Blue Jackets at Lightning 3-1 — Recap, Win Probability & Shot Map

NHL scoreboard

Columbus Blue Jackets

▸3

Tampa Bay Lightning

FinalTV FS-O, SUN·Amalie Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Columbus Blue Jackets beat the Tampa Bay Lightning 3-1. The Blue Jackets scored first and never trailed. The Blue Jackets led 2-0 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Oliver Bjorkstrand's goal at 10:49 of the second period, which took the Blue Jackets' chances from 47% to 66%. Expected goals were close — CBJ 2.4, TBL 2.4; shots on goal were CBJ 21, TBL 38. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Lightning win a replay of these chances 68% of the time. Elvis Merzlikins stopped 37 of 38 (.974), 1.4 goals saved above expected; Curtis McElhinney stopped 18 of 20 (.900), 0.5 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Elvis Merzlikins (37 saves, .974), 2. Victor Hedman, 3. Zach Werenski (1 A).

Three stars

★
E. Merzlikins37 saves, .974
★★
V. Hedman
★★★
Z. Werenski1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath

Goals and shots on goal by period
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	T
CBJ	04	211	16	321
TBL	07	020	111	138

Scoring

4 goals

2nd period

O. Bjorkstrand(13)
Z. Werenski (11), J. Roslovic (16)
wristxG 0.11win prob +19 pts
1-0
10:49
D. Savard(1)
A. Texier (7), N. Foligno (8)
snapxG 0.14win prob +18 pts
2-0
19:28

3rd period

M. Joseph(10)
L. Schenn (2), A. Borgman (1)
tip-inxG 0.08win prob +17 pts
2-1
4:12
C. Atkinson(13)EN
N. Foligno (9)
wristxG 0.94win prob +5 pts
3-1
18:29

Penalties

2 PIM·

0 PIM

2nd

2:15Vladislav Gavrikov · Trippingdrawn by Jan Rutta2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game

Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number

goal

goalFinal: TBL

Biggest swing: Oliver Bjorkstrand, 2nd 10:49 — CBJ 47% → 66%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG

1 G · 2.4 xG · 48 att

←

attacks

attacks →

3 G · 2.4 xG · 30 att TBL

1 G · 2.4 xG · 48 att

Tap a shot for who, when and how likely

GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

2.42 G
All situations: 1 G2.4; 1.32 G
Even strength: 1 G2.1; 0.10 G
Power play: 0 G0.3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 78 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created

32%68%

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.47 – 2.38

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

21
Shots on goal: 38; 46%
Faceoffs: 54%; 0/0
Power play: 0/1; 2
Penalty minutes: 0; 23
Hits: 27; 13
Blocked shots: 6; 0
Giveaways: 2; 0
Takeaways: 4

Box score

every player line

Columbus Blue Jackets skaters
Skater	G	A	P	+/-	SOG	ixG	Hit	Blk	PIM	FO%	TOI
58D. SavardD	1	0	1	+1	1	0.14	0	3	0	—	22:44
44V. GavrikovD	0	0	0	+1	1	0.01	1	1	2	—	22:38
3S. JonesD	0	0	0	+1	1	0.03	1	2	0	—	22:23
8Z. WerenskiD	0	1	1	+1	4	0.28	0	0	0	—	22:18
38B. JennerC	0	0	0	+1	1	0.13	3	1	0	48	21:07
42A. TexierL	0	1	1	0	2	0.17	2	1	0	—	20:44
13C. AtkinsonR	1	0	1	+2	2	1.00	2	0	0	—	20:16
71N. FolignoL	0	2	2	+1	1	0.10	0	0	0	67	17:56
28O. BjorkstrandR	1	0	1	+1	1	0.11	1	1	0	—	17:29
96J. RoslovicC	0	1	1	+1	0	0.02	3	0	0	33	16:52
43M. LehtonenD	0	0	0	0	2	0.01	2	1	0	—	16:07
46D. KukanD	0	0	0	0	1	0.02	2	1	0	—	14:08
29P. LaineL	0	0	0	+1	0	0.14	0	0	0	—	13:12
16M. DomiC	0	0	0	0	1	0.04	0	0	0	0	12:24
11K. StenlundC	0	0	0	0	0	0.03	1	0	0	82	11:10
50E. RobinsonL	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	2	0	0	—	10:02
19L. FoudyC	0	0	0	0	2	0.05	2	0	0	0	09:18
26Z. DalpeC	0	0	0	0	1	0.14	1	2	0	17	07:42

Columbus Blue Jackets goalies
Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	xGA	GSAx	TOI
90E. Merzlikins(W)	38	37	1	.974	2.43	+1.43	59:29

Season series

TBL leads 5-3

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).

Columbus Blue Jackets at Tampa Bay Lightning

2nd period

3rd period

2nd

Box score