Colorado Avalanche at Calgary Flames
TV ALT, KTVD·Scotiabank Saddledome
Our win probability
and the three reasons
54%Avalanche
to win
46%
Flames
- Expected goals
- 3.1–2.9
- Goes to overtime
- 22%
← favors favors →
favors →- Ability to win22% of the signalfavors COL.551vs.481win rate (OT = tie)
- Scoring chances66% of the signalfavors COL.242vs-.1275v5 xG diff / 60
- Goaltending12% of the signalfavors COL.096vs.016GSAx / 60
- Home icefavors CGYCGY at home
- Back-to-backfavors COLCOL played yesterday
Gridpex NHL model v2026.09.28 · ratings as of
Goaltending
projected startersAvalanche
Mackenzie Blackwood+0.09 GSAx/6054% to start302 career GP
Scott Wedgewood+0.12 GSAx/6044% to start214 career GP
Trent Miner-0.09 GSAx/602% to start6 career GP
Flames
Dustin Wolf-0.02 GSAx/6075% to start128 career GP
Devin Cooley+0.14 GSAx/6025% to start37 career GP
GSAx/60: goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, from our shot model — above zero is better than an average goalie facing the same shots.
Coaches: COL Jared Bednar · CGY Ryan Huska
Leaders
vs- Points
N. MacKinnon127 - Goals
M. Frost22 - Assists
Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).