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Red Wings at Maple Leafs
NHL

Detroit Red Wings at Toronto Maple Leafs

NHL scoreboard
Detroit Red Wings
▸5
Toronto Maple Leafs
2
FinalTV BSDET, SNO·Scotiabank Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Detroit Red Wings beat the Toronto Maple Leafs 5-2. The Red Wings scored first and never trailed. The Red Wings led 3-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Dylan Larkin's goal at 19:21 of the first period, which took the Red Wings' chances from 62% to 78%. Expected goals were close — DET 3.2, TOR 3.3; shots on goal were DET 24, TOR 45. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Maple Leafs win a replay of these chances 60% of the time. Alex Nedeljkovic stopped 43 of 45 (.956), 1.3 goals saved above expected; Ilya Samsonov stopped 14 of 16 (.875). Three stars: 1. Alex Nedeljkovic (43 saves, .956), 2. Dylan Larkin (3 G), 3. Olli Maatta (1 G, 1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    DET
    A. Nedeljkovic43 saves, .956
  2. ★★
    DET
    D. Larkin3 G
  3. ★★★
    DET
    O. Maatta1 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
DETDET3100727524
TORTOR115013117245

Scoring

7 goals

1st period

  1. DET
    O. Maatta(6)
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.12win prob +11 pts
    1-0
    1:30
  2. TOR
    C. Jarnkrok(19)PPG
    N. Abruzzese (1), C. Timmins (12)
    wristxG 0.14win prob +11 pts
    1-1
    7:33
  3. DET
    J. Berggren(14)
    R. Hagg (5), L. Raymond (24)
    wristxG 0.07win prob +14 pts
    2-1
    12:45
  4. DET
    D. Larkin(29)
    D. Kubalik (24), O. Maatta (15)
    wristxG 0.06win prob +16 pts
    3-1
    19:21

3rd period

  1. TOR
    J. Tavares(33)PPG
    M. Rielly (36), A. Matthews (42)
    wristxG 0.16win prob +12 pts
    3-2
    6:00
  2. DET
    D. Larkin(30)
    B. Chiarot (14), M. Seider (35)
    wristxG 0.18win prob +15 pts
    4-2
    10:16
  3. DET
    D. Larkin(31)EN
    J. Walman (7)
    wristxG 0.49win prob +1 pts
    5-2
    17:48

Penalties

DET 8 PIM·TOR 14 PIM

1st

  • 5:33DETAdam Erne · Cross checkingdrawn by Conor Timmins2 min
  • 7:56DETMarco Kasper · Ps covering puck in crease0 min
  • 9:06TORWayne Simmonds · Trippingdrawn by Marco Kasper2 min

2nd

  • 11:31DETLucas Raymond · Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  • 17:11DETJake Walman · Cross checkingdrawn by Michael Bunting2 min
  • 17:11TORMichael Bunting · Embellishmentdrawn by Jake Walman2 min
  • 19:58TORMichael Bunting · Misconduct10 min

3rd

  • 4:53DETDylan Larkin · Holdingdrawn by Nick Abruzzese2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
TOR goalDET goalFinal: TOR 0%

Biggest swing: Dylan Larkin, 1st 19:21 — DET 62% → 78%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
Z. Aston-Reese · Missed · xG 0.21D. Kampf · On goal · xG 0.19S. Lafferty · On goal · xG 0.18A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.17J. Tavares · Goal · xG 0.16C. Jarnkrok · On goal · xG 0.15C. Jarnkrok · Goal · xG 0.14M. Bunting · On goal · xG 0.13A. Kerfoot · On goal · xG 0.13A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.11R. Zohorna · On goal · xG 0.11C. Jarnkrok · Missed · xG 0.10W. Nylander · Missed · xG 0.09W. Nylander · On goal · xG 0.08C. Jarnkrok · Missed · xG 0.08M. Bunting · On goal · xG 0.07W. Nylander · On goal · xG 0.07Z. Aston-Reese · On goal · xG 0.07D. Kampf · On goal · xG 0.07A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.07M. Bunting · On goal · xG 0.06W. Nylander · On goal · xG 0.06A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.06C. Jarnkrok · On goal · xG 0.05J. Tavares · On goal · xG 0.05J. Tavares · On goal · xG 0.05A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.04D. Kampf · On goal · xG 0.04W. Nylander · On goal · xG 0.04J. Tavares · On goal · xG 0.04T. Liljegren · On goal · xG 0.03M. Bunting · On goal · xG 0.03A. Kerfoot · On goal · xG 0.03M. Rielly · On goal · xG 0.03T. Brodie · On goal · xG 0.03L. Schenn · On goal · xG 0.03R. Zohorna · Missed · xG 0.03R. Zohorna · On goal · xG 0.02J. Holl · On goal · xG 0.02Z. Aston-Reese · On goal · xG 0.02A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.02C. Jarnkrok · On goal · xG 0.02M. Rielly · On goal · xG 0.02L. Schenn · Missed · xG 0.02T. Brodie · Missed · xG 0.02Z. Aston-Reese · Missed · xG 0.01T. Brodie · Missed · xG 0.01D. Kampf · On goal · xG 0.01L. Schenn · On goal · xG 0.01M. Bunting · On goal · xG 0.01L. Schenn · On goal · xG 0.01M. Rielly · Missed · xG 0.01W. Simmonds · On goal · xG 0.01Z. Aston-Reese · Missed · xG 0.01M. Rielly · Missed · xG 0.01C. Jarnkrok · On goal · xG 0.00T. Brodie · On goal · xG 0.00
TOR2 G · 3.3 xG · 57 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

DETvsTOR
3.24 G
All situations
2 G3.3
2.54 G
Even strength
0 G2.2
0.20 G
Power play
2 G1.1
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 95 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
DET40%60%TOR

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.62 – 3.22

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

DETvsTOR
24
Shots on goal
45
36%
Faceoffs
64%
0/1
Power play
2/3
8
Penalty minutes
14
23
Hits
30
17
Blocked shots
10
6
Giveaways
11
7
Takeaways
8

Box score

every player line
Detroit Red Wings skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
53M. SeiderD011+320.13020—22:49
3S. EdvinssonD000000.02320—22:25
8B. ChiarotD011+120.15120—21:52
96J. WalmanD011+100.00042—20:16
71D. LarkinC303+450.811023918:32
18A. CoppC000010.250004718:20
2O. MaattaD112+310.14000—16:36
57D. PerronL000+310.00410—15:58
92M. KasperC000010.163001314:59
23L. RaymondL011+120.24102—14:54
81D. KubalikL011+310.20000—14:32
24P. SuterC000+110.030201814:31
38R. HaggD011+210.03120—14:23
90J. VelenoC000000.003105013:41
22M. LuffR000030.43100—13:04
73A. ErneL000+100.0040210012:22
52J. BerggrenR101+120.49100—12:11
48A. ChiassonR000+110.09010—11:28
Detroit Red Wings goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
39A. Nedeljkovic(W)45432.9563.34+1.3460:00

Season series

Tied 2-2

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).