Western Illinois vs. North Dakota State: Final Score & Recap

ReplayCommandBoxAnalyticsMatchup

Western Illinois0-1

07

North Dakota State4-2

▸0052

Final

FargodomeConference game

	1	2	3	4	T
WEST	0	0	0	7	7
NDSU	14	24	14	0	52

WESTTeam statsNDSU

184Total yards625

71Pass200

113Rush425

10First downs22

2-133rd down7-10

1Turnovers1

27:41Possession32:19

Scoring plays

• Q4 6:26WESTAJ Coons 43 Yd pass from Matt Morrissey (Owen Valek Kick)7–52
• Q3 4:36NDSUBarika Kpeenu 24 Yd Run (Griffin Crosa Kick)0–52
• Q3 10:45NDSUTK Marshall 38 Yd Run (Griffin Crosa Kick)0–45
• Q2 0:05NDSUGriffin Crosa 29 Yd Field Goal 0–38
• Q2 8:48NDSUJoe Stoffel 49 Yd pass from Cole Payton (Griffin Crosa Kick)0–35
• Q2 11:14NDSURaJa Nelson 76 Yd Run (Griffin Crosa Kick)0–28
• Q2 13:12NDSUBarika Kpeenu 5 Yd Run (Griffin Crosa Kick)0–21
• Q1 1:51NDSUTK Marshall 1 Yd Run (Griffin Crosa Kick)0–14
• Q1 9:02NDSUTK Marshall 1 Yd Run (Griffin Crosa Kick)0–7

How the model called it

Market line

NDSU −36.5

Against the number

NDSU covered

line NDSU −36.5

What the numbers say

• WEST played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and NDSU did not face the same ones. 3rd & 8.6 vs 3rd & 6.4

Win probability

ours solid · ESPN dashed

NDSU 100%50%WEST 100%

Kickoff127 plays →Final

Tap or hover on the chart to see play details

NDSU (top)WEST (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: NDSU 100%

How the line closed

model vs market

Closing line

NDSU −36.5

Closing total

60.5

Model line

—

Actual result

WEST 7 – 52 NDSU

Leaders

Western Illinois

• PassMatt Morrissey 8/13, 71 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
• RushSeth Glatz 11 CAR, 64 YDS
• RecAJ Coons 2 REC, 48 YDS, 1 TD

North Dakota State

• PassCam Miller 8/12, 103 YDS
• RushRaJa Nelson 3 CAR, 103 YDS, 1 TD
• RecJoe Stoffel 2 REC, 84 YDS, 1 TD

Tempo

what this pace leaves on the clock

31.6sper snap · slower the national 24.5s

fastnational avgslow

Snaps run

114

Points / snap

0.52

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

NDSU up 52 entering the 4th quarter. Across 40 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):

100%

NDSU went on to win

A near-lock historically

Most comparable games

WPresbyterian vs Virginia University Of Lynchburg52-0WMontana vs Morehead State59-2WGeorgia Tech vs VMI59-7WUC Davis vs Northern Colorado59-7WUT Martin vs Houston Christian66-7

Fourth downs

14 calls

WEST gave up 1.5 points to the model on fourth down.WEST 7/10 · NDSU 2/3 agreed

FAQ

What was the final score of Western Illinois vs. North Dakota State?

Western Illinois 7, North Dakota State 52.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Yes — the model's pick (NDSU) was correct.

Situational splits

what the averages hide

WEST

NDSU

29%

Success rate

61%

-0.57

EPA / pass

0.60

0.08

EPA / rush

0.67

31%

Early-down success

63%

21%

Pass success

50%

33%

Rush success

66%

10%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

27%

27%

Stuffed rush rate

23%

37%

Pass rate

29%

8.6

Avg 3rd-down distance

6.4

WEST

8.6 yards to go on 3rd down

52 scrimmage snaps

NDSU

6.4 yards to go on 3rd down

62 scrimmage snaps

Team stats

the basics, from ESPN

WEST		NDSU
184	Total yards	625
71	Passing yards	200
113	Rushing yards	425
10	First downs	22
2-13	3rd down	7-10
2-3	4th down	0-2
8/13	Comp/Att	11/16
5.5	Yards per pass	12.5
2.9	Yards per rush	9.7
1	Turnovers	1
4-25	Penalties	7-75
27:41	Possession	32:19

Fourth downs

14 calls

WEST

7/10 with the model

−1.5 pts · −0.0% win prob

NDSU

2/3 with the model

−0.4 pts · −0.0% win prob

Costliest call

Q2 11:09 WEST go for it on 4th & 9 at WEST 23. The model preferred punt, a gap of 0.88 points.

Every call, priced (14)

Drive chart

every possession, start to finish

WEST 1/11 scoring drives← own end zone →NDSU 8/11 scoring drives

NDSUTD10 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q1

WESTPUNT5 pl, 14 yds· own 5Q1

NDSUTD7 pl, 65 yds· own 35Q1

WESTPUNT3 pl, -1 yds· own 24Q1

NDSUTD4 pl, 20 yds· opp 20Q2

WESTPUNT4 pl, 12 yds· own 18Q2

NDSUTD1 pl, 76 yds· own 24Q2

WESTINT5 pl, 16 yds· own 22Q2

NDSUTD1 pl, 49 yds· opp 49Q2

WESTPUNT6 pl, 7 yds· own 25Q2

NDSUFG12 pl, 81 yds· own 8Q2

WESTPUNT3 pl, 7 yds· own 23Q3

NDSUTD4 pl, 65 yds· own 35Q3

WESTPUNT4 pl, 18 yds· own 25Q3

NDSUTD6 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q3

WESTDOWNS10 pl, 53 yds· own 22Q3

NDSUDOWNS9 pl, 40 yds· own 25Q4

WESTPUNT3 pl, 3 yds· own 35Q4

NDSUFUM1 pl, 5 yds· own 43Q4

WESTTD2 pl, 48 yds· opp 48Q4

NDSUDOWNS6 pl, 29 yds· own 25Q4

WESTEND7 pl, 7 yds· own 46Q4

Scoring plays

• Q4 6:26WESTAJ Coons 43 Yd pass from Matt Morrissey (Owen Valek Kick)7–52
• Q3 4:36NDSUBarika Kpeenu 24 Yd Run (Griffin Crosa Kick)0–52
• Q3 10:45NDSUTK Marshall 38 Yd Run (Griffin Crosa Kick)0–45
• Q2 0:05NDSUGriffin Crosa 29 Yd Field Goal 0–38
• Q2 8:48NDSUJoe Stoffel 49 Yd pass from Cole Payton (Griffin Crosa Kick)0–35
• Q2 11:14NDSURaJa Nelson 76 Yd Run (Griffin Crosa Kick)0–28
• Q2 13:12NDSUBarika Kpeenu 5 Yd Run (Griffin Crosa Kick)0–21
• Q1 1:51NDSUTK Marshall 1 Yd Run (Griffin Crosa Kick)0–14
• Q1 9:02NDSUTK Marshall 1 Yd Run (Griffin Crosa Kick)0–7

Model prediction

how the number is built

One or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.

Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →