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Blues at Predators
NHL

St. Louis Blues at Nashville Predators

NHL scoreboard
St. Louis Blues
▸5
Nashville Predators
4
Final/OTTV NBC, TVAS·Bridgestone Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The St. Louis Blues beat the Nashville Predators 5-4 in overtime, Vladimir Tarasenko scoring at 0:16. The Blues scored first and never trailed. The Blues led 3-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Vladimir Tarasenko's goal at 0:16 of overtime, which took the Blues' chances from 49% to 100%. Expected goals favored the Predators, 2.8 to 2.0; shots on goal were STL 29, NSH 44. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Predators win a replay of these chances 65% of the time. Jake Allen stopped 40 of 44 (.909), 1.2 goals below expected; Juuse Saros stopped 24 of 29 (.828), 3.0 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Vladimir Tarasenko (3 G), 2. Viktor Arvidsson (2 G), 3. Ryan Johansen (2 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    STL
    V. Tarasenko3 G
  2. ★★
    NSH
    V. Arvidsson2 G
  3. ★★★
    NSH
    R. Johansen2 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdOTT
STLSTL043151911529
NSHNSH0811731900444

Scoring

9 goals

2nd period

  1. STL
    A. Pietrangelo(6)PPG
    R. Thomas (12), R. O'Reilly (34)
    snapxG 0.09win prob +12 pts
    1-0
    2:56
  2. STL
    V. Tarasenko(20)
    J. Bouwmeester (9), C. Parayko (7)
    wristxG 0.03win prob +17 pts
    2-0
    4:41
  3. NSH
    V. Arvidsson(23)
    R. Ellis (21), R. Josi (34)
    wristxG 0.18win prob +17 pts
    2-1
    5:06
  4. STL
    T. Bozak(8)
    J. Schwartz (19), A. Steen (10)
    backhandxG 0.07win prob +17 pts
    3-1
    5:51

3rd period

  1. NSH
    R. Josi(11)
    K. Fiala (22), R. Ellis (22)
    wrap-aroundxG 0.03win prob +17 pts
    3-2
    2:48
  2. NSH
    V. Arvidsson(24)
    R. Johansen (38), M. Ekholm (33)
    snapxG 0.21win prob +28 pts
    3-3
    6:10
  3. STL
    V. Tarasenko(21)
    R. O'Reilly (35), J. Bouwmeester (10)
    deflectedxG 0.07win prob +30 pts
    4-3
    7:06
  4. NSH
    F. Forsberg(20)
    R. Johansen (39)
    wristxG 0.17win prob +35 pts
    4-4
    12:53

Overtime

  1. STL
    V. Tarasenko(22)
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.15win prob +51 pts
    5-4
    0:16

Penalties

STL 8 PIM·NSH 8 PIM

1st

  • 7:32NSHKevin Fiala · Slashingdrawn by Alexander Steen2 min
  • 10:13STLJoel Edmundson · Slashingdrawn by Filip Forsberg2 min
  • 14:31NSHP.K. Subban · Elbowingdrawn by Ivan Barbashev2 min

2nd

  • 2:35NSHCody McLeod · Roughingdrawn by Oskar Sundqvist2 min
  • 13:06STLMackenzie MacEachern · Interferencedrawn by Calle Jarnkrok2 min
  • 16:30NSHRyan Johansen · Slashingdrawn by Vladimir Tarasenko2 min
  • 17:25STLVladimir Tarasenko · Elbowingdrawn by Dan Hamhuis2 min

3rd

  • 9:37STLAlex Pietrangelo · Roughingdrawn by Viktor Arvidsson2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
NSH goalSTL goalFinal: NSH 0%

Biggest swing: Vladimir Tarasenko, OT 0:16 — STL 49% → 100%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
V. Arvidsson · On goal · xG 0.29V. Arvidsson · Goal · xG 0.21F. Forsberg · On goal · xG 0.20V. Arvidsson · Goal · xG 0.18F. Forsberg · Goal · xG 0.17F. Forsberg · On goal · xG 0.14N. Bonino · Missed · xG 0.11Y. Weber · Missed · xG 0.07F. Forsberg · Missed · xG 0.07K. Turris · On goal · xG 0.07F. Forsberg · Missed · xG 0.07R. Hartman · On goal · xG 0.06F. Forsberg · Missed · xG 0.05F. Forsberg · On goal · xG 0.05R. Johansen · On goal · xG 0.05B. Boyle · On goal · xG 0.05P. Subban · On goal · xG 0.04C. Jarnkrok · On goal · xG 0.04V. Arvidsson · On goal · xG 0.04K. Turris · On goal · xG 0.04F. Forsberg · Missed · xG 0.04V. Arvidsson · On goal · xG 0.04R. Josi · Missed · xG 0.03K. Fiala · On goal · xG 0.03R. Johansen · On goal · xG 0.03R. Josi · On goal · xG 0.03F. Forsberg · On goal · xG 0.03R. Josi · On goal · xG 0.03P. Subban · On goal · xG 0.03P. Subban · On goal · xG 0.03R. Josi · Goal · xG 0.03P. Subban · On goal · xG 0.03V. Arvidsson · On goal · xG 0.03P. Subban · On goal · xG 0.03P. Subban · Missed · xG 0.03C. Jarnkrok · On goal · xG 0.03P. Subban · On goal · xG 0.03K. Fiala · Missed · xG 0.02R. Josi · On goal · xG 0.02N. Bonino · On goal · xG 0.02R. Hartman · Missed · xG 0.02M. Ekholm · Missed · xG 0.02F. Forsberg · On goal · xG 0.02B. Boyle · On goal · xG 0.01M. Ekholm · Missed · xG 0.01C. Sissons · On goal · xG 0.01Y. Weber · On goal · xG 0.01M. Ekholm · On goal · xG 0.01M. Ekholm · On goal · xG 0.01F. Forsberg · On goal · xG 0.01M. Ekholm · Missed · xG 0.01B. Boyle · On goal · xG 0.01R. Josi · On goal · xG 0.01K. Turris · On goal · xG 0.01B. Boyle · On goal · xG 0.00M. Ekholm · On goal · xG 0.00M. Ekholm · On goal · xG 0.00
NSH4 G · 2.8 xG · 57 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

STLvsNSH
2.05 G
All situations
4 G2.8
1.54 G
Even strength
4 G2.1
0.51 G
Power play
0 G0.7
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 101 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
STL35%65%NSH

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.95 – 2.74

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

STLvsNSH
29
Shots on goal
44
49%
Faceoffs
51%
1/4
Power play
0/4
8
Penalty minutes
8
15
Hits
28
28
Blocked shots
7
7
Giveaways
20
2
Takeaways
7

Box score

every player line
St. Louis Blues skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
55C. ParaykoD011+340.05330—27:15
19J. BouwmeesterD022+110.02100—24:40
27A. PietrangeloD101-220.20162—21:07
90R. O'ReillyC022+120.252005621:00
6J. EdmundsonD000-320.01122—19:38
10B. SchennC000-100.05000019:02
17J. SchwartzL011+120.2010010016:52
91V. TarasenkoR303080.55112—16:20
21T. BozakC101+130.150204616:00
7P. MaroonL000000.11200—15:59
20A. SteenL011000.02010—15:50
12Z. SanfordL000020.16150—15:16
70O. SundqvistC000020.161004312:59
41R. BortuzzoD000000.00060—12:52
29V. DunnD000000.00020—12:23
49I. BarbashevL000-110.021006710:36
18R. ThomasC011-100.00000009:00
62M. MacEachernL000-100.00002—05:59
St. Louis Blues goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
34J. Allen(W)44404.9092.79-1.2160:16

Season series

STL leads 4-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).