Which NFL teams' records are ahead of how they played in 2026?

1 NFL team's record is at least 1.0 wins ahead of their play through week 4: Philadelphia Eagles (2–2, played like 0.9 wins).

Which NFL teams are better than their record in 2026?

1 NFL team's record is at least 1.0 wins behind their play through week 4: Houston Texans (0–4, played like 1.4 wins).

How are a team's expected wins worked out?

Each game is replayed: the team's per-play efficiency (EPA) margin is held fixed and everything that does not repeat — fumble bounces, kicks, whistles — is re-drawn. The share of replays the team wins is its win share for that game, and expected wins is the sum of those shares. The conversion from EPA margin to points was fitted on 4,382 NFL team-games from 2016-2023. Scored on 1,140 team-games from 2024-2025 that it never saw, EPA margin and the final margin correlated 0.93.

How far ahead or behind does a record have to be to count?

1.0 wins at this point of the season. The bar is the gap that one in five historical NFL team-seasons reached after the same number of games (4), and never less than one whole win: 29 of 320 team-seasons from 2016-2025 were that far out either way after 4 games.

Does a record ahead of its play hold up?

Only weakly. Across 320 NFL team-seasons, a team's gap over its first 6 games had a correlation of 0.15 with its gap over the rest of the season. The gap so far says little about the gap still to come.

What counts as a one-score game?

A game decided by 8 points or fewer. A long run of one-score wins or losses is one of the usual places a record pulls away from a team's play.

NFL Record Check

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2026 through week 4: 1 NFL team has a record at least 1.0 wins ahead of their play — Philadelphia Eagles; 1 is that far behind — Houston Texans. The other 30 have earned their records.

Record check · as of Oct 7, 2026 · through week 4.The record against its earned wins: each game replayed with the team's per-play efficiency held fixed, earned wins being the sum of the share of replays it wins.How it’s built Link to this

Each game is replayed with the team's per-play efficiency held fixed and everything that does not repeat re-drawn. The wins a team would expect from those replays are its play; the gap to its actual record is what the bounces, the kicks and the close finishes added or took away.

SortAhead of their playBehind their play

#	Team	Record	Earned wins	Gap	One-score	Fumbles	FG	Opp FG
1	Philadelphia EaglesNFC East	2–2	0.9	+1.1Ahead of play	2–1	−0.5	—	−1.1
2	Minnesota VikingsNFC North	4–0	3.0	+1.0Earned	3–0	+1.0	+6.6	+1.6
3	Green Bay PackersNFC North	2–2	1.0	+1.0Earned	2–0	−0.5	+1.3	—
4	Pittsburgh SteelersAFC North	2–2	1.2	+0.8Earned	2–1	0.0	−2.6	−1.1
5	Indianapolis ColtsAFC South	2–2	1.4	+0.7Earned	1–1	−1.5	+7.9	+0.9
6	Cleveland BrownsAFC North	3–1	2.4	+0.6Earned	3–0	−1.5	+4.6	+3.1
7	New York GiantsNFC East	3–1	2.5	+0.5Earned	2–0	+1.0	+3.3	—
8	San Francisco 49ersNFC West	4–0	3.5	+0.5Earned	1–0	−1.0	—	+0.1
9	Detroit LionsNFC North	2–2	1.6	+0.4Earned	2–1	+1.0	+2.5	—
10	Kansas City ChiefsAFC West	4–0	3.6	+0.4Earned	2–0	+3.0	−0.3	+4.5
11	Buffalo BillsAFC East	3–1	2.6	+0.4Earned	2–1	−0.5	+1.6	—
12	Denver BroncosAFC West	2–2	1.7	+0.3Earned	2–0	−1.0	−0.2	−1.2
13	Dallas CowboysNFC East	2–2	1.8	+0.2Earned	1–2	−1.0	−2.1	+2.6
14	Baltimore RavensAFC North	3–1	2.8	+0.2Earned	2–1	0.0	+2.9	+2.1
15	Jacksonville JaguarsAFC South	3–1	2.9	+0.1Earned	1–1	+0.5	+0.7	—
16	New England PatriotsAFC East	2–2	1.9	+0.1Earned	1–1	0.0	−3.0	−1.1
17	Carolina PanthersNFC South	2–2	2.0	0.0Earned	1–1	+1.0	+4.0	+4.5
18	New Orleans SaintsNFC South	1–3	1.1	−0.1Earned	1–2	−1.0	−1.5	−0.3
19	Las Vegas RaidersAFC West	3–1	3.1	−0.1Earned	1–1	−0.5	+5.4	—
20	Arizona CardinalsNFC West	1–3	1.1	−0.1Earned	0–1	+1.5	+1.0	—
21	Seattle SeahawksNFC West	3–1	3.1	−0.1Earned	2–1	+1.5	—	+3.5
22	Washington CommandersNFC East	1–3	1.1	−0.1Earned	1–1	+1.0	−0.1	+4.0
23	Chicago BearsNFC North	3–1	3.2	−0.2Earned	0–1	0.0	−0.5	+2.5
24	Miami DolphinsAFC East	0–4	0.3	−0.3Earned	0–1	−1.0	−3.3	+3.5
25	Atlanta FalconsNFC South	2–2	2.5	−0.5Earned	0–1	+0.5	−1.6	−4.9
26	Los Angeles RamsNFC West	2–2	2.6	−0.6Earned	1–1	−1.0	−2.5	—
27	Cincinnati BengalsAFC North	2–2	2.8	−0.8Earned	1–2	+0.5	+6.2	+3.0
28	Los Angeles ChargersAFC West	0–4	0.8	−0.8Earned	0–2	0.0	−2.8	+0.5
29	Tampa Bay BuccaneersNFC South	0–4	0.9	−0.9Earned	0–4	−0.5	+4.1	+7.6
30	New York JetsAFC East	1–3	2.0	−1.0Earned	0–2	+1.0	+0.3	—
31	Tennessee TitansAFC South	0–4	1.0	−1.0Earned	0–3	−1.0	—	+3.2
32	Houston TexansAFC South	0–4	1.4	−1.4Behind play	0–3	−1.0	+3.1	+4.9

How to read it

Earned wins is the sum of a team's per-game replay win shares. Gap is its wins minus that (a tie counts as half a win). A verdict needs a gap of 1.0 wins or more at this point of the season — the size that 29 of 320 NFL team-seasons (2016-2025) reached after 4 games — and at least 3 games played.

The replay re-draws everything the play-by-play efficiency does not capture. Most of that is chance — fumble bounces, a 47-yard kick — but not all of it: red-zone finishing and special teams live there too. That is why the fumble and field-goal columns sit beside the gap, so you can see where it came from.

Record check: common questions

Which NFL teams' records are ahead of how they played in 2026?: 1 NFL team's record is at least 1.0 wins ahead of their play through week 4: Philadelphia Eagles (2–2, played like 0.9 wins).
Which NFL teams are better than their record in 2026?: 1 NFL team's record is at least 1.0 wins behind their play through week 4: Houston Texans (0–4, played like 1.4 wins).
How are a team's expected wins worked out?: Each game is replayed: the team's per-play efficiency (EPA) margin is held fixed and everything that does not repeat — fumble bounces, kicks, whistles — is re-drawn. The share of replays the team wins is its win share for that game, and expected wins is the sum of those shares. The conversion from EPA margin to points was fitted on 4,382 NFL team-games from 2016-2023. Scored on 1,140 team-games from 2024-2025 that it never saw, EPA margin and the final margin correlated 0.93.
How far ahead or behind does a record have to be to count?: 1.0 wins at this point of the season. The bar is the gap that one in five historical NFL team-seasons reached after the same number of games (4), and never less than one whole win: 29 of 320 team-seasons from 2016-2025 were that far out either way after 4 games.
Does a record ahead of its play hold up?: Only weakly. Across 320 NFL team-seasons, a team's gap over its first 6 games had a correlation of 0.15 with its gap over the rest of the season. The gap so far says little about the gap still to come.
What counts as a one-score game?: A game decided by 8 points or fewer. A long run of one-score wins or losses is one of the usual places a record pulls away from a team's play.

Loading the record check…

NFL Record Check

2026 through week 4: 1 NFL team has a record at least 1.0 wins ahead of their play — Philadelphia Eagles; 1 is that far behind — Houston Texans. The other 30 have earned their records.

SortAhead of their playBehind their play

#	Team	Record	Earned wins	Gap	One-score	Fumbles	FG	Opp FG
1	Philadelphia EaglesNFC East	2–2	0.9	+1.1Ahead of play	2–1	−0.5	—	−1.1
2	Minnesota VikingsNFC North	4–0	3.0	+1.0Earned	3–0	+1.0	+6.6	+1.6
3	Green Bay PackersNFC North	2–2	1.0	+1.0Earned	2–0	−0.5	+1.3	—
4	Pittsburgh SteelersAFC North	2–2	1.2	+0.8Earned	2–1	0.0	−2.6	−1.1
5	Indianapolis ColtsAFC South	2–2	1.4	+0.7Earned	1–1	−1.5	+7.9	+0.9
6	Cleveland BrownsAFC North	3–1	2.4	+0.6Earned	3–0	−1.5	+4.6	+3.1
7	New York GiantsNFC East	3–1	2.5	+0.5Earned	2–0	+1.0	+3.3	—
8	San Francisco 49ersNFC West	4–0	3.5	+0.5Earned	1–0	−1.0	—	+0.1
9	Detroit LionsNFC North	2–2	1.6	+0.4Earned	2–1	+1.0	+2.5	—
10	Kansas City ChiefsAFC West	4–0	3.6	+0.4Earned	2–0	+3.0	−0.3	+4.5
11	Buffalo BillsAFC East	3–1	2.6	+0.4Earned	2–1	−0.5	+1.6	—
12	Denver BroncosAFC West	2–2	1.7	+0.3Earned	2–0	−1.0	−0.2	−1.2
13	Dallas CowboysNFC East	2–2	1.8	+0.2Earned	1–2	−1.0	−2.1	+2.6
14	Baltimore RavensAFC North	3–1	2.8	+0.2Earned	2–1	0.0	+2.9	+2.1
15	Jacksonville JaguarsAFC South	3–1	2.9	+0.1Earned	1–1	+0.5	+0.7	—
16	New England PatriotsAFC East	2–2	1.9	+0.1Earned	1–1	0.0	−3.0	−1.1
17	Carolina PanthersNFC South	2–2	2.0	0.0Earned	1–1	+1.0	+4.0	+4.5
18	New Orleans SaintsNFC South	1–3	1.1	−0.1Earned	1–2	−1.0	−1.5	−0.3
19	Las Vegas RaidersAFC West	3–1	3.1	−0.1Earned	1–1	−0.5	+5.4	—
20	Arizona CardinalsNFC West	1–3	1.1	−0.1Earned	0–1	+1.5	+1.0	—
21	Seattle SeahawksNFC West	3–1	3.1	−0.1Earned	2–1	+1.5	—	+3.5
22	Washington CommandersNFC East	1–3	1.1	−0.1Earned	1–1	+1.0	−0.1	+4.0
23	Chicago BearsNFC North	3–1	3.2	−0.2Earned	0–1	0.0	−0.5	+2.5
24	Miami DolphinsAFC East	0–4	0.3	−0.3Earned	0–1	−1.0	−3.3	+3.5
25	Atlanta FalconsNFC South	2–2	2.5	−0.5Earned	0–1	+0.5	−1.6	−4.9
26	Los Angeles RamsNFC West	2–2	2.6	−0.6Earned	1–1	−1.0	−2.5	—
27	Cincinnati BengalsAFC North	2–2	2.8	−0.8Earned	1–2	+0.5	+6.2	+3.0
28	Los Angeles ChargersAFC West	0–4	0.8	−0.8Earned	0–2	0.0	−2.8	+0.5
29	Tampa Bay BuccaneersNFC South	0–4	0.9	−0.9Earned	0–4	−0.5	+4.1	+7.6
30	New York JetsAFC East	1–3	2.0	−1.0Earned	0–2	+1.0	+0.3	—
31	Tennessee TitansAFC South	0–4	1.0	−1.0Earned	0–3	−1.0	—	+3.2
32	Houston TexansAFC South	0–4	1.4	−1.4Behind play	0–3	−1.0	+3.1	+4.9

How to read it

Record check: common questions

Which NFL teams' records are ahead of how they played in 2026?: 1 NFL team's record is at least 1.0 wins ahead of their play through week 4: Philadelphia Eagles (2–2, played like 0.9 wins).
Which NFL teams are better than their record in 2026?: 1 NFL team's record is at least 1.0 wins behind their play through week 4: Houston Texans (0–4, played like 1.4 wins).
How are a team's expected wins worked out?: Each game is replayed: the team's per-play efficiency (EPA) margin is held fixed and everything that does not repeat — fumble bounces, kicks, whistles — is re-drawn. The share of replays the team wins is its win share for that game, and expected wins is the sum of those shares. The conversion from EPA margin to points was fitted on 4,382 NFL team-games from 2016-2023. Scored on 1,140 team-games from 2024-2025 that it never saw, EPA margin and the final margin correlated 0.93.
How far ahead or behind does a record have to be to count?: 1.0 wins at this point of the season. The bar is the gap that one in five historical NFL team-seasons reached after the same number of games (4), and never less than one whole win: 29 of 320 team-seasons from 2016-2025 were that far out either way after 4 games.
Does a record ahead of its play hold up?: Only weakly. Across 320 NFL team-seasons, a team's gap over its first 6 games had a correlation of 0.15 with its gap over the rest of the season. The gap so far says little about the gap still to come.
What counts as a one-score game?: A game decided by 8 points or fewer. A long run of one-score wins or losses is one of the usual places a record pulls away from a team's play.