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Predators at Avalanche
NHL

Nashville Predators at Colorado Avalanche

NHL scoreboard
Nashville Predators
3
Colorado Avalanche
▸5
FinalTV ALT, BSSO·Ball Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Colorado Avalanche beat the Nashville Predators 5-3. The Predators scored first; the Avalanche answered. The Avalanche led 5-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Logan O'Connor's goal at 6:34 of the second period, which took the Avalanche's chances from 53% to 70%. Expected goals favored the Avalanche, 3.3 to 2.0; shots on goal were NSH 35, COL 35. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Avalanche win a replay of these chances 71% of the time. Kevin Lankinen stopped 30 of 35 (.857), 1.7 goals below expected; Alexandar Georgiev stopped 32 of 35 (.914), 1.0 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Mikko Rantanen (2 G, 1 A), 2. Logan O'Connor (2 G), 3. Nathan MacKinnon (2 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    COL
    M. Rantanen2 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    COL
    L. O'Connor2 G
  3. ★★★
    COL
    N. MacKinnon2 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
NSHNSH11411219335
COLCOL12141103535

Scoring

8 goals

1st period

  1. NSH
    E. Tolvanen(2)
    R. McDonagh (5), C. Glass (2)
    wristxG 0.05win prob +12 pts
    1-0
    3:45
  2. COL
    M. Rantanen(8)PPG
    N. MacKinnon (17), A. Lehkonen (5)
    snapxG 0.16win prob +9 pts
    1-1
    7:37

2nd period

  1. COL
    L. O'Connor(4)
    D. Toews (8), J. Compher (2)
    tip-inxG 0.07win prob +17 pts
    1-2
    6:34
  2. COL
    L. O'Connor(5)
    J. Compher (3)
    backhandxG 0.19win prob +16 pts
    1-3
    7:59
  3. COL
    M. Rantanen(9)
    N. MacKinnon (18), K. MacDermid (1)
    wristxG 0.25win prob +10 pts
    1-4
    10:48
  4. COL
    E. Rodrigues(5)PPG
    M. Rantanen (10), C. Makar (13)
    snapxG 0.11win prob +2 pts
    1-5
    15:12
  5. NSH
    R. Johansen(5)PPG
    M. Granlund (10), F. Forsberg (9)
    tip-inxG 0.10win prob +2 pts
    2-5
    19:32

3rd period

  1. NSH
    R. Josi(3)
    D. Fabbro (3), Y. Trenin (3)
    slapxG 0.02win prob +5 pts
    3-5
    2:59

Penalties

NSH 6 PIM·COL 4 PIM

1st

  • 6:29NSHRyan McDonagh · Cross checkingdrawn by J.T. Compher2 min
  • 18:53NSHFilip Forsberg · Slashingdrawn by Nathan MacKinnon2 min

2nd

  • 8:40COLMikko Rantanen · Cross checkingdrawn by Mattias Ekholm2 min
  • 14:32NSHJeremy Lauzon · Trippingdrawn by Nathan MacKinnon2 min
  • 19:05COLArtturi Lehkonen · Holdingdrawn by Mattias Ekholm2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
COL goalNSH goalFinal: COL 100%

Biggest swing: Logan O'Connor, 2nd 6:34 — COL 53% → 70%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
M. Rantanen · Goal · xG 0.25N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.23L. O'Connor · On goal · xG 0.22L. O'Connor · Goal · xG 0.19M. Rantanen · Goal · xG 0.16M. Rantanen · On goal · xG 0.16N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.16M. Rantanen · On goal · xG 0.14E. Rodrigues · Goal · xG 0.11S. Ranta · On goal · xG 0.10E. Rodrigues · On goal · xG 0.10M. Kaut · Missed · xG 0.09M. Rantanen · On goal · xG 0.09N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.09N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.07S. Ranta · On goal · xG 0.07L. O'Connor · Goal · xG 0.07L. O'Connor · Missed · xG 0.07A. Lehkonen · On goal · xG 0.06S. Bowers · On goal · xG 0.06M. Kaut · Missed · xG 0.06A. Newhook · On goal · xG 0.05N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.05E. Rodrigues · Missed · xG 0.05S. Ranta · Missed · xG 0.05C. Makar · On goal · xG 0.05A. Cogliano · On goal · xG 0.05N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.05A. Lehkonen · On goal · xG 0.04N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.04L. O'Connor · Missed · xG 0.03J. Manson · Missed · xG 0.03N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.03A. Lehkonen · Missed · xG 0.02C. Makar · Missed · xG 0.02D. Toews · Missed · xG 0.02C. Makar · Missed · xG 0.02A. Cogliano · On goal · xG 0.02M. Kaut · On goal · xG 0.01N. MacKinnon · Missed · xG 0.01M. Kaut · On goal · xG 0.01J. MacDonald · On goal · xG 0.01J. MacDonald · On goal · xG 0.01E. Rodrigues · On goal · xG 0.01A. Newhook · Missed · xG 0.01E. Johnson · On goal · xG 0.01J. MacDonald · Missed · xG 0.01C. Makar · On goal · xG 0.01E. Rodrigues · On goal · xG 0.00
COL5 G · 3.3 xG · 49 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

NSHvsCOL
2.03 G
All situations
5 G3.3
1.52 G
Even strength
3 G2.4
0.51 G
Power play
2 G0.9
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 91 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
NSH29%71%COL

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.99 – 3.20

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

NSHvsCOL
35
Shots on goal
35
55%
Faceoffs
45%
1/2
Power play
2/3
6
Penalty minutes
4
32
Hits
23
12
Blocked shots
21
3
Giveaways
8
4
Takeaways
9

Box score

every player line
Nashville Predators skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
59R. JosiD101050.14320—24:42
95M. DucheneC000-120.230005020:38
9F. ForsbergL011-130.05022—19:50
64M. GranlundC011-120.174003519:44
14M. EkholmD000-120.03120—19:17
27R. McDonaghD011-120.05122—18:53
92R. JohansenC101020.121006018:40
10C. SissonsC000-130.254005618:13
22N. NiederreiterR000-110.18100—18:10
57D. FabbroD011+100.01120—17:43
3J. LauzonD000-110.04402—17:23
45A. CarrierD000000.02200—17:09
84T. JeannotL000+130.08300—14:55
13Y. TreninC011020.04110013:13
17M. JankowskiL000040.490008812:18
8C. GlassC011010.040002009:38
28E. TolvanenR101+120.06410—09:09
36C. SmithR000000.00200—09:02
Nashville Predators goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
32K. Lankinen(L)35305.8573.26-1.7457:35

Season series

COL leads 4-0

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).