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Carolina Hurricanes at New Jersey Devils

Final/OTTV BSSO, MSG·Prudential Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Carolina Hurricanes beat the New Jersey Devils 3-2 in overtime, Seth Jarvis scoring at 1:39. The Hurricanes came back from two goals down. The Devils led 1-0 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Seth Jarvis's goal at 1:39 of overtime, which took the Hurricanes' chances from 49% to 100%. Expected goals favored the Hurricanes, 2.6 to 1.6; shots on goal were CAR 29, NJD 19. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Hurricanes win a replay of these chances 68% of the time. Pyotr Kochetkov stopped 17 of 19 (.895); Jon Gillies stopped 26 of 29 (.897). Three stars: 1. Seth Jarvis (1 G), 2. Jon Gillies (26 saves, .897), 3. Nico Hischier (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    CAR
    S. Jarvis1 G
  2. ★★
    NJD
    J. Gillies26 saves, .897
  3. ★★★
    NJD
    N. Hischier1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdOTT
CARCAR09092912329
NJDNJD06151800219

Scoring

5 goals

2nd period

  1. NJD
    tip-inxG 0.13win prob +17 pts
    0-1
    15:43

3rd period

  1. NJD
    wristxG 0.01win prob +14 pts
    0-2
    8:30
  2. CAR
    Unassisted
    snapxG 0.01win prob +8 pts
    1-2
    15:24
  3. CAR
    J. Fast (20), T. DeAngelo (40)
    snapxG 0.10win prob +44 pts
    2-2
    18:04

Overtime

  1. CAR
    snapxG 0.17win prob +51 pts
    3-2
    1:39

Penalties

CAR 8 PIM·NJD 6 PIM

1st

  • 15:39CARVincent Trocheck · Trippingdrawn by Nikita Okhotiuk2 min

2nd

  • 6:50NJDP.K. Subban · Interferencedrawn by Vincent Trocheck2 min
  • 14:20CARserved by A. Svechnikov · Too many men on the ice2 min
  • 15:45NJDMichael McLeod · Delaying game face off violation2 min

3rd

  • 6:03CARMax Domi · Roughingdrawn by Nikita Okhotiuk2 min
  • 6:03NJDNikita Okhotiuk · Roughingdrawn by Max Domi2 min
  • 11:39CARIan Cole · Trippingdrawn by Pavel Zacha2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
NJD goalCAR goalFinal: NJD 0%

Biggest swing: Seth Jarvis, OT 1:39 — CAR 49% → 100%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
D. Mercer · Missed · xG 0.15J. Boqvist · On goal · xG 0.15Y. Sharangovich · Goal · xG 0.13D. Mercer · On goal · xG 0.12F. Zetterlund · On goal · xG 0.12J. Kuokkanen · On goal · xG 0.10Y. Sharangovich · Missed · xG 0.10N. Hischier · On goal · xG 0.10F. Zetterlund · On goal · xG 0.10P. Zacha · On goal · xG 0.09Y. Sharangovich · On goal · xG 0.08Y. Sharangovich · On goal · xG 0.07Y. Sharangovich · Missed · xG 0.06A. Johnsson · On goal · xG 0.06D. Mercer · On goal · xG 0.04D. Severson · On goal · xG 0.03D. Hamilton · On goal · xG 0.02D. Hamilton · On goal · xG 0.02P. Subban · Missed · xG 0.02J. Boqvist · Missed · xG 0.01N. Hischier · Goal · xG 0.01D. Hamilton · Missed · xG 0.01F. Zetterlund · Missed · xG 0.01D. Severson · On goal · xG 0.00Y. Sharangovich · On goal · xG 0.00D. Hamilton · On goal · xG 0.00R. Graves · Missed · xG 0.00
NJD2 G · 1.6 xG · 27 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

CARvsNJD
2.63 G
All situations
2 G1.6
2.13 G
Even strength
1 G1.2
0.40 G
Power play
1 G0.5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 72 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
CAR68%32%NJD

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.54 – 1.62

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

CARvsNJD
29
Shots on goal
19
53%
Faceoffs
47%
0/2
Power play
1/3
8
Penalty minutes
6
19
Hits
14
10
Blocked shots
15
5
Giveaways
9
9
Takeaways
3

Box score

every player line
Carolina Hurricanes skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
74J. SlavinD000+140.13230—27:12
77T. DeAngeloD022+230.26000—23:28
76B. SkjeiD101040.13120—22:24
22B. PesceD000020.14210—21:10
20S. AhoC000+110.061005719:41
37A. SvechnikovR000010.49200—17:08
24S. JarvisR101+110.17000—17:07
16V. TrocheckC000+110.061024116:52
86T. TeravainenC000-120.14000016:49
11J. StaalC000+100.012006716:18
88M. NecasC000000.00000015:56
21N. NiederreiterR101+140.6020010015:34
71J. FastR011+220.17100—15:01
13M. DomiC000000.000123312:32
28I. ColeD000000.00222—11:55
7B. SmithD000040.12110—11:20
48J. MartinookL000000.04200—09:37
78S. LorentzC000000.04000007:36
Carolina Hurricanes goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
52P. Kochetkov(W)19172.8951.63-0.3761:33

Season series

CAR leads 3-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).