Tulane vs. UAB: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
TULNTeam statsUAB
- Q4 1:22UABSolomon Beebe 6 Yd Run (Jonah Delange Kick)71–20
- Q4 7:04TULNJamauri McClure 29 Yd Run (Jacob Barnes Kick)71–13
- Q4 8:21TULNArnold Barnes III 14 Yd Run (Jacob Barnes Kick)64–13
- Q4 13:28UABAmare Thomas 73 Yd pass from Jalen Kitna (Jonah Delange Kick)57–13
- Q3 5:18TULNChris Rodgers 29 Yd Interception Return (Jacob Barnes Kick)57–6
- Q3 5:32TULNYulkeith Brown 22 Yd pass from Ty Thompson (Ethan Head PAT failed)50–6
- Q3 11:13TULNYulkeith Brown 14 Yd pass from Darian Mensah (Ethan Head Kick)44–6
- Q2 1:11TULNArnold Barnes III 1 Yd Run (Ethan Head Kick)37–6
- Q2 6:24TULNEthan Head 25 Yd Field Goal 30–6
- Q2 14:46TULNMakhi Hughes 51 Yd Run (Ethan Head Kick)27–6
- Q1 0:44UABJonah Delange 32 Yd Field Goal 20–6
- Q1 3:02TULNMakhi Hughes 1 Yd Run (Ethan Head Kick)20–3
- Q1 4:21TULNRayshawn Pleasant 100 Yd Kickoff Return (Ethan Head PAT failed)13–3
- Q1 4:34UABJonah Delange 33 Yd Field Goal 7–3
- Q1 7:33TULNTy Thompson 3 Yd Run (Ethan Head Kick)7–0
How the model called it
- PassDarian Mensah 12/15, 134 YDS, 1 TD
- RushMakhi Hughes 15 CAR, 119 YDS, 2 TD
- RecYulkeith Brown 4 REC, 60 YDS, 2 TD
- PassJalen Kitna 20/41, 239 YDS, 1 TD, 3 INT
- RushLee Beebe Jr. 9 CAR, 78 YDS
- RecAmare Thomas 5 REC, 98 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsTULN up 51 entering the 4th quarter. Across 74 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 7:33TULN +10%
Ty Thompson run for 3 yds for a TD (Ethan Head KICK)
- Q1 4:21TULN +7%
Rayshawn Pleasant 100 Yd Kickoff Return (Ethan Head PAT failed)
FAQ
What was the final score of Tulane vs. UAB?
Tulane 71, UAB 20.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (TULN) was correct.
| TULN | UAB | |
|---|---|---|
| 497 | Total yards | 305 |
| 180 | Passing yards | 230 |
| 317 | Rushing yards | 75 |
| 24 | First downs | 13 |
| 3-8 | 3rd down | 4-16 |
| 1-2 | 4th down | 0-3 |
| 14/18 | Comp/Att | 21/43 |
| 10.0 | Yards per pass | 5.3 |
| 6.3 | Yards per rush | 3.4 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 3 |
| 7-65 | Penalties | 7-45 |
| 33:27 | Possession | 26:33 |
Costliest call
Q3 3:44 UAB go for it on 4th & 10 at UAB 45. The model preferred punt, a gap of 0.53 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 1:22UABSolomon Beebe 6 Yd Run (Jonah Delange Kick)71–20
- Q4 7:04TULNJamauri McClure 29 Yd Run (Jacob Barnes Kick)71–13
- Q4 8:21TULNArnold Barnes III 14 Yd Run (Jacob Barnes Kick)64–13
- Q4 13:28UABAmare Thomas 73 Yd pass from Jalen Kitna (Jonah Delange Kick)57–13
- Q3 5:18TULNChris Rodgers 29 Yd Interception Return (Jacob Barnes Kick)57–6
- Q3 5:32TULNYulkeith Brown 22 Yd pass from Ty Thompson (Ethan Head PAT failed)50–6
- Q3 11:13TULNYulkeith Brown 14 Yd pass from Darian Mensah (Ethan Head Kick)44–6
- Q2 1:11TULNArnold Barnes III 1 Yd Run (Ethan Head Kick)37–6
- Q2 6:24TULNEthan Head 25 Yd Field Goal 30–6
- Q2 14:46TULNMakhi Hughes 51 Yd Run (Ethan Head Kick)27–6
- Q1 0:44UABJonah Delange 32 Yd Field Goal 20–6
- Q1 3:02TULNMakhi Hughes 1 Yd Run (Ethan Head Kick)20–3
- Q1 4:21TULNRayshawn Pleasant 100 Yd Kickoff Return (Ethan Head PAT failed)13–3
- Q1 4:34UABJonah Delange 33 Yd Field Goal 7–3
- Q1 7:33TULNTy Thompson 3 Yd Run (Ethan Head Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (UAB Elo 1226, TULN Elo 1653 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects UAB +14.7 (18% to win) — 4.8 points clear of UAB's market line of +19.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 15 · through week 2 · drive simulation
Season form — 2024
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesTulane leads 7–6 · Tulane has won 2 straight · 46% have been one-possession games
| TULN | UAB | |
|---|---|---|
| +13.8 (#27) | CORE overall | -7.4 (#89) |
| +7 / -7 | offense / defense | -2 / +6 |
| 2.86 | points / drive | 1.83 |
| 1.70 | allowed / drive | 2.99 |
| 21% | three-and-outs | 25% |
| -8 | pass over expected | +4 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
Create a free account →You get Pro free for 6 months. No card required.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →