Rays at Braves
Last play · Stephen Paolini strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Braves0%
TB 100%ATL 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalTB 4 – 2 ATL
Rays led after 5
Total runs
12.5
opened 16.5 ↓
fair over 50% · hold 4.8%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+150 / -190
Braves favored ↑50%Rays favored ↓
Biggest swing · Brandon Lowe homers (2) on a fly ball to right center field. Yandy Díaz scores. (inning 3) — -26% Rays
6Bryan De La Cruz grounds out softly to first baseman Bob Seymour. E.J. Exposito scores.4–3
4José Caballero out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Bryan De La Cruz. Danny Jansen scores. Carson Williams to 3rd.4–2
4Carson Williams doubles (2) on a fly ball to right fielder Bryan De La Cruz. Curtis Mead scores. Danny Jansen to 3rd.3–2
3Matt Olson singles on a ground ball to center fielder Chandler Simpson. Drake Baldwin scores. Eli White scores. Orlando Arcia to 3rd.2–2
3Brandon Lowe homers (2) on a fly ball to right center field. Yandy Díaz scores.2–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
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