period, which took the Sabres' chances from 53% to 70%. Expected goals favored the Sabres, 3.7 to 2.5; shots on goal were OTT 36, BUF 36. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Sabres win a replay of these chances 50% of the time. Anton Forsberg stopped 32 of 34 (.941), 0.6 goals saved above expected; Craig Anderson stopped 35 of 36 (.972), 1.5 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Craig Anderson (35 saves, .972), 2. JJ Peterka (1 G), 3. Victor Olofsson (2 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    BUF
    C. Anderson35 saves, .972
  2. ★★
    BUF
    J. Peterka1 G
  3. ★★★
    BUF
    V. Olofsson2 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
OTTOTT11609011136
BUFBUF09215212436

Scoring

5 goals

1st period

  1. OTT
    B. Tkachuk(1)
    D. Batherson (1), E. Brannstrom (1)
    snapxG 0.10win prob +13 pts
    1-0
    10:16

2nd period

  1. BUF
    J. Peterka(1)
    D. Cozens (1)
    wristxG 0.18win prob +17 pts
    1-1
    4:31
  2. BUF
    R. Dahlin(1)
    P. Krebs (1), K. Okposo (1)
    wristxG 0.14win prob +17 pts
    1-2
    7:25

3rd period

  1. BUF
    V. Olofsson(1)EN
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.58win prob +2 pts
    1-3
    19:18
  2. BUF
    V. Olofsson(2)EN
    I. Lyubushkin (1)
    wristxG 0.52
    1-4
    19:33

Penalties

OTT 8 PIM·BUF 8 PIM

1st

  • 3:41BUFHenri Jokiharju · Hookingdrawn by Tyler Motte2 min
  • 20:00OTTThomas Chabot · Hookingdrawn by Rasmus Asplund2 min

2nd

  • 7:46OTTAlex DeBrincat · Trippingdrawn by Jeff Skinner2 min
  • 11:34BUFIlya Lyubushkin · Interferencedrawn by Josh Norris2 min
  • 12:46BUFMattias Samuelsson · Slashingdrawn by Josh Norris2 min
  • 17:28OTTThomas Chabot · Trippingdrawn by Kyle Okposo2 min
  • 19:23BUFCasey Mittelstadt · Trippingdrawn by Josh Norris2 min

3rd

  • 9:36OTTMathieu Joseph · High stickingdrawn by Jacob Bryson2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
BUF goalOTT goalFinal: BUF 100%

Biggest swing: Rasmus Dahlin, 2nd 7:25 — BUF 53% → 70%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
V. Olofsson · Goal · xG 0.58V. Olofsson · Goal · xG 0.52R. Dahlin · On goal · xG 0.29J. Peterka · Goal · xG 0.18K. Okposo · Missed · xG 0.18D. Cozens · On goal · xG 0.15R. Dahlin · Goal · xG 0.14J. Peterka · On goal · xG 0.14Z. Girgensons · On goal · xG 0.11V. Olofsson · On goal · xG 0.11J. Peterka · On goal · xG 0.10J. Skinner · On goal · xG 0.10T. Thompson · On goal · xG 0.10Z. Girgensons · Missed · xG 0.09C. Mittelstadt · On goal · xG 0.08Z. Girgensons · Missed · xG 0.08C. Mittelstadt · On goal · xG 0.08A. Tuch · On goal · xG 0.07R. Asplund · Missed · xG 0.06C. Mittelstadt · On goal · xG 0.05D. Cozens · On goal · xG 0.05V. Olofsson · On goal · xG 0.04V. Olofsson · Missed · xG 0.03A. Tuch · On goal · xG 0.03R. Dahlin · Missed · xG 0.03Z. Girgensons · Missed · xG 0.03R. Dahlin · On goal · xG 0.02R. Dahlin · On goal · xG 0.02A. Tuch · On goal · xG 0.02J. Peterka · On goal · xG 0.02R. Asplund · On goal · xG 0.02A. Tuch · Missed · xG 0.02Z. Girgensons · On goal · xG 0.02T. Thompson · On goal · xG 0.01R. Dahlin · On goal · xG 0.01R. Asplund · On goal · xG 0.01K. Okposo · On goal · xG 0.01O. Power · Missed · xG 0.01Z. Girgensons · On goal · xG 0.01V. Olofsson · On goal · xG 0.01C. Mittelstadt · On goal · xG 0.01V. Olofsson · On goal · xG 0.01M. Samuelsson · On goal · xG 0.01H. Jokiharju · On goal · xG 0.00D. Cozens · On goal · xG 0.00
BUF4 G · 3.7 xG · 45 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

OTTvsBUF
2.51 G
All situations
2 G3.7
1.81 G
Even strength
2 G1.8
0.50 G
Power play
0 G0.3
0.30 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 86 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
OTT50%50%BUF

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.53 – 2.54

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

OTTvsBUF
36
Shots on goal
36
55%
Faceoffs
45%
0/4
Power play
0/4
8
Penalty minutes
8
18
Hits
9
10
Blocked shots
11
3
Giveaways
9
6
Takeaways
4

Box score

every player line
Ottawa Senators skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
72T. ChabotD000-220.19014—24:16
85J. SandersonD000-110.02200—22:21
9J. NorrisC000-300.121004520:42
18T. StützleC000+120.261106019:17
23T. HamonicD000-120.05220—19:12
12A. DeBrincatR000-270.67002—19:06
19D. BathersonR011020.04000—18:31
28C. GirouxR000-220.080106417:54
7B. TkachukL101050.512007517:13
26E. BrannstromD011-120.01010—16:58
2A. ZubD000-100.00210—16:02
14T. MotteC000-130.352205013:52
5N. HoldenD000010.02010—13:50
57S. PintoC000-320.091001713:12
21M. JosephR000-110.05302—12:27
16A. WatsonL000020.02100—09:42
47M. KastelicC000010.030006709:35
45P. KellyC000010.01100008:49
Ottawa Senators goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
31A. Forsberg(L)34322.9412.56+0.5659:01

Season series

Tied 2-2

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).