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Blues at Wild
NHL

St. Louis Blues at Minnesota Wild

NHL scoreboard
St. Louis Blues
▸4
Minnesota Wild
3
FinalTV NBCSN·Xcel Energy Center

Recap

written from the game data

The St. Louis Blues beat the Minnesota Wild 4-3. The Blues came back from two goals down. The Wild led 3-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Robert Thomas's goal at 19:37 of the third period, which took the Blues' chances from 48% to 99%. Expected goals favored the Wild, 2.6 to 2.2; shots on goal were STL 32, MIN 29. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Wild win a replay of these chances 58% of the time. Jordan Binnington stopped 26 of 29 (.897); Cam Talbot stopped 28 of 32 (.875), 1.8 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Robert Thomas (1 G, 1 A), 2. Marcus Foligno (1 G, 1 A), 3. Mike Hoffman (2 G, 1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    STL
    R. Thomas1 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    MIN
    M. Foligno1 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    STL
    M. Hoffman2 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
STLSTL01317312432
MINMIN11021603329

Scoring

7 goals

1st period

  1. MIN
    J. Brodin(7)
    M. Foligno (12), J. Greenway (23)
    deflectedxG 0.06win prob +15 pts
    0-1
    17:47

2nd period

  1. MIN
    J. Eriksson Ek(16)
    J. Greenway (24)
    backhandxG 0.08win prob +15 pts
    0-2
    0:32
  2. STL
    M. Hoffman(15)PPG
    V. Tarasenko (10), D. Perron (32)
    wristxG 0.13win prob +12 pts
    1-2
    10:27
  3. MIN
    M. Foligno(10)
    M. Dumba (12)
    wristxG 0.07win prob +16 pts
    1-3
    11:29

3rd period

  1. STL
    M. Hoffman(16)PPG
    D. Perron (33), T. Krug (26)
    slapxG 0.08win prob +12 pts
    2-3
    3:49
  2. STL
    J. Kyrou(11)
    R. Thomas (8)
    wristxG 0.32win prob +28 pts
    3-3
    7:41
  3. STL
    R. Thomas(3)
    M. Hoffman (16), J. Kyrou (17)
    wristxG 0.18win prob +50 pts
    4-3
    19:37

Penalties

STL 2 PIM·MIN 4 PIM

2nd

  • 10:19MINKevin Fiala · Interferencedrawn by Robert Bortuzzo2 min
  • 15:15STLMarco Scandella · Hookingdrawn by Marcus Foligno2 min

3rd

  • 3:20MINMathew Dumba · Hookingdrawn by Jaden Schwartz2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
MIN goalSTL goalFinal: MIN 0%

Biggest swing: Robert Thomas, 3rd 19:37 — STL 48% → 99%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
R. Hartman · On goal · xG 0.30K. Fiala · Missed · xG 0.17K. Kaprizov · On goal · xG 0.15K. Fiala · On goal · xG 0.13Z. Parise · On goal · xG 0.12J. Eriksson Ek · On goal · xG 0.11K. Kaprizov · Missed · xG 0.10M. Zuccarello · Missed · xG 0.10J. Spurgeon · On goal · xG 0.09V. Rask · On goal · xG 0.09R. Hartman · On goal · xG 0.09J. Eriksson Ek · Goal · xG 0.08M. Foligno · Goal · xG 0.07K. Kaprizov · Missed · xG 0.07M. Foligno · Missed · xG 0.07R. Hartman · On goal · xG 0.07K. Kaprizov · Missed · xG 0.06K. Kaprizov · On goal · xG 0.06J. Brodin · Goal · xG 0.06J. Eriksson Ek · On goal · xG 0.05M. Dumba · On goal · xG 0.05K. Fiala · On goal · xG 0.05V. Rask · On goal · xG 0.04J. Greenway · Missed · xG 0.04J. Eriksson Ek · On goal · xG 0.04K. Fiala · On goal · xG 0.04K. Kaprizov · On goal · xG 0.04J. Greenway · On goal · xG 0.04K. Kaprizov · On goal · xG 0.04C. Soucy · Missed · xG 0.03J. Spurgeon · Missed · xG 0.03C. Soucy · Missed · xG 0.03J. Spurgeon · On goal · xG 0.03K. Kaprizov · Missed · xG 0.02R. Suter · On goal · xG 0.02M. Dumba · On goal · xG 0.02J. Brodin · Missed · xG 0.01C. Soucy · Missed · xG 0.01J. Brodin · On goal · xG 0.01M. Johansson · On goal · xG 0.01V. Rask · On goal · xG 0.01V. Rask · On goal · xG 0.01J. Spurgeon · Missed · xG 0.00
MIN3 G · 2.6 xG · 43 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

STLvsMIN
2.24 G
All situations
3 G2.6
1.92 G
Even strength
3 G2.6
0.22 G
Power play
0 G0.0
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 89 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
STL42%58%MIN

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.18 – 2.62

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

STLvsMIN
32
Shots on goal
29
52%
Faceoffs
48%
2/2
Power play
0/1
2
Penalty minutes
4
17
Hits
26
11
Blocked shots
12
6
Giveaways
8
9
Takeaways
7

Box score

every player line
St. Louis Blues skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
72J. FaulkD000-150.15010—29:19
6M. ScandellaD000-120.08122—22:29
47T. KrugD011020.13030—21:43
57D. PerronL022-110.06100—19:52
10B. SchennC000-200.10300019:45
90R. O'ReillyC000-220.101006219:35
21T. BozakC000-110.110106715:47
77N. MikkolaD000010.02410—15:47
41R. BortuzzoD000+110.02330—15:45
25J. KyrouR112+230.60000—15:11
46J. WalmanD000-130.09000—15:05
91V. TarasenkoR011-110.04100—14:05
17J. SchwartzL000-100.02100—13:44
68M. HoffmanC213+160.32000013:18
18R. ThomasC112+210.240001112:43
49I. BarbashevL000000.000006011:52
12Z. SanfordL000020.041003311:27
9S. BlaisL000010.08100—10:33
St. Louis Blues goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
50J. Binnington(W)29263.8972.64-0.3660:00

Season series

STL leads 6-2

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).