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Flyers at Sabres
NHL

Philadelphia Flyers at Buffalo Sabres

NHL scoreboard
Philadelphia Flyers
1
Buffalo Sabres
▸6
FinalTV NBCSN, NBCSP·KeyBank Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Buffalo Sabres beat the Philadelphia Flyers 6-1. The Sabres scored first and never trailed. The Sabres led 4-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Steven Fogarty's goal at 9:42 of the second period, which took the Sabres' chances from 71% to 87%. Expected goals were close — PHI 2.6, BUF 2.7; shots on goal were PHI 32, BUF 27. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Flyers win a replay of these chances 56% of the time. Brian Elliott stopped 12 of 16 (.750), 2.6 goals below expected; Linus Ullmark stopped 31 of 32 (.969), 1.6 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Steven Fogarty (1 G, 1 A), 2. Brandon Montour (2 G), 3. Jacob Bryson (2 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    BUF
    S. Fogarty1 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    BUF
    B. Montour2 G
  3. ★★★
    BUF
    J. Bryson2 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
PHIPHI07114011132
BUFBUF2102829627

Scoring

7 goals

1st period

  1. BUF
    S. Reinhart(13)
    K. Okposo (6), R. Ristolainen (6)
    wristxG 0.07win prob +13 pts
    0-1
    9:32
  2. BUF
    C. Lazar(5)
    R. Sheahan (5)
    wristxG 0.18win prob +14 pts
    0-2
    11:59

2nd period

  1. PHI
    I. Provorov(6)
    S. Couturier (17), J. Voracek (22)
    slapxG 0.02win prob +15 pts
    1-2
    3:50
  2. BUF
    S. Fogarty(1)
    R. Ristolainen (7), J. Bryson (2)
    wristxG 0.11win prob +16 pts
    1-3
    9:42
  3. BUF
    C. Mittelstadt(2)
    S. Fogarty (2), J. Bryson (3)
    wristxG 0.22win prob +8 pts
    1-4
    15:39

3rd period

  1. BUF
    B. Montour(3)EN
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.36
    1-5
    14:53
  2. BUF
    B. Montour(4)SHG
    K. Okposo (7)
    backhandxG 0.07
    1-6
    15:30

Penalties

PHI 0 PIM·BUF 6 PIM

2nd

  • 0:54BUFTage Thompson · High stickingdrawn by Travis Sanheim2 min
  • 16:51BUFHenri Jokiharju · Delaying game puck over glass2 min

3rd

  • 13:38BUFTage Thompson · Trippingdrawn by Travis Sanheim2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
BUF goalPHI goalFinal: BUF 100%

Biggest swing: Steven Fogarty, 2nd 9:42 — BUF 71% → 87%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
B. Montour · Goal · xG 0.36C. Mittelstadt · Goal · xG 0.22C. Lazar · Goal · xG 0.18B. Montour · On goal · xG 0.16T. Rieder · Missed · xG 0.15J. Skinner · On goal · xG 0.15T. Thompson · On goal · xG 0.14T. Thompson · Missed · xG 0.13V. Olofsson · On goal · xG 0.13T. Thompson · Missed · xG 0.12S. Fogarty · Goal · xG 0.11R. Dahlin · Missed · xG 0.09V. Olofsson · Missed · xG 0.08S. Reinhart · On goal · xG 0.08S. Fogarty · Missed · xG 0.07C. Eakin · Missed · xG 0.07B. Montour · Goal · xG 0.07S. Reinhart · Goal · xG 0.07S. Fogarty · Missed · xG 0.04T. Hall · On goal · xG 0.04J. Skinner · On goal · xG 0.04R. Ristolainen · On goal · xG 0.02R. Dahlin · On goal · xG 0.02R. Dahlin · On goal · xG 0.02R. Dahlin · Missed · xG 0.02R. Ristolainen · On goal · xG 0.02B. Montour · On goal · xG 0.01C. Miller · On goal · xG 0.01J. Skinner · On goal · xG 0.01S. Reinhart · On goal · xG 0.01T. Thompson · On goal · xG 0.01R. Ristolainen · On goal · xG 0.01C. Mittelstadt · On goal · xG 0.01V. Olofsson · On goal · xG 0.01H. Jokiharju · Missed · xG 0.01R. Sheahan · On goal · xG 0.00R. Ristolainen · On goal · xG 0.00
BUF6 G · 2.7 xG · 37 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

PHIvsBUF
2.61 G
All situations
5 G2.7
2.11 G
Even strength
4 G2.1
0.50 G
Power play
0 G0.0
0.00 G
Shorthanded
1 G0.2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 85 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
PHI56%44%BUF

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.58 – 2.30

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

PHIvsBUF
32
Shots on goal
27
58%
Faceoffs
42%
0/3
Power play
0/0
0
Penalty minutes
6
15
Hits
13
6
Blocked shots
13
1
Giveaways
3
0
Takeaways
13

Box score

every player line
Philadelphia Flyers skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
9I. ProvorovD101-150.10000—23:58
6T. SanheimD000-220.10120—23:16
5P. MyersD000-100.01110—22:48
14S. CouturierC011-140.310004821:35
28C. GirouxR000-140.251007820:56
93J. VoracekR011-120.11000—20:16
56E. GustafssonD000-220.06100—18:41
25J. van RiemsdykL000-120.4010010017:56
61J. BraunD000-310.01010—17:12
11T. KonecnyR000-220.2620010017:00
13K. HayesR000-210.740007315:47
86J. FarabeeL000-200.00210—15:05
21S. LaughtonC000-140.170004414:41
12M. RafflL000-220.06200—12:51
62N. Aube-KubelR000010.04310—10:57
55S. MorinL000-100.00000—10:44
81C. TwarynskiL000-100.00100—08:57
82C. BunnamanC000-200.00000007:43
Philadelphia Flyers goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
37B. Elliott(L)16124.7501.42-2.5835:29
34A. Lyon1091.9000.93-0.0724:08

Season series

PHI leads 5-3

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).