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Washington Capitals at Florida Panthers

FinalTV ESPN2, NBCSWA·FLA Live Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Washington Capitals beat the Florida Panthers 4-2. The lead changed hands 2 times. The Panthers led 2-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was T.J. Oshie's goal at 10:37 of the third period, which took the Capitals' chances from 48% to 81%. Expected goals favored the Capitals, 3.6 to 1.9; shots on goal were WSH 38, FLA 32. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Capitals win a replay of these chances 72% of the time. Vitek Vanecek stopped 30 of 32 (.938); Sergei Bobrovsky stopped 34 of 37 (.919). Three stars: 1. Evgeny Kuznetsov (1 G), 2. T.J. Oshie (1 G), 3. Sergei Bobrovsky (34 saves, .919).

Three stars

  1. ★
    WSH
    E. Kuznetsov1 G
  2. ★★
    WSH
    T. Oshie1 G
  3. ★★★
    FLA
    S. Bobrovsky34 saves, .919

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
WSHWSH11701437438
FLAFLA110110012232

Scoring

6 goals

1st period

  1. WSH
    T. Wilson(1)PPG
    snapxG 0.26win prob +10 pts
    1-0
    3:47
  2. FLA
    wristxG 0.02win prob +15 pts
    1-1
    17:55

2nd period

  1. FLA
    backhandxG 0.34win prob +15 pts
    1-2
    0:43

3rd period

  1. WSH
    wristxG 0.23win prob +29 pts
    2-2
    8:14
  2. WSH
    tip-inxG 0.09win prob +34 pts
    3-2
    10:37
  3. WSH
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.45win prob +3 pts
    4-2
    19:11

Penalties

WSH 8 PIM·FLA 10 PIM

1st

  • 0:49FLARadko Gudas · High stickingdrawn by Tom Wilson2 min
  • 1:48FLAMacKenzie Weegar · Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  • 11:42FLABen Chiarot · Holdingdrawn by Conor Sheary2 min

2nd

  • 8:03WSHMartin Fehérváry · Holdingdrawn by Mason Marchment2 min
  • 13:26WSHAnthony Mantha · Slashingdrawn by Mason Marchment2 min
  • 13:26FLAMason Marchment · Unsportsmanlike conductdrawn by Anthony Mantha2 min
  • 15:51WSHJohan Larsson · Slashingdrawn by Mason Marchment2 min

3rd

  • 19:57FLAPatric Hornqvist · Cross checkingdrawn by Nick Jensen2 min
  • 19:57WSHNick Jensen · Cross checkingdrawn by Patric Hornqvist2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
FLA goalWSH goalFinal: FLA 0%

Biggest swing: T.J. Oshie, 3rd 10:37 — WSH 48% → 81%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
C. Giroux · Goal · xG 0.34A. Barkov · On goal · xG 0.22R. Lomberg · Missed · xG 0.12A. Duclair · Missed · xG 0.08J. Huberdeau · On goal · xG 0.07C. Verhaeghe · Missed · xG 0.07J. Huberdeau · On goal · xG 0.07M. Marchment · On goal · xG 0.07B. Chiarot · On goal · xG 0.06B. Chiarot · On goal · xG 0.06C. Verhaeghe · Missed · xG 0.04M. Weegar · On goal · xG 0.04J. Huberdeau · On goal · xG 0.04B. Chiarot · On goal · xG 0.04J. Huberdeau · Missed · xG 0.04B. Montour · On goal · xG 0.04E. Luostarinen · Missed · xG 0.04A. Barkov · On goal · xG 0.04A. Ekblad · On goal · xG 0.03J. Huberdeau · On goal · xG 0.03M. Weegar · On goal · xG 0.03C. Verhaeghe · Missed · xG 0.03A. Ekblad · On goal · xG 0.03A. Ekblad · Missed · xG 0.03E. Luostarinen · On goal · xG 0.02G. Forsling · Missed · xG 0.02C. Giroux · Missed · xG 0.02M. Marchment · On goal · xG 0.02G. Forsling · Missed · xG 0.02M. Marchment · On goal · xG 0.02S. Bennett · Goal · xG 0.02J. Huberdeau · On goal · xG 0.01S. Reinhart · On goal · xG 0.01G. Forsling · On goal · xG 0.01B. Chiarot · Missed · xG 0.01S. Bennett · On goal · xG 0.01A. Barkov · On goal · xG 0.01B. Chiarot · On goal · xG 0.01B. Chiarot · Missed · xG 0.01B. Montour · On goal · xG 0.01S. Bennett · Missed · xG 0.01B. Montour · On goal · xG 0.00P. Hornqvist · On goal · xG 0.00B. Chiarot · Missed · xG 0.00R. Gudas · On goal · xG 0.00B. Montour · On goal · xG 0.00B. Chiarot · On goal · xG 0.00
FLA2 G · 1.9 xG · 47 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

WSHvsFLA
3.63 G
All situations
2 G1.9
2.32 G
Even strength
2 G1.7
0.81 G
Power play
0 G0.3
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 97 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
WSH72%28%FLA

Flurry-adjusted xG 3.17 – 1.92

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

WSHvsFLA
38
Shots on goal
32
47%
Faceoffs
53%
1/3
Power play
0/2
8
Penalty minutes
10
43
Hits
56
12
Blocked shots
11
6
Giveaways
13
9
Takeaways
14

Box score

every player line
Washington Capitals skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
74J. CarlsonD000+220.08020—25:38
9D. OrlovD011+110.11420—23:31
3N. JensenD000-110.08212—21:24
77T. OshieR101+240.482005021:10
39A. ManthaR011050.351002—19:11
19N. BackstromC011+120.260101719:03
73C. ShearyL000-120.26300—18:29
20L. EllerC101050.612006718:12
42M. FehérváryD000000.00602—18:12
92E. KuznetsovC101040.420005517:57
8A. OvechkinL011040.14410—17:36
2J. SchultzD011000.00110—14:01
90M. JohanssonL000+110.18010—13:46
21G. HathawayR000010.01310—13:32
57T. van RiemsdykD000010.03120—13:24
26N. DowdC000010.012005008:44
22J. LarssonL000020.20202—08:36
43T. WilsonR101020.39100—01:31
Washington Capitals goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
41V. Vanecek(W)32302.9381.93-0.0760:00

Series

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).