Dallas Stars at Buffalo Sabres
TV Prime Video, MSG-B·KeyBank Center
Our win probability
and the three reasons
48%Stars
to win
52%
Sabres
- Expected goals
- 2.9–3.1
- Goes to overtime
- 22%
← favors favors →
favors →- Ability to win22% of the signalfavors BUF.527vs.535win rate (OT = tie)
- Scoring chances66% of the signalfavors DAL.038vs.0455v5 xG diff / 60
- Goaltending12% of the signalfavors DAL.109vs-.006GSAx / 60
- Home icefavors BUFBUF at home
Gridpex NHL model v2026.09.28 · ratings as of
Goaltending
projected startersStars
Jake Oettinger+0.12 GSAx/6065% to start376 career GP
Casey DeSmith+0.09 GSAx/6035% to start225 career GP
Sabres
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen-0.03 GSAx/6052% to start196 career GP
Alex Lyon+0.03 GSAx/6041% to start163 career GP
Colten Ellis-0.08 GSAx/607% to start16 career GP
GSAx/60: goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, from our shot model — above zero is better than an average goalie facing the same shots.
Coaches: DAL Glen Gulutzan · BUF Lindy Ruff
Leaders
vs- Points
- Goals
- Assists
Season
2025-26 regular season · league rank of 32- 3.339th
- Goals for / game
- 5th3.45
- 2.712nd
- Goals against / game
- 10th2.93
- 28.6%2nd
- Power play
- 21st19.5%
- 80.3%13th
- Penalty kill
- 4th81.9%
- 51.6%7th
- Faceoffs
- 32nd45.9%
Season series
first meeting- @this game
- @
Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).