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Red Wings at Maple Leafs
NHL

Detroit Red Wings at Toronto Maple Leafs

NHL scoreboard
Detroit Red Wings
1
Toronto Maple Leafs
▸4
FinalTV BSDET, SN·Scotiabank Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Toronto Maple Leafs beat the Detroit Red Wings 4-1. The Red Wings scored first; the Maple Leafs answered. The Maple Leafs led 2-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was John Tavares's goal at 6:37 of the second period, which took the Maple Leafs' chances from 53% to 70%. Expected goals favored the Maple Leafs, 3.5 to 2.0; shots on goal were DET 23, TOR 29. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Maple Leafs win a replay of these chances 64% of the time. Magnus Hellberg stopped 25 of 28 (.893); Ilya Samsonov stopped 22 of 23 (.957), 1.0 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Mitch Marner (1 G, 1 A), 2. John Tavares (2 G), 3. Ilya Samsonov (22 saves, .957).

Three stars

  1. ★
    TOR
    M. Marner1 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    TOR
    J. Tavares2 G
  3. ★★★
    TOR
    I. Samsonov22 saves, .957

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
DETDET1801005123
TORTOR02212215429

Scoring

5 goals

1st period

  1. DET
    J. Walman(3)
    O. Maatta (11), F. Hronek (22)
    wristxG 0.18win prob +13 pts
    1-0
    11:57

2nd period

  1. TOR
    M. Marner(15)PPG
    A. Matthews (27), M. Rielly (18)
    wristxG 0.21win prob +14 pts
    1-1
    0:24
  2. TOR
    J. Tavares(17)
    C. Jarnkrok (9), M. Giordano (12)
    wristxG 0.13win prob +17 pts
    1-2
    6:37

3rd period

  1. TOR
    P. Holmberg(4)
    M. Rielly (19), T. Brodie (6)
    tip-inxG 0.05win prob +15 pts
    1-3
    6:19
  2. TOR
    J. Tavares(18)EN
    M. Marner (31), J. Holl (5)
    backhandxG 0.78
    1-4
    18:21

Penalties

DET 10 PIM·TOR 8 PIM

1st

  • 0:54DETMoritz Seider · Trippingdrawn by William Nylander2 min
  • 9:48DETJake Walman · Hookingdrawn by Mitch Marner2 min
  • 9:56TORAuston Matthews · Trippingdrawn by Andrew Copp2 min
  • 16:54TORMark Giordano · Holdingdrawn by Oskar Sundqvist2 min
  • 18:39DETJonatan Berggren · Cross checkingdrawn by Alexander Kerfoot2 min

2nd

  • 13:05TORMichael Bunting · Roughingdrawn by Lucas Raymond2 min
  • 16:51DETBen Chiarot · Cross checkingdrawn by Michael Bunting2 min

3rd

  • 1:53DETPius Suter · Holding the stickdrawn by David Kampf2 min
  • 3:21TORJohn Tavares · Trippingdrawn by Michael Rasmussen2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
TOR goalDET goalFinal: TOR 100%

Biggest swing: John Tavares, 2nd 6:37 — TOR 53% → 70%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
J. Tavares · Goal · xG 0.78J. Tavares · On goal · xG 0.23M. Marner · Goal · xG 0.21J. Tavares · Missed · xG 0.18J. Tavares · Missed · xG 0.15J. Tavares · Goal · xG 0.13J. Tavares · On goal · xG 0.12J. Tavares · On goal · xG 0.12D. Kampf · On goal · xG 0.10A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.10W. Nylander · On goal · xG 0.10M. Bunting · Missed · xG 0.09W. Nylander · On goal · xG 0.09A. Matthews · Missed · xG 0.08D. Kampf · Missed · xG 0.07P. Engvall · On goal · xG 0.07A. Kerfoot · On goal · xG 0.07A. Matthews · Missed · xG 0.06A. Matthews · Missed · xG 0.06M. Marner · Missed · xG 0.06D. Kampf · On goal · xG 0.06D. Kampf · On goal · xG 0.06A. Matthews · Missed · xG 0.06J. Tavares · On goal · xG 0.05A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.05P. Holmberg · Missed · xG 0.05P. Holmberg · Goal · xG 0.05M. Bunting · On goal · xG 0.04J. Tavares · On goal · xG 0.04M. Rielly · On goal · xG 0.03W. Nylander · On goal · xG 0.03W. Nylander · Missed · xG 0.03D. Kampf · On goal · xG 0.02T. Liljegren · On goal · xG 0.02M. Rielly · On goal · xG 0.02W. Nylander · On goal · xG 0.02R. Sandin · On goal · xG 0.01Z. Aston-Reese · Missed · xG 0.01R. Sandin · On goal · xG 0.01M. Rielly · Missed · xG 0.01M. Bunting · On goal · xG 0.00M. Rielly · On goal · xG 0.00
TOR4 G · 3.5 xG · 42 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

DETvsTOR
2.01 G
All situations
3 G3.5
1.51 G
Even strength
2 G1.4
0.50 G
Power play
1 G1.3
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 77 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
DET36%64%TOR

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.96 – 2.73

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

DETvsTOR
23
Shots on goal
29
48%
Faceoffs
52%
0/4
Power play
1/5
10
Penalty minutes
8
38
Hits
21
13
Blocked shots
9
5
Giveaways
15
6
Takeaways
8

Box score

every player line
Detroit Red Wings skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
53M. SeiderD000-100.04512—24:50
96J. WalmanD101+140.36312—22:23
17F. HronekD011020.10210—20:36
71D. LarkinC000030.272006019:56
18A. CoppC000-110.081204119:48
8B. ChiarotD000-150.05452—19:14
27M. RasmussenC000030.22600017:39
2O. MaattaD011000.00400—17:24
57D. PerronL000-110.09000—16:30
23L. RaymondL000-100.17200—15:31
52J. BerggrenR000-100.00002—15:23
82J. OesterleD000-100.00010—14:11
70O. SundqvistC000-120.21120013:53
73A. ErneL000000.00500—12:46
90J. VelenoC000-110.210005712:15
81D. KubalikL000-210.04100—11:29
24P. SuterC000000.090026409:30
85E. SoderblomL000-100.03200—08:18
Detroit Red Wings goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
45M. Hellberg(L)28253.8932.75-0.2558:39

Season series

Tied 2-2

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).