Blues at Stars 4-1 — Recap, Win Probability & Shot Map

NHL scoreboard

St. Louis Blues

▸4

Dallas Stars

FinalTV BSSW, BSMW·American Airlines Center

Recap

written from the game data

The St. Louis Blues beat the Dallas Stars 4-1. The Stars scored first; the Blues answered. It was tied 1-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Justin Faulk's goal at 2:07 of the third period, which took the Blues' chances from 48% to 73%. Expected goals favored the Blues, 2.7 to 2.3; shots on goal were STL 29, DAL 34. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Blues win a replay of these chances 60% of the time. Charlie Lindgren stopped 33 of 34 (.971), 1.3 goals saved above expected; Jake Oettinger stopped 25 of 29 (.862), 1.3 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Charlie Lindgren (33 saves, .971), 2. Riley Damiani (1 G), 3. Justin Faulk (1 G).

Three stars

★
C. Lindgren33 saves, .971
★★
R. Damiani1 G
★★★
J. Faulk1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath

Goals and shots on goal by period
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	T
STL	010	19	310	429
DAL	010	112	012	134

Scoring

5 goals

2nd period

R. Damiani(1)
J. Klingberg (10), J. Robertson (13)
wristxG 0.06win prob +21 pts
0-1
15:57
C. Parayko(3)
V. Tarasenko (16), P. Buchnevich (13)
backhandxG 0.15win prob +21 pts
1-1
17:03

3rd period

J. Faulk(5)
Unassisted
wristxG 0.01win prob +25 pts
2-1
2:07
R. O'Reilly(5)PPG
V. Tarasenko (17), I. Barbashev (10)
wristxG 0.08win prob +11 pts
3-1
11:33
V. Tarasenko(9)PPG
I. Barbashev (11), P. Buchnevich (14)
wristxG 0.10
4-1
18:43

Penalties

2 PIM·

10 PIM

1st

2:10Tyler Seguin · Boardingdrawn by Oskar Sundqvist2 min
11:14Dakota Joshua · Roughingdrawn by Riley Damiani2 min

2nd

4:20Jacob Peterson · Hookingdrawn by Ivan Barbashev2 min

3rd

8:24Radek Faksa · High sticking double minordrawn by Pavel Buchnevich4 min
18:10Joe Pavelski · Trippingdrawn by Ryan O'Reilly2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game

Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number

goal

goalFinal: DAL

Biggest swing: Justin Faulk, 3rd 2:07 — STL 48% → 73%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG

1 G · 2.3 xG · 46 att

←

attacks

attacks →

4 G · 2.7 xG · 37 att DAL

1 G · 2.3 xG · 46 att

Tap a shot for who, when and how likely

GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

2.74 G
All situations: 1 G2.3; 2.22 G
Even strength: 1 G1.6; 0.42 G
Power play: 0 G0.6; 0.10 G
Shorthanded: 0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 83 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created

60%40%

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.72 – 2.16

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

29
Shots on goal: 34; 56%
Faceoffs: 44%; 2/5
Power play: 0/1; 2
Penalty minutes: 10; 25
Hits: 17; 11
Blocked shots: 14; 13
Giveaways: 9; 4
Takeaways: 9

Box score

every player line

St. Louis Blues skaters
Skater	G	A	P	+/-	SOG	ixG	Hit	Blk	PIM	FO%	TOI
55C. ParaykoD	1	0	1	0	5	0.33	3	3	0	—	25:13
72J. FaulkD	1	0	1	+1	2	0.04	2	0	0	—	22:55
47T. KrugD	0	0	0	+1	0	0.00	1	1	0	—	22:19
21T. BozakC	0	0	0	-1	1	0.08	0	1	0	57	19:25
77N. MikkolaD	0	0	0	0	1	0.03	1	0	0	—	19:14
90R. O'ReillyC	1	0	1	-1	5	0.83	0	1	0	71	19:12
49I. BarbashevL	0	2	2	0	0	0.13	2	0	0	35	18:51
89P. BuchnevichL	0	2	2	+1	2	0.09	0	0	0	—	18:34
91V. TarasenkoR	1	2	3	+1	4	0.31	2	0	0	100	17:23
70O. SundqvistC	0	0	0	+1	2	0.16	2	1	0	0	16:56
20B. SaadL	0	0	0	-1	0	0.08	1	0	0	—	16:25
26N. WalkerL	0	0	0	+1	2	0.07	2	2	0	—	15:17
6M. ScandellaD	0	0	0	0	1	0.15	0	1	0	—	14:35
22L. BrownC	0	0	0	0	1	0.15	0	0	0	0	14:31
41R. BortuzzoD	0	0	0	0	1	0.01	2	1	0	—	11:33
53M. PecaC	0	0	0	0	0	0.02	1	0	0	0	08:55
54D. JoshuaC	0	0	0	+2	0	0.15	4	0	2	67	08:23
65A. ToropchenkoR	0	0	0	0	2	0.14	2	0	0	—	08:19

St. Louis Blues goalies
Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	xGA	GSAx	TOI
39C. Lindgren(W)	34	33	1	.971	2.27	+1.27	60:00

Season series

STL leads 3-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).

St. Louis Blues at Dallas Stars

2nd period

3rd period

1st

2nd

3rd

Box score