Toronto Maple Leafs at Vegas Golden Knights
TV SCRIPPS, TSN4·T-Mobile Arena
Our win probability
and the three reasons
35%Maple Leafs
to win
65%
Golden Knights
- Expected goals
- 2.5–3.5
- Goes to overtime
- 21%
← favors favors →
favors →- Ability to win22% of the signalfavors VGK.479vs.514win rate (OT = tie)
- Scoring chances66% of the signalfavors VGK-.113vs.1545v5 xG diff / 60
- Goaltending12% of the signalfavors TOR.052vs-.050GSAx / 60
- Projected lineupsfavors VGK-.105vs1.035v5 xG impact / 60 of the dressed skaters
- Home icefavors VGKVGK at home
Gridpex NHL model v2026.09.28 · ratings as of
Goaltending
projected startersMaple Leafs
Sergei Bobrovsky-0.01 GSAx/6070% to start923 career GP
Anthony Stolarz+0.20 GSAx/6030% to start176 career GP
Golden Knights
Adin Hill-0.06 GSAx/6052% to start243 career GP
Carter Hart-0.04 GSAx/6048% to start281 career GP
GSAx/60: goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, from our shot model — above zero is better than an average goalie facing the same shots.
Coaches: TOR Jim Hiller · VGK Ryan Craig
Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).