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Avalanche at Predators
NHL

Colorado Avalanche at Nashville Predators

NHL scoreboard
Colorado Avalanche
▸4
Nashville Predators
3
FinalTV ALT, BSSO·Bridgestone Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Colorado Avalanche beat the Nashville Predators 4-3. The Avalanche scored first and never trailed. It was tied 3-3 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Nathan MacKinnon's goal at 18:18 of the third period, which took the Avalanche's chances from 48% to 95%. Expected goals favored the Avalanche, 3.3 to 1.6; shots on goal were COL 34, NSH 21. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Avalanche win a replay of these chances 72% of the time. Alexandar Georgiev stopped 18 of 21 (.857), 1.4 goals below expected; Kevin Lankinen stopped 30 of 34 (.882), 1.2 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Nathan MacKinnon (3 G, 1 A), 2. Kiefer Sherwood (2 G), 3. Luke Evangelista (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    COL
    N. MacKinnon3 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    NSH
    K. Sherwood2 G
  3. ★★★
    NSH
    L. Evangelista1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
COLCOL31805111434
NSHNSH142809321

Scoring

7 goals

1st period

  1. COL
    D. Toews(7)
    N. MacKinnon (69), E. Rodrigues (23)
    wristxG 0.01win prob +11 pts
    1-0
    0:28
  2. COL
    N. MacKinnon(40)
    D. Toews (43), M. Rantanen (49)
    wristxG 0.17win prob +15 pts
    2-0
    3:20
  3. NSH
    K. Sherwood(6)
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.02win prob +15 pts
    2-1
    5:42
  4. COL
    N. MacKinnon(41)
    S. Girard (31)
    backhandxG 0.23win prob +16 pts
    3-1
    13:14

2nd period

  1. NSH
    L. Evangelista(7)
    T. Novak (26), C. Foote (5)
    wristxG 0.05win prob +16 pts
    3-2
    2:32
  2. NSH
    K. Sherwood(7)PPG
    Y. Trenin (12), C. Sissons (18)
    wristxG 0.17win prob +16 pts
    3-3
    7:08

3rd period

  1. COL
    N. MacKinnon(42)
    M. Rantanen (50)
    snapxG 0.07win prob +47 pts
    4-3
    18:18

Penalties

COL 4 PIM·NSH 8 PIM

1st

  • 6:37NSHYakov Trenin · Interferencedrawn by Mikko Rantanen2 min
  • 14:54NSHSpencer Stastney · High stickingdrawn by Lars Eller2 min

2nd

  • 5:50COLKurtis MacDermid · Trippingdrawn by Luke Evangelista2 min
  • 15:45COLEvan Rodrigues · Slashingdrawn by Colton Sissons2 min

3rd

  • 0:42NSHDante Fabbro · Roughingdrawn by Nathan MacKinnon2 min
  • 3:35NSHJake Livingstone · Trippingdrawn by Matt Nieto2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
NSH goalCOL goalFinal: NSH 0%

Biggest swing: Nathan MacKinnon, 3rd 18:18 — COL 48% → 95%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
T. Novak · On goal · xG 0.20K. Sherwood · Goal · xG 0.16Z. Sanford · On goal · xG 0.14K. Sherwood · Missed · xG 0.13Z. Sanford · Missed · xG 0.12R. Asplund · Missed · xG 0.12K. Sherwood · Missed · xG 0.11R. McDonagh · On goal · xG 0.09D. Fabbro · On goal · xG 0.07P. Tomasino · On goal · xG 0.06M. Jankowski · On goal · xG 0.05D. Fabbro · On goal · xG 0.05L. Evangelista · Goal · xG 0.05Z. Sanford · On goal · xG 0.04T. Barrie · Missed · xG 0.03P. Tomasino · On goal · xG 0.03C. Glass · On goal · xG 0.03K. Sherwood · Goal · xG 0.02J. Livingstone · On goal · xG 0.01C. Glass · On goal · xG 0.01T. Novak · On goal · xG 0.01C. Foote · Missed · xG 0.01R. McDonagh · On goal · xG 0.01R. Asplund · On goal · xG 0.01J. Livingstone · On goal · xG 0.01S. Stastney · On goal · xG 0.01Y. Trenin · On goal · xG 0.00
NSH3 G · 1.6 xG · 27 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

COLvsNSH
3.34 G
All situations
3 G1.6
2.14 G
Even strength
2 G1.4
0.60 G
Power play
1 G0.2
0.10 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 75 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
COL72%28%NSH

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.77 – 1.60

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

COLvsNSH
34
Shots on goal
21
39%
Faceoffs
61%
0/4
Power play
1/2
4
Penalty minutes
8
12
Hits
22
12
Blocked shots
22
9
Giveaways
10
11
Takeaways
3

Box score

every player line
Colorado Avalanche skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
49S. GirardD011+410.01100—25:23
4B. ByramD000000.00220—25:11
7D. ToewsD112+240.25010—24:54
29N. MacKinnonC314+480.790004623:34
13V. NichushkinR000+120.21100—22:07
9E. RodriguesC011+310.10002021:46
37J. CompherL000000.081104120:24
96M. RantanenR022+320.640002519:02
62A. LehkonenL000030.26110—18:22
3J. JohnsonD000020.09410—17:39
6E. JohnsonD000-130.06140—16:29
25L. O'ConnorR000020.31000—12:38
20L. EllerC000030.230004312:23
83M. NietoL000020.08100—11:53
18A. NewhookC000-110.160005010:47
59B. MeyersC000-200.00010006:02
56K. MacDermidL000-100.00012—05:16
47A. GalchenyukC000-200.00000002:56
Colorado Avalanche goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
40A. Georgiev(W)21183.8571.61-1.3959:56

Season series

COL leads 4-0

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).