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Predators at Avalanche
NHL

Nashville Predators at Colorado Avalanche

NHL scoreboard
Nashville Predators
1
Colorado Avalanche
▸3
FinalTV ALT, BSSO·Ball Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Colorado Avalanche beat the Nashville Predators 3-1. The Avalanche scored first and never trailed. The Avalanche led 2-0 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Alex Newhook's goal at 19:44 of the second period, which took the Avalanche's chances from 75% to 91%. Expected goals favored the Avalanche, 3.5 to 1.9; shots on goal were NSH 26, COL 30. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Avalanche win a replay of these chances 67% of the time. Juuse Saros stopped 27 of 29 (.931), 1.0 goals saved above expected; Alexandar Georgiev stopped 25 of 26 (.962), 0.9 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Alex Newhook (1 G), 2. Mikko Rantanen (1 G), 3. Matt Duchene (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    COL
    A. Newhook1 G
  2. ★★
    COL
    M. Rantanen1 G
  3. ★★★
    NSH
    M. Duchene1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
NSHNSH0100818126
COLCOL08212110330

Scoring

4 goals

2nd period

  1. COL
    M. Rantanen(21)PPG
    C. Makar (21)
    wristxG 0.07win prob +13 pts
    0-1
    8:38
  2. COL
    A. Newhook(7)
    E. Rodrigues (4), V. Nichushkin (9)
    wristxG 0.12win prob +16 pts
    0-2
    19:44

3rd period

  1. NSH
    M. Duchene(7)
    N. Niederreiter (4)
    wristxG 0.09win prob +15 pts
    1-2
    3:25
  2. COL
    C. Makar(7)EN
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.50win prob +2 pts
    1-3
    19:28

Penalties

NSH 6 PIM·COL 4 PIM

1st

  • 13:59NSHJordan Gross · Hookingdrawn by Dryden Hunt2 min
  • 19:45COLMikko Rantanen · Slashingdrawn by Cole Smith2 min

2nd

  • 4:52COLAndrew Cogliano · Trippingdrawn by Roman Josi2 min
  • 7:50NSHYakov Trenin · Holdingdrawn by Alex Newhook2 min
  • 14:01NSHRyan Johansen · Hookingdrawn by Cale Makar2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
COL goalNSH goalFinal: COL 100%

Biggest swing: Alex Newhook, 2nd 19:44 — COL 75% → 91%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
C. Makar · Goal · xG 0.50V. Nichushkin · On goal · xG 0.38V. Nichushkin · Missed · xG 0.25V. Nichushkin · Missed · xG 0.15V. Nichushkin · On goal · xG 0.15A. Newhook · Goal · xG 0.11J. Compher · On goal · xG 0.11M. Rantanen · Missed · xG 0.11C. Makar · On goal · xG 0.11C. Makar · On goal · xG 0.10A. Newhook · Missed · xG 0.10V. Nichushkin · On goal · xG 0.10J. Compher · On goal · xG 0.09V. Nichushkin · On goal · xG 0.07M. Rantanen · Goal · xG 0.07J. Compher · On goal · xG 0.07M. Rantanen · On goal · xG 0.07B. Meyers · On goal · xG 0.06A. Lehkonen · On goal · xG 0.06E. Rodrigues · On goal · xG 0.06L. O'Connor · Missed · xG 0.06J. Compher · On goal · xG 0.05M. Rantanen · Missed · xG 0.05C. Makar · Missed · xG 0.05A. Lehkonen · On goal · xG 0.05L. O'Connor · On goal · xG 0.05L. O'Connor · Missed · xG 0.04M. Rantanen · Missed · xG 0.04J. Compher · On goal · xG 0.04E. Rodrigues · On goal · xG 0.04B. Hunt · Missed · xG 0.04C. Makar · On goal · xG 0.03C. Makar · On goal · xG 0.03D. Toews · On goal · xG 0.03V. Nichushkin · On goal · xG 0.03D. Toews · Missed · xG 0.02A. Englund · Missed · xG 0.02C. Makar · Missed · xG 0.02A. Englund · Missed · xG 0.02E. Johnson · Missed · xG 0.01C. Makar · On goal · xG 0.01J. Compher · On goal · xG 0.01L. O'Connor · On goal · xG 0.01A. Englund · On goal · xG 0.01C. Makar · On goal · xG 0.00
COL3 G · 3.5 xG · 45 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

NSHvsCOL
1.91 G
All situations
2 G3.5
1.51 G
Even strength
1 G1.5
0.30 G
Power play
1 G1.4
0.10 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 81 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
NSH33%67%COL

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.91 – 2.83

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

NSHvsCOL
26
Shots on goal
30
54%
Faceoffs
46%
0/2
Power play
1/3
6
Penalty minutes
4
27
Hits
17
18
Blocked shots
18
3
Giveaways
7
8
Takeaways
11

Box score

every player line
Nashville Predators skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
59R. JosiD000050.11100—26:03
14M. EkholmD000000.00210—21:27
57D. FabbroD000020.01240—21:27
95M. DucheneC101020.210005020:20
46J. GrossD000+120.13212—18:58
9F. ForsbergL000-110.09010—17:04
64M. GranlundC000-110.07120016:22
75J. ParssinenC000-110.223002916:05
3J. LauzonD000-110.02220—15:39
22N. NiederreiterR011010.16010—14:56
5K. GravelD000-110.01220—14:41
92R. JohansenC000-130.362124614:20
84T. JeannotL000-100.03200—14:04
17M. JankowskiL000000.102206713:59
8C. GlassC000+130.270006413:43
10C. SissonsC000000.003105013:17
13Y. TreninC000-120.0710210012:14
36C. SmithR000010.09200—11:31
Nashville Predators goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
74J. Saros(L)29272.9312.98+0.9859:02

Season series

COL leads 4-0

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).