Cardinals at Marlins
Last play · Nathan Church grounds out, shortstop Jack Winkler to first baseman Jay Beshears.
Win probability
Marlins100%
STL 0%MIA 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalSTL 1 – 4 MIA
Marlins led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 46.3% · hold 5.3%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-130 / +105
Marlins favored ↑50%Cardinals favored ↓
Biggest swing · Luken Baker homers (2) on a fly ball to right field. Ian Petrutz scores. (inning 7) — -19% Cardinals
8Fenwick Trimble singles on a ground ball to third baseman José Fermín. Jack Winkler scores. Jay Beshears to 3rd.3–5
7Luken Baker homers (2) on a fly ball to right field. Ian Petrutz scores.3–4
5Kyle Stowers singles on a sharp line drive to center fielder Michael Siani. Connor Norby scores. Jonah Bride to 2nd.1–4
5Jesús Sánchez out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Jordan Walker. Jared Serna scores.1–3
5Connor Norby singles on a line drive to left fielder Matt Koperniak. Javier Sanoja scores. Jared Serna to 3rd.1–2
3Jared Serna homers (1) on a fly ball to left center field.1–1
2Jordan Walker out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Jesús Sánchez. Nolan Gorman scores.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
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