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Maple Leafs at Red Wings
NHL

Toronto Maple Leafs at Detroit Red Wings

NHL scoreboard
Toronto Maple Leafs
1
Detroit Red Wings
▸4
FinalTV TVAS, TSN4·Little Caesars Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Detroit Red Wings beat the Toronto Maple Leafs 4-1. The Red Wings scored first and never trailed. The Red Wings led 2-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Rasmus Sandin's goal at 6:18 of the second period, which took the Maple Leafs' chances from 15% to 30%. Expected goals favored the Red Wings, 2.9 to 2.2; shots on goal were TOR 33, DET 23. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Maple Leafs win a replay of these chances 54% of the time. Ilya Samsonov stopped 19 of 22 (.864), 1.0 goals below expected; Ville Husso stopped 32 of 33 (.970), 1.2 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Robby Fabbri (1 G), 2. Ville Husso (32 saves, .970), 3. Rasmus Sandin (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    DET
    R. Fabbri1 G
  2. ★★
    DET
    V. Husso32 saves, .970
  3. ★★★
    TOR
    R. Sandin1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
TORTOR0818017133
DETDET191628423

Scoring

5 goals

1st period

  1. DET
    L. Raymond(12)
    D. Larkin (22)
    wristxG 0.06win prob +13 pts
    0-1
    8:48

2nd period

  1. DET
    R. Fabbri(3)PPG
    J. Berggren (9), D. Kubalik (17)
    snapxG 0.21win prob +13 pts
    0-2
    3:49
  2. TOR
    R. Sandin(3)
    J. Tavares (23), T. Liljegren (7)
    wristxG 0.05win prob +15 pts
    1-2
    6:18

3rd period

  1. DET
    B. Chiarot(3)EN
    L. Raymond (16), D. Larkin (23)
    wristxG 0.40win prob +4 pts
    1-3
    18:07
  2. DET
    M. Seider(3)PPG
    J. Walman (3), L. Raymond (17)
    wristxG 0.03
    1-4
    19:40

Penalties

TOR 10 PIM·DET 6 PIM

1st

  • 17:04TORWayne Simmonds · Interferencedrawn by Dominik Kubalik2 min

2nd

  • 0:38TORJordie Benn · Roughingdrawn by Robby Fabbri2 min
  • 2:00TORMorgan Rielly · Hookingdrawn by Dominik Kubalik2 min
  • 6:51DETFilip Hronek · Holdingdrawn by William Nylander2 min

3rd

  • 4:50DETJake Walman · Trippingdrawn by Pontus Holmberg2 min
  • 10:01DETMichael Rasmussen · Holdingdrawn by Pontus Holmberg2 min
  • 10:59TORJohn Tavares · Slashingdrawn by Ben Chiarot2 min
  • 18:49TORWilliam Nylander · High stickingdrawn by Jake Walman2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
DET goalTOR goalFinal: DET 100%

Biggest swing: Rasmus Sandin, 2nd 6:18 — TOR 15% → 30%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
R. Fabbri · Missed · xG 0.56B. Chiarot · Goal · xG 0.40R. Fabbri · Goal · xG 0.21J. Berggren · Missed · xG 0.16J. Berggren · On goal · xG 0.16T. Bertuzzi · Missed · xG 0.14M. Rasmussen · On goal · xG 0.14O. Sundqvist · On goal · xG 0.13J. Veleno · On goal · xG 0.11D. Perron · On goal · xG 0.11D. Larkin · On goal · xG 0.08T. Bertuzzi · Missed · xG 0.08M. Seider · Missed · xG 0.08R. Fabbri · On goal · xG 0.07R. Fabbri · Missed · xG 0.06L. Raymond · Goal · xG 0.06J. Berggren · On goal · xG 0.06J. Walman · Missed · xG 0.05A. Erne · On goal · xG 0.04T. Bertuzzi · On goal · xG 0.03D. Larkin · On goal · xG 0.03M. Seider · On goal · xG 0.03M. Seider · Missed · xG 0.03M. Seider · Goal · xG 0.03F. Hronek · On goal · xG 0.02M. Rasmussen · On goal · xG 0.01J. Walman · On goal · xG 0.01D. Larkin · On goal · xG 0.01B. Chiarot · On goal · xG 0.01F. Hronek · Missed · xG 0.01A. Copp · On goal · xG 0.00J. Walman · On goal · xG 0.00
DET4 G · 2.9 xG · 32 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

TORvsDET
2.21 G
All situations
3 G2.9
1.31 G
Even strength
1 G1.4
0.80 G
Power play
2 G0.6
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 74 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
TOR54%46%DET

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.15 – 1.96

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

TORvsDET
33
Shots on goal
23
46%
Faceoffs
54%
0/3
Power play
2/5
10
Penalty minutes
6
18
Hits
15
10
Blocked shots
11
4
Giveaways
6
0
Takeaways
6

Box score

every player line
Toronto Maple Leafs skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
16M. MarnerR000-130.10100—23:01
91J. TavaresC011-170.700024622:26
3J. HollD000000.00010—21:18
37T. LiljegrenD011+120.02210—20:44
55M. GiordanoD000010.02010—20:01
44M. RiellyD000-200.00032—19:31
38R. SandinD101+120.07400—19:12
58M. BuntingL000-120.16100—18:23
88W. NylanderR000-140.480125018:13
64D. KampfC000000.030005816:55
19C. JarnkrokC000-120.03000016:49
18J. BennD000-110.05322—14:46
15A. KerfootC000000.00100013:28
47P. EngvallL000030.15100—12:36
29P. HolmbergR000010.091104311:32
74B. McMannC000040.19200010:05
12Z. Aston-ReeseL000010.01000—07:16
24W. SimmondsR000000.06202—06:00
Toronto Maple Leafs goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
35I. Samsonov(L)22193.8641.96-1.0459:04

Season series

Tied 2-2

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).