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Sabres at Senators
NHL

Buffalo Sabres at Ottawa Senators

NHL scoreboard
Buffalo Sabres
1
Ottawa Senators
▸4
FinalTV MSG-B, SN·Canadian Tire Centre

Recap

written from the game data

The Ottawa Senators beat the Buffalo Sabres 4-1. The Senators scored first and never trailed. The Senators led 2-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Brady Tkachuk's goal at 9:57 of the second period, which took the Senators' chances from 53% to 71%. Expected goals favored the Senators, 5.3 to 3.0; shots on goal were BUF 30, OTT 40. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Senators win a replay of these chances 57% of the time. Eric Comrie stopped 22 of 24 (.917); Anton Forsberg stopped 29 of 30 (.967), 2.0 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Jake Sanderson (2 A), 2. Anton Forsberg (29 saves, .967), 3. Brady Tkachuk (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    OTT
    J. Sanderson2 A
  2. ★★
    OTT
    A. Forsberg29 saves, .967
  3. ★★★
    OTT
    B. Tkachuk1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
BUFBUF01111009130
OTTOTT114114212440

Scoring

5 goals

1st period

  1. OTT
    A. Watson(1)
    J. Sanderson (8), P. Kelly (1)
    snapxG 0.08win prob +13 pts
    0-1
    9:45

2nd period

  1. BUF
    T. Thompson(12)PPG
    R. Dahlin (12), A. Tuch (7)
    slapxG 0.17win prob +14 pts
    1-1
    6:41
  2. OTT
    B. Tkachuk(7)PPG
    J. Sanderson (9), T. Stützle (11)
    backhandxG 0.14win prob +18 pts
    1-2
    9:57

3rd period

  1. OTT
    A. DeBrincat(5)
    M. Joseph (3), T. Hamonic (2)
    wristxG 0.21win prob +10 pts
    1-3
    14:21
  2. OTT
    T. Stützle(6)EN
    N. Holden (2)
    wristxG 0.95
    1-4
    19:19

Penalties

BUF 14 PIM·OTT 18 PIM

1st

  • 2:23OTTJacob Larsson · High sticking double minordrawn by Zemgus Girgensons4 min
  • 3:15BUFVictor Olofsson · Holdingdrawn by Mathieu Joseph2 min
  • 7:05BUFZemgus Girgensons · High stickingdrawn by Claude Giroux2 min
  • 12:55OTTDerick Brassard · Hookingdrawn by Owen Power2 min
  • 18:10OTTMathieu Joseph · High stickingdrawn by Lawrence Pilut2 min
  • 19:38OTTTim Stützle · Interferencedrawn by Peyton Krebs2 min

2nd

  • 5:27OTTErik Brannstrom · High stickingdrawn by Dylan Cozens2 min
  • 7:54OTTTyler Motte · High stickingdrawn by Henri Jokiharju2 min
  • 8:27OTTTravis Hamonic · Roughingdrawn by Jeff Skinner2 min
  • 8:27BUFJeff Skinner · Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
  • 8:27BUFJeff Skinner · Roughingdrawn by Travis Hamonic2 min
  • 13:17BUFJJ Peterka · Trippingdrawn by Tyler Motte2 min
  • 18:47BUFVinnie Hinostroza · Trippingdrawn by Erik Brannstrom2 min

3rd

  • 3:53BUFAlex Tuch · Trippingdrawn by Drake Batherson2 min
  • 16:30OTTClaude Giroux · Hookingdrawn by Owen Power2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
OTT goalBUF goalFinal: OTT 100%

Biggest swing: Brady Tkachuk, 2nd 9:57 — OTT 53% → 71%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
T. Stützle · Goal · xG 0.95M. Joseph · Missed · xG 0.44E. Brannstrom · Missed · xG 0.32B. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.31A. DeBrincat · On goal · xG 0.23A. DeBrincat · Goal · xG 0.21S. Pinto · On goal · xG 0.20A. DeBrincat · Missed · xG 0.18M. Joseph · On goal · xG 0.18B. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.17J. Bernard-Docker · On goal · xG 0.17D. Brassard · On goal · xG 0.17B. Tkachuk · Goal · xG 0.14M. Joseph · On goal · xG 0.13D. Brassard · On goal · xG 0.12B. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.12B. Tkachuk · Missed · xG 0.12S. Pinto · On goal · xG 0.10C. Giroux · Missed · xG 0.09A. Watson · Missed · xG 0.08C. Giroux · Missed · xG 0.08A. Watson · Goal · xG 0.08D. Brassard · On goal · xG 0.07A. DeBrincat · On goal · xG 0.06J. Sanderson · On goal · xG 0.05A. DeBrincat · Missed · xG 0.05B. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.05S. Pinto · On goal · xG 0.04N. Holden · On goal · xG 0.04J. Sanderson · Missed · xG 0.03T. Hamonic · Missed · xG 0.03J. Sanderson · On goal · xG 0.03C. Giroux · On goal · xG 0.02C. Giroux · Missed · xG 0.02J. Bernard-Docker · On goal · xG 0.02T. Hamonic · On goal · xG 0.02J. Bernard-Docker · On goal · xG 0.02N. Holden · On goal · xG 0.02P. Kelly · On goal · xG 0.01P. Kelly · On goal · xG 0.01J. Sanderson · On goal · xG 0.01J. Sanderson · On goal · xG 0.01J. Larsson · On goal · xG 0.01D. Batherson · On goal · xG 0.01D. Brassard · On goal · xG 0.01B. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.01E. Brannstrom · On goal · xG 0.00C. Giroux · On goal · xG 0.00D. Gambrell · On goal · xG 0.00T. Motte · On goal · xG 0.00A. Watson · On goal · xG 0.00
OTT4 G · 5.3 xG · 51 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

BUFvsOTT
3.01 G
All situations
3 G5.3
2.00 G
Even strength
2 G2.5
0.81 G
Power play
1 G0.8
0.20 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 90 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
BUF43%57%OTT

Flurry-adjusted xG 3.03 – 3.44

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

BUFvsOTT
30
Shots on goal
40
43%
Faceoffs
57%
1/8
Power play
1/5
14
Penalty minutes
18
10
Hits
27
9
Blocked shots
19
13
Giveaways
16
7
Takeaways
5

Box score

every player line
Buffalo Sabres skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
26R. DahlinD011-220.06220—28:22
25O. PowerD000-210.07010—25:03
72T. ThompsonC101-260.551002822:25
89A. TuchR011-210.05012—21:38
10H. JokiharjuD000020.02010—19:55
71V. OlofssonL000-220.21002—18:21
53J. SkinnerL000-130.46014—16:59
37C. MittelstadtC000-120.460005416:55
24D. CozensC000040.460006916:12
77J. PeterkaR000020.40102—15:41
78J. BrysonD000-100.00110—14:43
46I. LyubushkinD000020.01110—13:25
29V. HinostrozaC000010.14002012:20
19P. KrebsC000-100.00000012:11
74R. AsplundC000-100.000003811:22
15A. BjorkL000010.13000—09:38
20L. PilutD000-110.02100—09:03
28Z. GirgensonsC000000.003125006:08
Buffalo Sabres goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
31E. Comrie(L)24222.9172.12+0.1232:36
41C. Anderson15141.9331.43+0.4325:33

Season series

Tied 2-2

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).