Flyers at Sabres 3-0 — Recap, Win Probability & Shot Map

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Philadelphia Flyers

▸3

Buffalo Sabres

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Recap

written from the game data

The Philadelphia Flyers beat the Buffalo Sabres 3-0. The Flyers scored first and never trailed. The Flyers led 3-0 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Michael Raffl's goal at 1:37 of the second period, which took the Flyers' chances from 63% to 79%. Expected goals favored the Flyers, 3.4 to 2.2; shots on goal were PHI 38, BUF 28. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Flyers win a replay of these chances 69% of the time. Carter Hart stopped 28 of 28 (1.000), 2.2 goals saved above expected; Jonas Johansson stopped 35 of 38 (.921). Three stars: 1. James van Riemsdyk (1 G, 1 A), 2. Joel Farabee (2 A), 3. Carter Hart (28 saves, 1.000).

Three stars

★
J. van Riemsdyk1 G, 1 A
★★
J. Farabee2 A
★★★
C. Hart28 saves, 1.000

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath

Goals and shots on goal by period
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	T
PHI	013	321	04	338
BUF	07	012	09	028

Scoring

3 goals

2nd period

S. Couturier(5)
J. Farabee (8), J. van Riemsdyk (15)
wristxG 0.13win prob +16 pts
1-0
0:22
M. Raffl(3)
R. Hagg (1), P. Myers (5)
deflectedxG 0.05win prob +17 pts
2-0
1:37
J. van Riemsdyk(10)
J. Farabee (9), I. Provorov (7)
deflectedxG 0.06win prob +9 pts
3-0
15:23

Penalties

6 PIM·

4 PIM

1st

1:14Justin Braun · Delaying game puck over glass2 min
12:59Rasmus Ristolainen · Slashingdrawn by Oskar Lindblom2 min

2nd

6:51Rasmus Dahlin · Hookingdrawn by Nolan Patrick2 min
19:13Jakub Voracek · Hookingdrawn by Brandon Davidson2 min

3rd

5:34Kevin Hayes · Trippingdrawn by Rasmus Dahlin2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game

Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number

goal

goalFinal: BUF

Biggest swing: Michael Raffl, 2nd 1:37 — PHI 63% → 79%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG

0 G · 2.2 xG · 40 att

←

attacks

attacks →

3 G · 3.4 xG · 48 att BUF

0 G · 2.2 xG · 40 att

Tap a shot for who, when and how likely

GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

3.43 G
All situations: 0 G2.2; 2.83 G
Even strength: 0 G1.5; 0.60 G
Power play: 0 G0.7; 0.00 G
Shorthanded: 0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 88 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created

69%31%

Flurry-adjusted xG 3.34 – 2.20

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

38
Shots on goal: 28; 60%
Faceoffs: 40%; 0/2
Power play: 0/3; 6
Penalty minutes: 4; 13
Hits: 19; 10
Blocked shots: 5; 4
Giveaways: 7; 5
Takeaways: 3

Box score

every player line

Philadelphia Flyers skaters
Skater	G	A	P	+/-	SOG	ixG	Hit	Blk	PIM	FO%	TOI
9I. ProvorovD	0	1	1	+2	4	0.27	3	3	0	—	24:57
6T. SanheimD	0	0	0	0	1	0.01	0	1	0	—	21:42
53S. GostisbehereD	0	0	0	+2	1	0.03	0	0	0	—	19:31
61J. BraunD	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	1	0	2	—	19:14
28C. GirouxR	0	0	0	0	1	0.40	0	0	0	78	17:21
5P. MyersD	0	1	1	+1	4	0.15	1	1	0	—	17:03
13K. HayesR	0	0	0	0	3	0.46	0	0	2	20	16:43
93J. VoracekR	0	0	0	0	4	0.29	1	0	2	100	16:29
86J. FarabeeL	0	2	2	+2	4	0.27	0	0	0	—	16:02
14S. CouturierC	1	0	1	+2	4	0.30	0	2	0	57	15:57
8R. HaggD	0	1	1	+1	2	0.13	2	2	0	—	14:54
21S. LaughtonC	0	0	0	0	1	0.21	3	0	0	80	14:52
25J. van RiemsdykL	1	1	2	+2	4	0.46	0	0	0	—	14:32
19N. PatrickC	0	0	0	0	0	0.10	1	0	0	100	13:30
12M. RafflL	1	0	1	+1	1	0.05	0	1	0	50	13:05
23O. LindblomL	0	0	0	0	2	0.28	0	0	0	—	12:58
62N. Aube-KubelR	0	0	0	+1	1	0.04	0	0	0	—	12:46
82C. BunnamanC	0	0	0	+1	1	0.02	1	0	0	40	12:24

Philadelphia Flyers goalies
Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	xGA	GSAx	TOI
79C. Hart(W)	28	28	0	1.000	2.22	+2.22	60:00

Season series

PHI leads 5-3

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).

Philadelphia Flyers at Buffalo Sabres

2nd period

1st

2nd

3rd

Box score