Minnesota Wild at Tampa Bay Lightning
TV MINNHL, Wild+·Benchmark International Arena
Our win probability
and the three reasons
42%Wild
to win
58%
Lightning
- Expected goals
- 2.8–3.2
- Goes to overtime
- 22%
← favors favors →
favors →- Ability to win22% of the signalfavors TBL.511vs.523win rate (OT = tie)
- Scoring chances66% of the signalfavors TBL.010vs.1255v5 xG diff / 60
- Goaltending12% of the signalfavors TBL-.090vs.165GSAx / 60
- Projected lineupsfavors MIN.331vs.2945v5 xG impact / 60 of the dressed skaters
- Home icefavors TBLTBL at home
Gridpex NHL model v2026.09.28 · ratings as of
Goaltending
projected startersWild
Calvin Pickard-0.21 GSAx/6060% to start204 career GP
Jesper Wallstedt+0.10 GSAx/6040% to start50 career GP
Lightning
Andrei Vasilevskiy+0.22 GSAx/6085% to start725 career GP
Dennis Hildeby+0.08 GSAx/609% to start26 career GP
Mads Sogaard-0.45 GSAx/606% to start31 career GP
GSAx/60: goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, from our shot model — above zero is better than an average goalie facing the same shots.
Coaches: MIN John Hynes · TBL Jon Cooper
Leaders
vs- Points
N. Kucherov130 - Goals
- Assists
Season
2025-26 regular season · league rank of 32- 3.2710th
- Goals for / game
- 4th3.49
- 2.874th
- Goals against / game
- 3rd2.79
- 25.2%3rd
- Power play
- 17th20.7%
- 79.8%16th
- Penalty kill
- 3rd82.6%
- 46.6%30th
- Faceoffs
- 28th47.4%
Season series
first meeting- @this game
- @
Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).