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Panthers at Predators
NHL

Florida Panthers at Nashville Predators

NHL scoreboard
Florida Panthers
▸5
Nashville Predators
4
FinalTV FS-F, FS-TN·Bridgestone Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Florida Panthers beat the Nashville Predators 5-4. The Panthers scored first and never trailed. The Panthers led 4-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Mason Marchment's goal at 9:01 of the first period, which took the Panthers' chances from 59% to 75%. Expected goals were close — FLA 3.0, NSH 2.9; shots on goal were FLA 38, NSH 35. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Panthers win a replay of these chances 50% of the time. Sergei Bobrovsky stopped 31 of 35 (.886), 1.1 goals below expected; Pekka Rinne stopped 33 of 38 (.868), 2.0 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Aaron Ekblad (2 G, 2 A), 2. Aleksander Barkov (3 A), 3. Mattias Ekholm (1 G, 1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    FLA
    A. Ekblad2 G, 2 A
  2. ★★
    FLA
    A. Barkov3 A
  3. ★★★
    NSH
    M. Ekholm1 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
FLAFLA21721318538
NSHNSH010215210435

Scoring

9 goals

1st period

  1. FLA
    C. Verhaeghe(8)
    A. Barkov (15), A. Ekblad (6)
    wristxG 0.09win prob +12 pts
    1-0
    6:29
  2. FLA
    M. Marchment(1)
    A. Ekblad (7)
    wristxG 0.04win prob +15 pts
    2-0
    9:01

2nd period

  1. FLA
    J. Huberdeau(9)
    P. Hornqvist (10)
    wristxG 0.26win prob +11 pts
    3-0
    0:59
  2. NSH
    M. Ekholm(4)
    V. Arvidsson (7), R. Josi (12)
    slapxG 0.03win prob +9 pts
    3-1
    12:23
  3. FLA
    A. Ekblad(7)PPG
    A. Barkov (16), J. Huberdeau (17)
    wristxG 0.08win prob +7 pts
    4-1
    18:44
  4. NSH
    F. Forsberg(10)
    V. Arvidsson (8), M. Ekholm (5)
    deflectedxG 0.11win prob +8 pts
    4-2
    19:34

3rd period

  1. FLA
    A. Ekblad(8)PPG
    A. Barkov (17), K. Yandle (11)
    wristxG 0.06win prob +3 pts
    5-2
    9:07
  2. NSH
    C. Sissons(4)
    B. Richardson (2), F. Forsberg (11)
    wristxG 0.20win prob +2 pts
    5-3
    12:40
  3. NSH
    R. Johansen(1)
    V. Arvidsson (9), F. Forsberg (12)
    wristxG 0.22win prob +3 pts
    5-4
    18:47

Penalties

FLA 4 PIM·NSH 8 PIM

2nd

  • 6:46FLAJuho Lammikko · Slashingdrawn by Colton Sissons2 min
  • 7:01FLAAlexander Wennberg · Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  • 15:27NSHRoman Josi · Cross checkingdrawn by Vinnie Hinostroza2 min
  • 17:30NSHColton Sissons · Hookingdrawn by Mason Marchment2 min

3rd

  • 8:25NSHMark Borowiecki · Interferencedrawn by Jonathan Huberdeau2 min
  • 14:30NSHRoman Josi · Slashingdrawn by Radko Gudas2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
NSH goalFLA goalFinal: NSH 0%

Biggest swing: Mason Marchment, 1st 9:01 — FLA 59% → 75%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
R. Johansen · Goal · xG 0.22C. Sissons · Goal · xG 0.20E. Tolvanen · On goal · xG 0.14M. Duchene · On goal · xG 0.14N. Cousins · On goal · xG 0.14C. Sissons · Missed · xG 0.13R. Johansen · On goal · xG 0.12F. Forsberg · Goal · xG 0.11V. Arvidsson · Missed · xG 0.11V. Arvidsson · On goal · xG 0.09E. Tolvanen · On goal · xG 0.09R. Grimaldi · On goal · xG 0.08R. Johansen · Missed · xG 0.08F. Forsberg · On goal · xG 0.08M. Granlund · Missed · xG 0.08M. Duchene · Missed · xG 0.06V. Arvidsson · On goal · xG 0.06R. Johansen · On goal · xG 0.06R. Josi · Missed · xG 0.06R. Grimaldi · On goal · xG 0.05R. Grimaldi · Missed · xG 0.05N. Cousins · On goal · xG 0.05M. Duchene · Missed · xG 0.04B. Richardson · On goal · xG 0.04B. Richardson · On goal · xG 0.04F. Forsberg · On goal · xG 0.04R. Josi · On goal · xG 0.04M. Duchene · On goal · xG 0.04F. Forsberg · On goal · xG 0.03F. Forsberg · On goal · xG 0.03M. Ekholm · On goal · xG 0.03E. Haula · On goal · xG 0.03M. Ekholm · Goal · xG 0.03M. Ekholm · Missed · xG 0.03M. Ekholm · On goal · xG 0.03C. Jarnkrok · On goal · xG 0.03M. Duchene · On goal · xG 0.02F. Forsberg · Missed · xG 0.02V. Arvidsson · On goal · xG 0.02R. Josi · Missed · xG 0.02M. Ekholm · Missed · xG 0.02V. Arvidsson · Missed · xG 0.02M. Borowiecki · Missed · xG 0.02V. Arvidsson · Missed · xG 0.02M. Duchene · On goal · xG 0.01N. Cousins · On goal · xG 0.01N. Cousins · On goal · xG 0.01V. Arvidsson · On goal · xG 0.01M. Borowiecki · On goal · xG 0.01M. Ekholm · On goal · xG 0.01E. Tolvanen · Missed · xG 0.01
NSH4 G · 2.9 xG · 51 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

FLAvsNSH
3.05 G
All situations
4 G2.9
2.43 G
Even strength
4 G2.2
0.62 G
Power play
0 G0.8

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 99 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
FLA50%50%NSH

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.92 – 2.91

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

FLAvsNSH
38
Shots on goal
35
36%
Faceoffs
64%
2/4
Power play
0/2
4
Penalty minutes
8
9
Hits
10
14
Blocked shots
12
11
Giveaways
12
3
Takeaways
5

Box score

every player line
Florida Panthers skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
5A. EkbladD224060.62000—24:45
16A. BarkovC033040.270204022:51
7R. GudasD000030.07400—21:53
52M. WeegarD000+130.05230—21:20
42G. ForslingD000-100.00030—20:53
23C. VerhaegheC101030.24000019:30
11J. HuberdeauL112+130.35110—18:37
77F. VatranoR000050.33010—18:25
3K. YandleD011-110.05000—18:20
70P. HornqvistR011+140.38100—17:35
21A. WennbergC000+110.100124015:18
55N. AcciariC000-110.020004414:42
27E. LuostarinenC000-220.220001713:36
19M. MarchmentL101-220.12010—13:23
6A. StralmanD000-100.02020—11:52
94R. LombergL000000.13100—08:06
83J. LammikkoC000000.000024407:59
13V. HinostrozaC000-100.00000006:55
Florida Panthers goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
72S. Bobrovsky(W)35314.8862.93-1.0760:00

Season series

FLA leads 5-3

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).