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Avalanche at Predators
NHL

Colorado Avalanche at Nashville Predators

NHL scoreboard
Colorado Avalanche
▸3
Nashville Predators
2
Final/OTTV ALT, BSSO·Bridgestone Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Colorado Avalanche beat the Nashville Predators 3-2 in overtime, Samuel Girard scoring at 4:17. The Avalanche came back from two goals down. The Predators led 2-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Samuel Girard's goal at 4:17 of overtime, which took the Avalanche's chances from 49% to 100%. Expected goals were close — COL 3.9, NSH 3.7; shots on goal were COL 46, NSH 39. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Avalanche win a replay of these chances 53% of the time. Alexandar Georgiev stopped 37 of 39 (.949), 1.7 goals saved above expected; Juuse Saros stopped 43 of 46 (.935), 0.9 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Samuel Girard (1 G), 2. Alexandar Georgiev (37 saves, .949), 3. Juuse Saros (43 saves, .935).

Three stars

  1. ★
    COL
    S. Girard1 G
  2. ★★
    COL
    A. Georgiev37 saves, .949
  3. ★★★
    NSH
    J. Saros43 saves, .935

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdOTT
COLCOL0812111512346
NSHNSH1151901401239

Scoring

5 goals

1st period

  1. NSH
    R. Johansen(9)PPG
    T. Novak (2), R. Josi (19)
    wristxG 0.17win prob +10 pts
    0-1
    12:26

2nd period

  1. NSH
    M. Duchene(10)
    C. Glass (6), N. Niederreiter (6)
    wristxG 0.15win prob +15 pts
    0-2
    6:22
  2. COL
    M. Rantanen(23)
    L. O'Connor (5)
    wristxG 0.11win prob +15 pts
    1-2
    12:46

3rd period

  1. COL
    J. Compher(5)
    A. Lehkonen (14), M. Rantanen (19)
    tip-inxG 0.08win prob +38 pts
    2-2
    15:05

Overtime

  1. COL
    S. Girard(2)
    E. Rodrigues (5)
    wristxG 0.15win prob +51 pts
    3-2
    4:17

Penalties

COL 6 PIM·NSH 8 PIM

1st

  • 8:03NSHRoman Josi · Trippingdrawn by Valeri Nichushkin2 min
  • 11:38COLMikko Rantanen · Trippingdrawn by Tommy Novak2 min
  • 16:50NSHAlexandre Carrier · Trippingdrawn by Evan Rodrigues2 min
  • 17:34COLEvan Rodrigues · Holdingdrawn by Yakov Trenin2 min

2nd

  • 4:20COLEvan Rodrigues · Trippingdrawn by Nino Niederreiter2 min
  • 9:15NSHAlexandre Carrier · Holdingdrawn by Jacob MacDonald2 min

3rd

  • 18:49NSHRyan Johansen · High stickingdrawn by J.T. Compher2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
NSH goalCOL goalFinal: NSH 0%

Biggest swing: Samuel Girard, OT 4:17 — COL 49% → 100%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
M. Duchene · On goal · xG 0.24C. Smith · On goal · xG 0.21R. Josi · Missed · xG 0.20F. Forsberg · On goal · xG 0.20M. Granlund · Missed · xG 0.18R. Johansen · Goal · xG 0.17C. Smith · On goal · xG 0.16M. Duchene · Goal · xG 0.15F. Forsberg · On goal · xG 0.14C. Smith · On goal · xG 0.14F. Forsberg · Missed · xG 0.13C. Smith · On goal · xG 0.11N. Niederreiter · On goal · xG 0.10R. Josi · Missed · xG 0.10M. Duchene · Missed · xG 0.10R. Johansen · On goal · xG 0.09N. Niederreiter · On goal · xG 0.09D. Fabbro · On goal · xG 0.09F. Forsberg · On goal · xG 0.08R. Johansen · Missed · xG 0.08C. Smith · On goal · xG 0.08F. Forsberg · Missed · xG 0.08M. Duchene · On goal · xG 0.06J. Parssinen · Missed · xG 0.06T. Jeannot · On goal · xG 0.06J. Parssinen · Missed · xG 0.06T. Novak · On goal · xG 0.06R. Josi · On goal · xG 0.05J. Parssinen · Missed · xG 0.04M. Ekholm · On goal · xG 0.04F. Forsberg · On goal · xG 0.04R. Johansen · On goal · xG 0.04F. Forsberg · Missed · xG 0.02T. Jeannot · On goal · xG 0.02Y. Trenin · On goal · xG 0.02A. Carrier · On goal · xG 0.02D. Fabbro · On goal · xG 0.02N. Niederreiter · On goal · xG 0.02C. Sissons · On goal · xG 0.02R. McDonagh · On goal · xG 0.02R. McDonagh · On goal · xG 0.01M. Ekholm · On goal · xG 0.01M. Duchene · On goal · xG 0.01D. Fabbro · On goal · xG 0.01C. Glass · On goal · xG 0.01Y. Trenin · On goal · xG 0.01M. Ekholm · On goal · xG 0.01F. Forsberg · On goal · xG 0.00T. Jeannot · On goal · xG 0.00M. Ekholm · On goal · xG 0.00
NSH2 G · 3.7 xG · 50 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

COLvsNSH
3.93 G
All situations
2 G3.7
3.13 G
Even strength
1 G2.9
0.70 G
Power play
1 G0.7

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 110 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
COL53%47%NSH

Flurry-adjusted xG 3.86 – 3.63

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

COLvsNSH
46
Shots on goal
39
51%
Faceoffs
49%
0/4
Power play
1/3
6
Penalty minutes
8
26
Hits
27
11
Blocked shots
21
8
Giveaways
6
12
Takeaways
11

Box score

every player line
Colorado Avalanche skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
8C. MakarD000+150.34030—30:08
7D. ToewsD000020.13220—29:10
96M. RantanenR112+2131.041124028:51
62A. LehkonenL011030.27010—24:58
37J. CompherL101030.280105024:50
49S. GirardD101+150.39000—23:40
9E. RodriguesC011010.030045823:07
6E. JohnsonD000+100.00620—18:12
81D. MalginC000030.32000017:22
18A. NewhookC000020.132002916:42
59B. MeyersC000+130.340105814:22
25L. O'ConnorR011+130.32400—13:39
13V. NichushkinR000020.20100—13:31
88A. EnglundD000+100.00800—11:39
17B. HuntD000010.07100—10:32
61M. KautR000000.0010010005:35
26J. MacDonaldD000000.00000—04:33
56K. MacDermidL000000.00000—01:12
Colorado Avalanche goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
40A. Georgiev(W)39372.9493.66+1.6664:09

Season series

COL leads 4-0

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).