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Predators at Panthers
NHL

Nashville Predators at Florida Panthers

NHL scoreboard
Nashville Predators
▸6
Florida Panthers
5
Final/OTTV FS-F, FS-TN·BB&T Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Nashville Predators beat the Florida Panthers 6-5 in overtime, Filip Forsberg scoring at 4:00. The Predators came back from two goals down. The Panthers led 5-3 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Filip Forsberg's goal at 4:00 of overtime, which took the Predators' chances from 49% to 100%. Expected goals were close — NSH 2.9, FLA 2.8; shots on goal were NSH 41, FLA 36. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Predators win a replay of these chances 52% of the time. Juuse Saros stopped 19 of 24 (.792), 2.9 goals below expected; Sergei Bobrovsky stopped 35 of 41 (.854), 3.1 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Filip Forsberg (2 G, 3 A), 2. Jonathan Huberdeau (3 G, 2 A), 3. Matt Duchene (2 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    NSH
    F. Forsberg2 G, 3 A
  2. ★★
    FLA
    J. Huberdeau3 G, 2 A
  3. ★★★
    NSH
    M. Duchene2 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdOTT
NSHNSH21411021611641
FLAFLA21431001101536

Scoring

11 goals

1st period

  1. FLA
    J. Huberdeau(2)
    Unassisted
    backhandxG 0.19win prob +11 pts
    0-1
    1:28
  2. NSH
    F. Forsberg(5)PPG
    R. Ellis (3), R. Johansen (4)
    wristxG 0.05win prob +12 pts
    1-1
    9:02
  3. FLA
    J. Huberdeau(3)
    M. Nutivaara (3), P. Hornqvist (3)
    slapxG 0.23win prob +13 pts
    1-2
    10:09
  4. NSH
    C. Jarnkrok(2)
    F. Forsberg (3)
    wristxG 0.12win prob +14 pts
    2-2
    15:48

2nd period

  1. FLA
    A. Ekblad(3)PPG
    A. Barkov (6), J. Huberdeau (7)
    wristxG 0.09win prob +12 pts
    2-3
    0:54
  2. NSH
    M. Duchene(1)
    F. Forsberg (4), M. Granlund (3)
    wristxG 0.21win prob +17 pts
    3-3
    6:50
  3. FLA
    A. Barkov(3)PPG
    J. Huberdeau (8), K. Yandle (5)
    snapxG 0.12win prob +13 pts
    3-4
    8:01
  4. FLA
    J. Huberdeau(4)
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.06win prob +16 pts
    3-5
    15:54

3rd period

  1. NSH
    R. Josi(2)
    M. Ekholm (3), F. Forsberg (5)
    slapxG 0.05win prob +4 pts
    4-5
    17:54
  2. NSH
    M. Duchene(2)PPG
    N. Cousins (4), E. Haula (4)
    tip-inxG 0.16win prob +42 pts
    5-5
    19:03

Overtime

  1. NSH
    F. Forsberg(6)
    V. Arvidsson (5)
    wristxG 0.26win prob +51 pts
    6-5
    4:00

Penalties

NSH 8 PIM·FLA 8 PIM

1st

  • 7:33FLAAleksi Heponiemi · Hookingdrawn by Nick Cousins2 min
  • 17:09FLAEetu Luostarinen · Hookingdrawn by Matt Duchene2 min
  • 19:36NSHDante Fabbro · Interferencedrawn by Carter Verhaeghe2 min

2nd

  • 3:02FLAKeith Yandle · Slashingdrawn by Roman Josi2 min
  • 7:53NSHColton Sissons · Interferencedrawn by MacKenzie Weegar2 min
  • 8:07NSHRocco Grimaldi · Interferencedrawn by Juho Lammikko2 min
  • 10:21NSHViktor Arvidsson · Interferencedrawn by Eetu Luostarinen2 min

3rd

  • 17:54FLAserved by F. Vatrano · Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
FLA goalNSH goalFinal: FLA 0%

Biggest swing: Filip Forsberg, OT 4:00 — NSH 49% → 100%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
J. Huberdeau · Goal · xG 0.23J. Huberdeau · Goal · xG 0.19F. Vatrano · On goal · xG 0.14C. Verhaeghe · Missed · xG 0.13A. Duclair · On goal · xG 0.13R. Gudas · On goal · xG 0.12P. Hornqvist · On goal · xG 0.12A. Barkov · Goal · xG 0.12A. Wennberg · Missed · xG 0.11N. Acciari · On goal · xG 0.10A. Ekblad · Goal · xG 0.09A. Duclair · On goal · xG 0.08A. Stralman · On goal · xG 0.08A. Wennberg · On goal · xG 0.08A. Duclair · On goal · xG 0.08J. Huberdeau · Missed · xG 0.07M. Weegar · Missed · xG 0.07P. Hornqvist · On goal · xG 0.07J. Huberdeau · Goal · xG 0.06M. Weegar · On goal · xG 0.06R. Gudas · On goal · xG 0.05A. Barkov · Missed · xG 0.05A. Ekblad · Missed · xG 0.05F. Vatrano · On goal · xG 0.04P. Hornqvist · Missed · xG 0.04P. Hornqvist · On goal · xG 0.04P. Hornqvist · On goal · xG 0.03E. Luostarinen · On goal · xG 0.03P. Hornqvist · On goal · xG 0.03A. Duclair · On goal · xG 0.03F. Vatrano · On goal · xG 0.03A. Barkov · On goal · xG 0.03A. Ekblad · On goal · xG 0.02F. Vatrano · On goal · xG 0.02A. Barkov · On goal · xG 0.02K. Yandle · Missed · xG 0.02A. Ekblad · On goal · xG 0.02P. Hornqvist · On goal · xG 0.02K. Yandle · On goal · xG 0.02F. Vatrano · On goal · xG 0.02A. Barkov · Missed · xG 0.01P. Hornqvist · Missed · xG 0.01K. Yandle · Missed · xG 0.01R. Gudas · Missed · xG 0.01J. Lammikko · On goal · xG 0.01A. Wennberg · On goal · xG 0.00R. Gudas · On goal · xG 0.00F. Vatrano · On goal · xG 0.00
FLA5 G · 2.8 xG · 48 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

NSHvsFLA
2.96 G
All situations
5 G2.8
1.54 G
Even strength
3 G2.4
1.52 G
Power play
2 G0.4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 104 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
NSH52%48%FLA

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.89 – 2.78

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

NSHvsFLA
41
Shots on goal
36
61%
Faceoffs
39%
2/4
Power play
2/4
8
Penalty minutes
8
20
Hits
21
10
Blocked shots
14
9
Giveaways
7
8
Takeaways
8

Box score

every player line
Nashville Predators skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
4R. EllisD011-120.07010—25:40
59R. JosiD101+130.13150—25:07
14M. EkholmD011080.28100—24:11
64M. GranlundC011030.161006722:59
9F. ForsbergL235+280.7200010020:44
95M. DucheneC202040.453005419:16
57D. FabbroD000-120.05122—18:30
33V. ArvidssonL011+220.13002—17:48
10C. SissonsC000+100.002025617:23
19C. JarnkrokC101+120.220006016:04
21N. CousinsC011030.5630010015:34
24J. TinordiD000+100.00110—14:59
56E. HaulaL011-110.061006713:45
5M. BenningD000+110.04110—13:37
28E. TolvanenR000-100.00200—12:17
13Y. TreninC000020.07200011:21
92R. JohansenC011000.000006211:09
23R. GrimaldiR000-100.00102—08:03
Nashville Predators goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
74J. Saros24195.7922.06-2.9439:14
35P. Rinne(W)121201.0000.74+0.7422:53

Season series

FLA leads 5-3

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).