Flyers at Sabres 3-0 — Recap, Win Probability & Shot Map

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Philadelphia Flyers

▸3

Buffalo Sabres

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Recap

written from the game data

The Philadelphia Flyers beat the Buffalo Sabres 3-0. The Flyers scored first and never trailed. The Flyers led 3-0 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Shayne Gostisbehere's goal at 14:33 of the second period, which took the Flyers' chances from 68% to 86%. Expected goals favored the Flyers, 3.3 to 2.7; shots on goal were PHI 39, BUF 23. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Flyers win a replay of these chances 59% of the time. Brian Elliott stopped 23 of 23 (1.000), 2.7 goals saved above expected; Carter Hutton stopped 36 of 39 (.923). Three stars: 1. Sean Couturier (1 G, 1 A), 2. Shayne Gostisbehere (1 G), 3. Scott Laughton (1 G).

Three stars

★
S. Couturier1 G, 1 A
★★
S. Gostisbehere1 G
★★★
S. Laughton1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath

Goals and shots on goal by period
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	T
PHI	111	215	013	339
BUF	06	08	09	023

Scoring

3 goals

1st period

S. Couturier(4)
T. Sanheim (5)
wristxG 0.17win prob +14 pts
1-0
14:22

2nd period

S. Gostisbehere(2)
J. van Riemsdyk (14), S. Couturier (6)
wristxG 0.08win prob +18 pts
2-0
14:33
S. Laughton(5)
O. Lindblom (3), J. Voracek (10)
backhandxG 0.17win prob +9 pts
3-0
18:54

Penalties

6 PIM·

6 PIM

1st

3:08Sam Reinhart · Holdingdrawn by Claude Giroux2 min
6:29Joel Farabee · Slashingdrawn by Taylor Hall2 min
15:06Jacob Bryson · High stickingdrawn by Kevin Hayes2 min

2nd

10:53James van Riemsdyk · Trippingdrawn by Rasmus Ristolainen2 min

3rd

10:31Jeff Skinner · Hookingdrawn by Ivan Provorov2 min
19:25Robert Hagg · Holdingdrawn by Taylor Hall2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game

Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number

goal

goalFinal: BUF

Biggest swing: Shayne Gostisbehere, 2nd 14:33 — PHI 68% → 86%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG

0 G · 2.7 xG · 37 att

←

attacks

attacks →

3 G · 3.3 xG · 47 att BUF

0 G · 2.7 xG · 37 att

Tap a shot for who, when and how likely

GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

3.33 G
All situations: 0 G2.7; 2.83 G
Even strength: 0 G2.3; 0.50 G
Power play: 0 G0.4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 84 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created

59%41%

Flurry-adjusted xG 3.24 – 2.68

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

39
Shots on goal: 23; 62%
Faceoffs: 38%; 0/3
Power play: 0/3; 6
Penalty minutes: 6; 12
Hits: 13; 7
Blocked shots: 12; 9
Giveaways: 7; 4
Takeaways: 6

Box score

every player line

Philadelphia Flyers skaters
Skater	G	A	P	+/-	SOG	ixG	Hit	Blk	PIM	FO%	TOI
9I. ProvorovD	0	0	0	+1	1	0.20	1	2	0	—	24:57
6T. SanheimD	0	1	1	+2	4	0.04	0	0	0	—	21:42
61J. BraunD	0	0	0	+2	0	0.00	2	0	0	—	21:20
53S. GostisbehereD	1	0	1	+1	6	0.62	0	1	0	—	20:10
28C. GirouxR	0	0	0	+1	4	0.32	0	0	0	72	18:10
13K. HayesR	0	0	0	0	2	0.07	1	0	0	71	18:01
25J. van RiemsdykL	0	1	1	+2	2	0.09	0	0	2	—	17:21
86J. FarabeeL	0	0	0	+1	3	0.27	0	0	2	—	16:37
14S. CouturierC	1	1	2	+2	5	0.70	0	0	0	60	16:31
93J. VoracekR	0	1	1	+1	2	0.29	0	2	0	—	16:17
8R. HaggD	0	0	0	0	1	0.02	1	0	2	—	14:49
19N. PatrickC	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0	0	0	50	14:37
21S. LaughtonC	1	0	1	+1	4	0.32	3	0	0	75	14:19
56E. GustafssonD	0	0	0	0	0	0.01	0	0	0	—	13:56
23O. LindblomL	0	1	1	+1	1	0.00	0	0	0	—	13:23
82C. BunnamanC	0	0	0	0	2	0.09	1	1	0	44	11:52
12M. RafflL	0	0	0	0	1	0.06	0	1	0	—	11:23
62N. Aube-KubelR	0	0	0	0	1	0.19	3	0	0	—	10:03

Philadelphia Flyers goalies
Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	xGA	GSAx	TOI
37B. Elliott(W)	23	23	0	1.000	2.69	+2.69	59:57

Season series

PHI leads 5-3

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).

Philadelphia Flyers at Buffalo Sabres

1st period

2nd period

1st

2nd

3rd

Box score