Guardians at Padres
Last play · Gabriel Arias flies out to left fielder Brandon Lockridge.
Win probability
Padres100%
CLE 0%SD 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalCLE 0 – 4 SD
Padres led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 52.2% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+145 / -175
Padres favored ↑50%Guardians favored ↓
Biggest swing · Manny Machado singles on a sharp ground ball to third baseman José Ramírez. Luis Arraez scores. Throwing error by third baseman José Ramírez. (inning 3) — +23% Padres
8Kyle Manzardo out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Gavin Sheets. Steven Kwan scores.2–5
7Luis Arraez homers (1) on a fly ball to right field.1–5
7Lane Thomas grounds out, shortstop Xander Bogaerts to first baseman Luis Arraez. Carlos Santana scores.1–4
3Jackson Merrill homers (2) on a fly ball to right center field. Manny Machado scores.0–4
3Manny Machado singles on a sharp ground ball to third baseman José Ramírez. Luis Arraez scores. Throwing error by third baseman José Ramírez.0–2
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.


















































