Tampa Bay Lightning at Minnesota Wild
TV MINNHL, Wild+·Grand Casino Arena
Our win probability
and the three reasons
56%Lightning
to win
44%
Wild
- Expected goals
- 3.2–2.8
- Goes to overtime
- 22%
← favors favors →
favors →- Ability to win22% of the signalfavors TBL.523vs.511win rate (OT = tie)
- Scoring chances66% of the signalfavors TBL.125vs.0105v5 xG diff / 60
- Goaltending12% of the signalfavors TBL.165vs-.090GSAx / 60
- Projected lineupsfavors MIN.294vs.3315v5 xG impact / 60 of the dressed skaters
- Home icefavors MINMIN at home
- Back-to-backfavors TBLMIN played yesterday
Gridpex NHL model v2026.09.28 · ratings as of
Goaltending
projected startersLightning
Andrei Vasilevskiy+0.22 GSAx/6085% to start725 career GP
Dennis Hildeby+0.08 GSAx/609% to start26 career GP
Mads Sogaard-0.45 GSAx/606% to start31 career GP
Wild
Calvin Pickard-0.21 GSAx/6060% to start204 career GP
Jesper Wallstedt+0.10 GSAx/6040% to start50 career GP
GSAx/60: goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, from our shot model — above zero is better than an average goalie facing the same shots.
Coaches: TBL Jon Cooper · MIN John Hynes
Leaders
vs- Points
N. Kucherov130 - Goals
- Assists
Season
2025-26 regular season · league rank of 32- 3.494th
- Goals for / game
- 10th3.27
- 2.793rd
- Goals against / game
- 4th2.87
- 20.7%17th
- Power play
- 3rd25.2%
- 82.6%3rd
- Penalty kill
- 16th79.8%
- 47.4%28th
- Faceoffs
- 30th46.6%
Season series
first meeting- @
- @this game
Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).