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Maple Leafs at Red Wings
NHL

Toronto Maple Leafs at Detroit Red Wings

NHL scoreboard
Toronto Maple Leafs
▸4
Detroit Red Wings
2
FinalTV BSDET, SN·Little Caesars Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Toronto Maple Leafs beat the Detroit Red Wings 4-2. The Red Wings scored first; the Maple Leafs answered. The Maple Leafs led 4-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Mitch Marner's goal at 0:52 of the second period, which took the Maple Leafs' chances from 62% to 79%. Expected goals favored the Red Wings, 2.6 to 1.8; shots on goal were TOR 25, DET 44. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Red Wings win a replay of these chances 64% of the time. Matt Murray stopped 42 of 44 (.955), 0.6 goals saved above expected; Ville Husso stopped 9 of 13 (.692), 3.0 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Auston Matthews (1 G, 1 A), 2. Matt Murray (42 saves, .955), 3. Moritz Seider (1 G, 1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    TOR
    A. Matthews1 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    TOR
    M. Murray42 saves, .955
  3. ★★★
    DET
    M. Seider1 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
TORTOR2521406425
DETDET110015119244

Scoring

6 goals

1st period

  1. DET
    M. Seider(2)
    D. Larkin (15), D. Kubalik (13)
    wristxG 0.17win prob +12 pts
    0-1
    4:45
  2. TOR
    A. Matthews(11)
    M. Bunting (10), M. Hollowell (1)
    wristxG 0.09win prob +12 pts
    1-1
    8:24
  3. TOR
    W. Nylander(13)PPG
    J. Tavares (14), R. Sandin (7)
    wristxG 0.14win prob +10 pts
    2-1
    9:15

2nd period

  1. TOR
    M. Marner(7)
    M. Giordano (5), C. Jarnkrok (4)
    wristxG 0.05win prob +17 pts
    3-1
    0:52
  2. TOR
    R. Sandin(1)
    A. Matthews (15), A. Kerfoot (7)
    wristxG 0.02win prob +10 pts
    4-1
    8:37

3rd period

  1. DET
    A. Erne(3)
    M. Seider (9), B. Chiarot (4)
    tip-inxG 0.04win prob +2 pts
    4-2
    12:41

Penalties

TOR 6 PIM·DET 4 PIM

1st

  • 5:51TORRasmus Sandin · Hookingdrawn by Joseph Veleno2 min
  • 8:37DETDavid Perron · High stickingdrawn by Michael Bunting2 min

2nd

  • 14:45TORserved by D. Malgin · Too many men on the ice2 min
  • 15:37DETOskar Sundqvist · Trippingdrawn by Mitch Marner2 min

3rd

  • 4:31TORMichael Bunting · Hookingdrawn by Lucas Raymond2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
DET goalTOR goalFinal: DET 0%

Biggest swing: Mitch Marner, 2nd 0:52 — TOR 62% → 79%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
M. Seider · Goal · xG 0.17D. Kubalik · On goal · xG 0.14A. Erne · On goal · xG 0.13M. Rasmussen · On goal · xG 0.13T. Bertuzzi · On goal · xG 0.12J. Veleno · Missed · xG 0.11J. Veleno · On goal · xG 0.11D. Perron · On goal · xG 0.11D. Kubalik · On goal · xG 0.11D. Kubalik · On goal · xG 0.10D. Perron · On goal · xG 0.10D. Kubalik · On goal · xG 0.08A. Erne · On goal · xG 0.08D. Perron · On goal · xG 0.08D. Larkin · Missed · xG 0.06J. Berggren · On goal · xG 0.06D. Perron · On goal · xG 0.06A. Erne · On goal · xG 0.06T. Bertuzzi · On goal · xG 0.06P. Suter · On goal · xG 0.06O. Sundqvist · On goal · xG 0.05D. Kubalik · On goal · xG 0.05D. Larkin · On goal · xG 0.05J. Walman · On goal · xG 0.04O. Maatta · On goal · xG 0.04A. Erne · Goal · xG 0.04J. Berggren · On goal · xG 0.04D. Kubalik · On goal · xG 0.03D. Larkin · On goal · xG 0.03J. Berggren · On goal · xG 0.03D. Kubalik · On goal · xG 0.02M. Seider · On goal · xG 0.02J. Berggren · On goal · xG 0.02B. Chiarot · Missed · xG 0.02O. Sundqvist · Missed · xG 0.02O. Maatta · On goal · xG 0.02D. Perron · On goal · xG 0.02J. Walman · On goal · xG 0.01A. Copp · On goal · xG 0.01J. Veleno · On goal · xG 0.01J. Walman · On goal · xG 0.01J. Walman · Missed · xG 0.01A. Copp · Missed · xG 0.01J. Oesterle · On goal · xG 0.01O. Maatta · On goal · xG 0.01F. Hronek · On goal · xG 0.01J. Walman · On goal · xG 0.01D. Larkin · On goal · xG 0.00D. Larkin · On goal · xG 0.00M. Seider · On goal · xG 0.00
DET2 G · 2.6 xG · 50 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

TORvsDET
1.84 G
All situations
2 G2.6
1.43 G
Even strength
2 G2.0
0.41 G
Power play
0 G0.5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 78 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
TOR36%64%DET

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.76 – 2.52

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

TORvsDET
25
Shots on goal
44
56%
Faceoffs
44%
1/2
Power play
0/3
6
Penalty minutes
4
18
Hits
25
23
Blocked shots
5
7
Giveaways
6
1
Takeaways
2

Box score

every player line
Toronto Maple Leafs skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
3J. HollD000-120.19220—23:57
55M. GiordanoD011010.01200—22:43
37T. LiljegrenD000+210.07230—21:19
16M. MarnerR101+130.18030—19:33
98V. MeteD000-110.01010—18:32
34A. MatthewsC112+250.330505018:05
38R. SandinD112+220.05212—17:48
88W. NylanderR101+120.16000—17:36
64D. KampfC000-100.000005016:57
91J. TavaresC011040.331007516:10
58M. BuntingL011+210.03022—15:43
19C. JarnkrokC011010.1210010014:37
81M. HollowellD011000.00120—14:37
12Z. Aston-ReeseL000-100.00230—12:48
62D. MalginC000-110.20200012:40
15A. KerfootC011010.09110011:53
47P. EngvallL000000.00100—10:33
29P. HolmbergR000000.001005008:29
Toronto Maple Leafs goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
30M. Murray(W)44422.9552.58+0.5860:00

Season series

Tied 2-2

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).