Red Sox at Orioles
Last play · Terrin Vavra lines into a double play, center fielder Jhostynxon Garcia to second baseman Mikey Romero. Dylan Carlson out at 2nd.
Win probability
Orioles0%
BOS 100%BAL 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalBOS 0 – 5 BAL
Orioles led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 10.5 ↓
fair over 51.1% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+140 / -175
Orioles favored ↑50%Red Sox favored ↓
Biggest swing · Nick Sogard homers (1) on a fly ball to right field. Blake Sabol scores. (inning 8) — -34% Red Sox
8Nick Sogard homers (1) on a fly ball to right field. Blake Sabol scores.6–6
7Daz Cameron out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Phillip Sikes. Emmanuel Rivera scores. Terrin Vavra to 3rd.4–6
7Nathan Hickey homers (1) on a fly ball to right field. Nate Eaton scores.4–5
7Abraham Toro homers (1) on a fly ball to right field. Blake Sabol scores.2–5
5Ryan Mountcastle out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Trayce Thompson. Adley Rutschman scores. Terrin Vavra to 3rd.0–5
4Vimael Machín singles on a ground ball to center fielder Nate Eaton. Heston Kjerstad scores.0–4
2Luis Vázquez out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Trayce Thompson. Heston Kjerstad scores.0–2
1Adley Rutschman homers (1) on a fly ball to right field.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
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