Calgary Flames at Colorado Avalanche
TV ALT, SN·Ball Arena
Our win probability
and the three reasons
30%Flames
to win
70%
Avalanche
- Expected goals
- 2.4–3.6
- Goes to overtime
- 20%
← favors favors →
favors →- Ability to win22% of the signalfavors COL.481vs.551win rate (OT = tie)
- Scoring chances66% of the signalfavors COL-.127vs.2425v5 xG diff / 60
- Goaltending12% of the signalfavors COL.016vs.096GSAx / 60
- Projected lineupsfavors COL-.091vs.3375v5 xG impact / 60 of the dressed skaters
- Home icefavors COLCOL at home
- Back-to-backfavors CGYCGY played yesterday
Gridpex NHL model v2026.09.28 · ratings as of
Goaltending
projected startersFlames
Dustin Wolf-0.02 GSAx/6075% to start128 career GP
Devin Cooley+0.14 GSAx/6025% to start37 career GP
Avalanche
Mackenzie Blackwood+0.09 GSAx/6054% to start302 career GP
Scott Wedgewood+0.12 GSAx/6044% to start214 career GP
Trent Miner-0.09 GSAx/602% to start6 career GP
GSAx/60: goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, from our shot model — above zero is better than an average goalie facing the same shots.
Coaches: CGY Ryan Huska · COL Jared Bednar
Leaders
vs- Points
N. MacKinnon127 - Goals
M. Frost22 - Assists
Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).