Skip to content
Sabres at Senators
NHL

Buffalo Sabres at Ottawa Senators

NHL scoreboard
Buffalo Sabres
1
Ottawa Senators
▸3
FinalTV MSG-B, TSN5·Canadian Tire Centre

Recap

written from the game data

The Ottawa Senators beat the Buffalo Sabres 3-1. The Senators scored first and never trailed. The Senators led 2-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Jake Lucchini's goal at 11:45 of the second period, which took the Senators' chances from 55% to 72%. Expected goals favored the Senators, 3.8 to 3.2; shots on goal were BUF 34, OTT 33. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Sabres win a replay of these chances 57% of the time. Craig Anderson stopped 30 of 32 (.938), 0.8 goals saved above expected; Anton Forsberg stopped 33 of 34 (.971), 2.2 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Anton Forsberg (33 saves, .971), 2. Tim Stützle (2 G), 3. Jake Lucchini (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    OTT
    A. Forsberg33 saves, .971
  2. ★★
    OTT
    T. Stützle2 G
  3. ★★★
    OTT
    J. Lucchini1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
BUFBUF011113010134
OTTOTT18112113333

Scoring

4 goals

1st period

  1. OTT
    T. Stützle(13)
    C. Giroux (18)
    wristxG 0.20win prob +11 pts
    0-1
    0:47

2nd period

  1. BUF
    Z. Girgensons(4)
    M. Samuelsson (2), I. Lyubushkin (3)
    wristxG 0.14win prob +17 pts
    1-1
    6:51
  2. OTT
    J. Lucchini(1)PPG
    D. Brassard (5), C. Giroux (19)
    wristxG 0.17win prob +17 pts
    1-2
    11:45

3rd period

  1. OTT
    T. Stützle(14)EN
    T. Chabot (13)
    wristxG 0.95win prob +5 pts
    1-3
    18:49

Penalties

BUF 2 PIM·OTT 6 PIM

1st

  • 18:14OTTNick Holden · Trippingdrawn by JJ Peterka2 min
  • 18:34OTTTravis Hamonic · Hookingdrawn by Rasmus Dahlin2 min

2nd

  • 4:13OTTThomas Chabot · Trippingdrawn by Tage Thompson2 min
  • 9:59BUFDylan Cozens · Hookingdrawn by Shane Pinto2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
OTT goalBUF goalFinal: OTT 100%

Biggest swing: Jake Lucchini, 2nd 11:45 — OTT 55% → 72%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
T. Stützle · Goal · xG 0.95D. Gambrell · On goal · xG 0.22C. Giroux · On goal · xG 0.20M. Kastelic · On goal · xG 0.20T. Stützle · Goal · xG 0.20J. Lucchini · Goal · xG 0.17B. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.14J. Lucchini · Missed · xG 0.14D. Batherson · On goal · xG 0.12D. Batherson · Missed · xG 0.12T. Stützle · Missed · xG 0.12T. Stützle · Missed · xG 0.10A. DeBrincat · On goal · xG 0.09D. Batherson · On goal · xG 0.09B. Tkachuk · Missed · xG 0.08S. Pinto · On goal · xG 0.08B. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.08C. Giroux · On goal · xG 0.07D. Gambrell · Missed · xG 0.07T. Chabot · On goal · xG 0.07S. Pinto · On goal · xG 0.06P. Kelly · On goal · xG 0.05D. Brassard · On goal · xG 0.05D. Batherson · On goal · xG 0.03B. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.03D. Batherson · On goal · xG 0.03J. Sanderson · On goal · xG 0.02J. Lucchini · Missed · xG 0.02T. Hamonic · On goal · xG 0.02T. Chabot · On goal · xG 0.01T. Chabot · On goal · xG 0.01D. Brassard · On goal · xG 0.01P. Kelly · On goal · xG 0.01J. Lucchini · Missed · xG 0.01A. Zub · Missed · xG 0.01D. Batherson · On goal · xG 0.01B. Tkachuk · Missed · xG 0.01P. Kelly · On goal · xG 0.01J. Bernard-Docker · On goal · xG 0.01P. Kelly · On goal · xG 0.01B. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.01T. Hamonic · On goal · xG 0.01B. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.00
OTT3 G · 3.8 xG · 43 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

BUFvsOTT
3.21 G
All situations
2 G3.8
3.01 G
Even strength
1 G2.5
0.20 G
Power play
1 G0.3
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 96 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
BUF57%43%OTT

Flurry-adjusted xG 3.21 – 2.80

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

BUFvsOTT
34
Shots on goal
33
52%
Faceoffs
48%
0/3
Power play
1/1
2
Penalty minutes
6
18
Hits
33
7
Blocked shots
18
6
Giveaways
5
3
Takeaways
4

Box score

every player line
Buffalo Sabres skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
26R. DahlinD000-220.23110—29:29
25O. PowerD000-110.01110—25:15
23M. SamuelssonD011030.05200—23:41
89A. TuchR000-230.49110—19:47
53J. SkinnerL000-230.481005019:39
72T. ThompsonC000-220.480007118:34
38K. ClagueD000010.08100—17:22
24D. CozensC000-120.281024716:42
21K. OkposoR000+110.05100—15:24
28Z. GirgensonsC101+110.22100015:05
71V. OlofssonL000030.21010—14:53
19P. KrebsC000+120.182004614:26
37C. MittelstadtC000020.020005313:36
77J. PeterkaR000020.26100—12:20
78J. BrysonD000000.00020—12:10
17T. JostC000030.110006711:36
22J. QuinnR000030.09200—11:33
46I. LyubushkinD011+100.00310—07:45
Buffalo Sabres goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
41C. Anderson(L)32302.9382.81+0.8158:57

Season series

Tied 2-2

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).